文章基本信息

标题：Modelling the impact of macroeconomic variables on aggregate corporate insolvency: case of Croatia
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作者：Tomas Žiković, Ivana
期刊名称：Economic Research
印刷版ISSN：1331-677X
出版年度：2016
卷号：29
期号：1
页码：515-528
DOI：10.1080/1331677X.2016.1175727
语种：English
出版社：Juraj Dobrila University of Pula, Department of Economics and Tourism 'Dr. Mijo Mirkovic'
摘要：The majority of research papers dealing with corporate failure and insolvency in transition countries use a combination of financial ratios in investigating corporate failures, i.e., the microeconomic approach. By relying solely on the microeconomic approach, it is not possible to completely capture the complexity of business operations. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in exploring the predictive power of macroeconomic variables in forecasting insolvencies. As the macroeconomic approach has been applied mainly in the analysis of developed economies, this article investigates the influence of macroeconomic variables on aggregate corporate insolvency in Croatia, using the vector error-correction model (VECM) for the period 2000–2011. The results have shown a long-run dynamic connection between the corporate insolvency rate and the rate of unemployment while corporate credits, long-term interest rates and industrial production have a short-term effect on the corporate insolvency rate.
关键词：Corporate insolvency; macroeconomic variables; vector error-correction model (VECM)