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  • 标题:Forecasting elections in Europe: Synthetic models
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Michael S. Lewis-Beck ; Ruth Dassonneville
  • 期刊名称:Research & Politics
  • 印刷版ISSN:2053-1680
  • 电子版ISSN:2053-1680
  • 出版年度:2015
  • 卷号:2
  • 期号:1
  • 页码:1-11
  • DOI:10.1177/2053168014565128
  • 摘要:Scientific work on national election forecasting has become most developed for the United States case, where three dominant approaches can be identified: Structuralists, Aggregators, and Synthesizers. For European cases, election forecasting models remain almost exclusively Structuralist. Here we join together structural modeling and aggregate polling results, to form a hybrid, which we label a Synthetic Model. This model contains a political economy core, to which poll numbers are added (to tap omitted variables). We apply this model to a sample of three Western European countries: Germany, Ireland, and the United Kingdom. This combinatory strategy appears to offer clear forecasting gains, in terms of lead and accuracy.
  • 关键词:Election forecasting; synthetic model; European countries
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