文章基本信息

标题：Global and regional trends in particulate air pollution and attributable health burden over the past 50 years
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作者：E W Butt ; S T Turnock ; R Rigby 等
期刊名称：Environmental Research Letters
印刷版ISSN：1748-9326
电子版ISSN：1748-9326
出版年度：2017
卷号：12
期号：10
页码：104017
DOI：10.1088/1748-9326/aa87be
语种：English
出版社：IOP Publishing Ltd
摘要：Long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM_2.5, mass of particles with an aerodynamic dry diameter of 2.5 μm) is a major risk factor to the global burden of disease. Previous studies have focussed on present day or future health burdens attributed to ambient PM_2.5. Few studies have estimated changes in PM_2.5 and attributable health burdens over the last few decades, a period where air quality has changed rapidly. Here we used the HadGEM3-UKCA coupled chemistry-climate model, integrated exposure-response relationships, demographic and background disease data to provide the first estimate of the changes in global and regional ambient PM_2.5 concentrations and attributable health burdens over the period 1960 to 2009. Over this period, global mean population-weighted PM_2.5 concentrations increased by 38%, dominated by increases in China and India. Global attributable deaths increased by 89% to 124% over the period 1960 to 2009, dominated by large increases in China and India. Population growth and ageing contributed mostly to the increases in attributable deaths in China and India, highlighting the importance of demographic trends. In contrast, decreasing PM_2.5 concentrations and background disease dominated the reduction in attributable health burden in Europe and the United States. Our results shed light on how future projected trends in demographics and uncertainty in the exposure–response relationship may provide challenges for future air quality policy in Asia.