文章基本信息

标题：Effect of Changes in Breast-feeding on the Age Distribution of HTLV-I Carriers Using a Mathematical Model
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作者：Shuji Hashimoto ; Kazuo Fukutomi ; Hiroko Mori 等
期刊名称：Journal of Epidemiology
印刷版ISSN：0917-5040
电子版ISSN：1349-9092
出版年度：1991
卷号：1
期号：1
页码：1a-6
DOI：10.2188/jea.1.1a
出版社：Japan Epidemiological Association
摘要：Based on a mathematical model of human T-cell leukemia virus type I (HTLV-I) transmission, the non-vanishing condition of HTLV-I was derived, and the effect of changes in breastfeeding patterns on the prevalence of HTLV-I was evaluated. The non-vanishing condition was shown to be a>1/(1+b), where a is the probability of mother-to-child transmission and b is the probability of husband-to-wife transmission. This condition implies that if a is under 0.5, HTLV-I cannot be sustained in populations over a long term. The age-specific prevalences in 1985 were calculated under this model and the assumption of changes in breast-feeding over the period 1925-1985, based on information from many surveys on breast-feeding in Japan. The prevalence increased with age, like the prevalences observed in many populations in Japan. These findings suggest that the probability of mother-to-child transmission had been over 0.5 and was reduced by the spread of compound milk and the shorter duration of breast-feeding in recent years in Japan, and that it has resulted in a decrease in HTLV-I carriers among younger age groups. J Epidemiol, 1991 ; 1 : 1-5.
关键词：HTLV-I;ATL;breast-feeding;age distribution