文章基本信息

标题：Synthetic Population Dynamics: A Model of Household Demography
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作者：Nicholas Geard ; James M McCaw ; Alan Dorin 等
期刊名称：Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
印刷版ISSN：1460-7425
出版年度：2013
卷号：16
期号：1
页码：1-25
DOI：10.18564/jasss.2098
出版社：University of Surrey, Department of Sociology
摘要：Computer-simulated synthetic populations are used by researchers and policy makers to help understand and predict the aggregate behaviour of large numbers of individuals. Research aims include explaining the structural and dynamic characteristics of populations, and the implications of these characteristics for dynamic processes such as the spread of disease, opinions and social norms. Policy makers planning for the future economic, healthcare or infrastructure needs of a population want to be able to evaluate the possible effects of their policies. In both cases, it is desirable that the structure and dynamic behaviour of synthetic populations be statistically congruent to that of real populations. Here, we present a parsimonious individual-based model for generating synthetic population dynamics that focuses on the effects that demographic change have on the structure and composition of households.
关键词：Demography; Synthetic Populations; Household Dynamics; Individual-Based Models