文章基本信息

标题：The Halloween effect on the agricultural commodities markets
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作者：Peter Arendas
期刊名称：Agricultural Economics
印刷版ISSN：0139-570X
电子版ISSN：1805-9295
出版年度：2017
卷号：63
期号：10
页码：441-448
DOI：10.17221/45/2016-AGRICECON
出版社：Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences
摘要：The financial markets are impacted by various seasonal anomalies. One of the best known of them is the Halloween effect. The Halloween effect means that the summer period (May–October) asset returns are lower compared to the winter period (November–April) asset returns. In the paper, price series of 20 major agricultural commodities over the 1980–2015-time period are tested for the presence of the Halloween effect. The data show that 15 out of the 20 commodities recorded a higher average winter period than summer period returns and in 10 cases, the differences are statistically significant. The data also show that out of the 5 commodities with higher summer period returns, only in the case of poultry the differences are statistically significant.
关键词：abnormal returns; agriculture; commodity ; investing; seasonal anomaly