文章基本信息

标题：Policy Advice Derived from Simulation Models
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作者：Thomas Brenner ; Claudia Werker
期刊名称：Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
印刷版ISSN：1460-7425
出版年度：2009
卷号：12
期号：4
页码：1-16
出版社：University of Surrey, Department of Sociology
摘要：When advising policy we face the fundamental problem that economic processes are uncertain. Consequently, policy can err. In this paper we show how the use of simulation models can reduce policy errors by inferring empirically reliable and meaningful statements about economic processes. We suggest that policy is best based on so-called abductive simulation models, which help to better understand how policy measures can influence economic processes. We show that abductive simulation models use a combination of theoretical and empirical analysis based on different data sets. By way of example we show what policy can learn with the help of abductive simulation models, namely how policy measures can influence the emergence of a regional cluster.
关键词：Policy Advice; Simulation Models; Uncertainty; Methodology