文章基本信息

标题：Optimal Parameter Selection for Support Vector Machine Based on Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm: A Case Study of Grid-Connected PV System Power Prediction
本地全文：下载
作者：Xiang-ming Gao ; Shi-feng Yang ; San-bo Pan 等
期刊名称：Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience
印刷版ISSN：1687-5265
电子版ISSN：1687-5273
出版年度：2017
卷号：2017
DOI：10.1155/2017/7273017
出版社：Hindawi Publishing Corporation
摘要：Predicting the output power of photovoltaic system with nonstationarity and randomness, an output power prediction model for grid-connected PV systems is proposed based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized with an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. First, according to the weather forecast data sets on the prediction date, the time series data of output power on a similar day with 15-minute intervals are built. Second, the time series data of the output power are decomposed into a series of components, including some intrinsic mode components IMFn and a trend component Res, at different scales using EMD. The corresponding SVM prediction model is established for each IMF component and trend component, and the SVM model parameters are optimized with the artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of each model are reconstructed, and the predicted values of the output power of the grid-connected PV system can be obtained. The prediction model is tested with actual data, and the results show that the power prediction model based on the EMD and ABC-SVM has a faster calculation speed and higher prediction accuracy than do the single SVM prediction model and the EMD-SVM prediction model without optimization.