文章基本信息

标题：Climate change both facilitates and inhibits invasive plant ranges in New England
本地全文：下载
作者：Cory Merow ; Sarah Treanor Bois ; Jenica M. Allen 等
期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2017
卷号：114
期号：16
页码：E3276-E3284
DOI：10.1073/pnas.1609633114
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：Forecasting ecological responses to climate change, invasion, and their interaction must rely on understanding underlying mechanisms. However, such forecasts require extrapolation into new locations and environments. We linked demography and environment using experimental biogeography to forecast invasive and native species’ potential ranges under present and future climate in New England, United States to overcome issues of extrapolation in novel environments. We studied two potentially nonequilibrium invasive plants’ distributions, Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) and Berberis thunbergii (Japanese barberry), each paired with their native ecological analogs to better understand demographic drivers of invasions. Our models predict that climate change will considerably reduce establishment of a currently prolific invader ( A. petiolata ) throughout New England driven by poor demographic performance in warmer climates. In contrast, invasion of B. thunbergii will be facilitated because of higher growth and germination in warmer climates, with higher likelihood to establish farther north and in closed canopy habitats in the south. Invasion success is in high fecundity for both invasive species and demographic compensation for A . petiolata relative to native analogs. For A. petiolata , simulations suggest that eradication efforts would require unrealistic efficiency; hence, management should focus on inhibiting spread into colder, currently unoccupied areas, understanding source–sink dynamics, and understanding community dynamics should A. petiolata (which is allelopathic) decline. Our results—based on considerable differences with correlative occurrence models typically used for such biogeographic forecasts—suggest the urgency of incorporating mechanism into range forecasting and invasion management to understand how climate change may alter current invasion patterns.
关键词：demography ; integral projection model ; garlic mustard ; Japanese barberry ; species distribution model