文章基本信息

标题：Comparison of Two Time Series Decomposition Methods: Least Squares and Buys-Ballot Methods
本地全文：下载
作者：I. S. Iwueze ; E. C. Nwogu ; V. U. Nlebedim 等
期刊名称：Open Journal of Statistics
印刷版ISSN：2161-718X
电子版ISSN：2161-7198
出版年度：2016
卷号：06
期号：06
页码：1123-1137
DOI：10.4236/ojs.2016.66091
语种：English
出版社：Scientific Research Publishing
摘要：This paper discusses comparison of two time series decomposition methods: The Least Squares Estimation (LSE) and Buys-Ballot Estimation (BBE) methods. As noted by Iwueze and Nwogu (2014), there exists a research gap for the choice of appropriate model for decomposition and detection of presence of seasonal effect in a series model. Estimates of trend parameters and seasonal indices are all that are needed to fill the research gap. However, these estimates are obtainable through the Least Squares Estimation (LSE) and Buys-Ballot Estimation (BBE) methods. Hence, there is need to compare estimates of the two methods and recommend. The comparison of the two methods is done using the Accuracy Measures (Mean Error (ME)), Mean Square Error (MSE), the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results from simulated series show that for the additive model; the summary statistics (ME, MSE and MAE) for the two estimation methods and for all the selected trending curves are equal in all the simulations both in magnitude and direction. For the multiplicative model, results show that when a series is dominated by trend, the estimates of the parameters by both methods become less precise and differ more widely from each other. However, if conditions for successful transformation (using the logarithmic transform in linearizing the multiplicative model to additive model) are met, both of them give similar results.
关键词：Decomposition Models;Least Squares Estimates;Buys-Ballot Estimates;Accuracy Measures;Successful Transformation;Trending Curves