文章基本信息

标题：The 2015 drought in Washington State: a harbinger of things to come?
本地全文：下载
作者：Miriam E Marlier ; Mu Xiao ; Ruth Engel 等
期刊名称：Environmental Research Letters
印刷版ISSN：1748-9326
电子版ISSN：1748-9326
出版年度：2017
卷号：12
期号：11
页码：114008
DOI：10.1088/1748-9326/aa8fde
语种：English
出版社：IOP Publishing Ltd
摘要：Washington State experienced widespread drought in 2015 and the largest burned area in the observational record, attributable in part to exceptionally low winter snow accumulation and high summer temperatures. We examine 2015 drought severity in the Cascade and Olympic mountains relative to the historical climatology (1950–present) and future climate projections (mid-21st century) for a mid-range global greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Although winter precipitation was near normal, the regional winter temperature anomaly was +2.1 °C (+2.0σ) in 2015, consistent with projections of a +2.3 °C (+2.2σ) temperature change and near normal precipitation in the future, relative to the climatology. April 1 snow water equivalent in 2015, −325 mm (−1.5σ), and the future, −252 mm (−1.1σ), were substantially lower than the climatology. Wildfire potential, as indicated by dead fuel moisture content, was higher in 2015 than mid-21st century mean projections. In contrast to most historical droughts, which have been driven by precipitation deficits, our results suggest that 2015 is a useful analog of typical conditions in the Pacific Northwest by the mid-21st century.