文章基本信息

标题：Time Series Modelling of the Contribution of Agriculture to GDP of Bangladesh
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作者：Sayedul Anam ; Mina Mahbub Hossain
期刊名称：European Journal of Business and Management
印刷版ISSN：2222-2839
电子版ISSN：2222-2839
出版年度：2012
卷号：4
期号：5
页码：111-122
语种：English
出版社：The International Institute for Science, Technology and Education (IISTE)
摘要：The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a basic measure of a country's overall economic performance. Bangladesh is basically an agriculture country and therefore agriculture plays important role on GDP. To assist in the decision making process, this article proposes a time series model based on the contribution of Agriculture to GDP from fiscal year 1972 to 2010. In this paper, we have identified ARIMA (1, 2, 1) model as a reasonable model to forecast the yearly growth rate of GDP of Bangladesh. We also found that the GARCH (1, 1) model with a specified set of parameters is the best fit for our concerned data set. The proposed models help to identify the influence of the agricultural sector on GDP.