文章基本信息

标题：How generalizable is good judgment? A multi-task, multi-benchmark study
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作者：Mellers, Barbara A. ; Baker, Joshua D. ; Chen, Eva 等
期刊名称：Judgment and Decision Making
印刷版ISSN：1930-2975
出版年度：2017
卷号：12
期号：4
页码：369-381
出版社：Society for Judgment and Decision Making
摘要：Good judgment is often gauged against two gold standards â€“ coherence and correspondence. Judgments are coherent if they demonstrate consistency with the axioms of probability theory or propositional logic. Judgments are correspondent if they agree with ground truth. When gold standards are unavailable, silver standards such as consistency and discrimination can be used to evaluate judgment quality. Individuals are consistent if they assign similar judgments to comparable stimuli, and they discriminate if they assign different judgments to dissimilar stimuli. We ask whether â€œsuperforecastersâ€ , individuals with noteworthy correspondence skills (see Mellers et al., 2014) show superior performance on laboratory tasks assessing other standards of good judgment. Results showed that superforecasters either tied or out-performed less correspondent forecasters and undergraduates with no forecasting experience on tests of consistency, discrimination, and coherence. While multifaceted, good judgment may be a more unified than concept than previously thought.