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标题：Second Moment Method to Evaluate Human Health Risks of Climate Change
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作者：Warren T. Piver ; Robert H. Shumway ; Rahman S. Azari 等
期刊名称：Journal of Epidemiology
印刷版ISSN：0917-5040
电子版ISSN：1349-9092
出版年度：1996
卷号：6
期号：4sup
页码：149-151
DOI：10.2188/jea.6.4sup_149
出版社：Japan Epidemiological Association
摘要：A direct impact on human health as a result of increasing atmospheric concentrations of C02 could be more frequent exposure to increased daily average surface temperatures and increased daily average atmospheric concentrations of air pollutants. These exposures would occur most often in urban areas. To evaluate the impact of the combined exposures to increasing temperatures and air pollutant concentrations on the risk of heat and air pollution mortality, a second moment reliability method of analysis was used. The method required distribution functions for mortality, temperature and air pollutant concentrations. To demonstrate how this method can be used to predict changes in mortality risk, data were used on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, daily average temperatures and daily average air pollutant concentrations for the city of Los Angeles from 1970 to 1979. Using time-series analysis of these data, regression formulas for mortality for different ages groups were quadratic functions of temperature and linear functions of air pollutant concentrations. At fixed temperatures, the second moment method was used to show that specific reductions in mortality for all age groups could be achieved by specific reductions in air pollutant concentrations. This provides a method to evaluate mortality risk reductions of technologies being developed to mitigate climate change because reductions in atmospheric concentrations of C02 would usually be accompanied by decreasing concentrations of air pollutants. J Epidemiol , 1996 ; 6 : S149-Sl51.
关键词：climate change;temperature;air pollution;cardiovascular and respiratory mortality;secondmoment method;mortality risk reduction;mitigation technology evaluation