文章基本信息

标题：Quantifying local predictability of the Lorenz system using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent
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作者：Xiao-Wei HUAI ; Jian-Ping LI ; Rui-Qiang DING 等
期刊名称：Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters
印刷版ISSN：1674-2834
电子版ISSN：2376-6123
出版年度：2017
卷号：10
期号：5
页码：372-378
DOI：10.1080/16742834.2017.1346457
出版社：Taylor and Francis Ltd
摘要：Abstract The nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) can be used as a quantification of the local predictability limit of chaotic systems. In this study, the phase-spatial structure of the local predictability limit over the Lorenz-63 system is investigated. It is found that the inner and outer rims of each regime of the attractor have a high probability of a longer than average local predictability limit, while the center part is the opposite. However, the distribution of the local predictability limit is nonuniformly organized, with adjacent points sometimes showing quite distinct error growth. The source of local predictability is linked to the local dynamics, which is related to the region in the phase space and the duration on the current regime.
关键词：Nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent ; local predictability limit ; chaotic system ; Lorenz system