期刊名称:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN:0027-8424
电子版ISSN:1091-6490
出版年度:2012
卷号:109
期号:12
页码:E680-E689
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1110586109
语种:English
出版社:The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要:Understanding how interdependence among systems affects cascading behaviors is increasingly important across many fields of science and engineering. Inspired by cascades of load shedding in coupled electric grids and other infrastructure, we study the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model on modular random graphs and on graphs based on actual, interdependent power grids. Starting from two isolated networks, adding some connectivity between them is beneficial, for it suppresses the largest cascades in each system. Too much interconnectivity, however, becomes detrimental for two reasons. First, interconnections open pathways for neighboring networks to inflict large cascades. Second, as in real infrastructure, new interconnections increase capacity and total possible load, which fuels even larger cascades. Using a multitype branching process and simulations we show these effects and estimate the optimal level of interconnectivity that balances their trade-offs. Such equilibria could allow, for example, power grid owners to minimize the largest cascades in their grid. We also show that asymmetric capacity among interdependent networks affects the optimal connectivity that each prefers and may lead to an arms race for greater capacity. Our multitype branching process framework provides building blocks for better prediction of cascading processes on modular random graphs and on multitype networks in general.
关键词:vulnerability of infrastructure ; complex networks