文章基本信息

标题：Statistical Modeling of Malaria Incidences in Apac District, Uganda
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作者：Ayo Eunice ; Anthony Wanjoya ; Livingstone Luboobi 等
期刊名称：Open Journal of Statistics
印刷版ISSN：2161-718X
电子版ISSN：2161-7198
出版年度：2017
卷号：07
期号：06
页码：901-919
DOI：10.4236/ojs.2017.76063
语种：English
出版社：Scientific Research Publishing
摘要：Malaria is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in Apac district, Northern Uganda. Hence, the study aimed to model malaria incidences with respect to climate variables for the period 2007 to 2016 in Apac district. Data on monthly malaria incidence in Apac district for the period January 2007 to December 2016 was obtained from the Ministry of health, Uganda whereas climate data was obtained from Uganda National Meteorological Authority. Generalized linear models, Poisson and negative binomial regression models were employed to analyze the data. These models were used to fit monthly malaria incidences as a function of monthly rainfall and average temperature. Negative binomial model provided a better fit as compared to the Poisson regression model as indicated by the residual plots and residual deviances. The Pearson correlation test indicated a strong positive association between rainfall and malaria incidences. High malaria incidences were observed in the months of August, September and November. This study showed a significant association between monthly malaria incidence and climate variables that is rainfall and temperature. This study provided useful information for predicting malaria incidence and developing the future warning system. This is an important tool for policy makers to put in place effective control measures for malaria early enough.
关键词：Malaria Incidence;Climate Variables;Poisson Regression;Negative Binomial Regression;Generalized Linear Model;Apac District