文章基本信息

标题：Regression Modelling for Precipitation Prediction Using Genetic Algorithms
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作者：Asyrofa Rahmi ; Wayan Firdaus Mahmudy
期刊名称：TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control)
印刷版ISSN：2302-9293
出版年度：2017
卷号：15
期号：3
页码：1290-1300
DOI：10.12928/telkomnika.v15i3.4028
语种：English
出版社：Universitas Ahmad Dahlan
其他摘要：This paper discusses the formation of an appropriate regression model in precipitation prediction. Precipitation prediction has a major influence to multiply the agricultural production of potatoes in Tengger, East Java, Indonesia. Periodically, the precipitation has non-linear patterns. By using a non-linear approach, the prediction of precipitation produces more accurate results. Genetic algorithm (GA) functioning chooses precipitation period which forms the best model. To prevent early convergence, testing the best combination value of crossover rate and mutation rate is done. To test the accuracy of the predicted results are used Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as a benchmark. Based on the RMSE value of each method on every location, prediction using GA-Non-Linear Regression is better than Fuzzy Tsukamoto for each location. Compared to Generalized Space-Time Autoregressive-Seemingly Unrelated Regression (GSTAR-SUR), precipitation prediction using GA is better. This has been proved that for 3 locations GA is superior and on 1 location, GA has the least value of deviation level.
关键词：precipitation prediction;regression models;genetic algorithms