文章基本信息

标题：Skilful seasonal predictions for the European energy industry
本地全文：下载
作者：Robin T Clark ; Philip E Bett ; Hazel E Thornton 等
期刊名称：Environmental Research Letters
印刷版ISSN：1748-9326
电子版ISSN：1748-9326
出版年度：2017
卷号：12
期号：2
页码：024002
DOI：10.1088/1748-9326/aa57ab
语种：English
出版社：IOP Publishing Ltd
摘要：We assess the utility of seasonal forecasts for the energy industry by showing how recently-established predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter allows predictability of near-surface wind speed and air temperature and therefore energy supply and demand respectively. Our seasonal prediction system (GloSea5) successfully reproduces the influence of the NAO on European climate, leading to skilful forecasts of wind speed and wind power and hence wind driven energy supply. Temperature is skilfully forecast using the observed temperature-NAO relationship and the NAO forecast. Using the correlation between forecast NAO and observed GB electricity demand, we demonstrate that skilful predictions of winter demand are also achievable on seasonal timescales well in advance of the season. Finally, good reliability of probabilistic forecasts of above/below-average wind speed and temperature is also demonstrated.