文章基本信息

标题：THE CONSTRUCTION OF A VISITOR NUMBER FORECASTING MODEL FOR THE SHIHMEN RESERVOIR RECREATION AREA USING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TECHNOLOGY
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作者：HAN-CHEN HUANG
期刊名称：Journal of Theoretical and Applied Information Technology
印刷版ISSN：1992-8645
电子版ISSN：1817-3195
出版年度：2013
卷号：54
期号：1
出版社：Journal of Theoretical and Applied
摘要：Visitor number is an important reference for recreation area managers when developing tourism and marketing plans, and recreation area managers must be able to precisely forecast visitor numbers to possess sufficient information for establishing management strategies and plans. Developing an effective and accurate visitor number forecasting model can allow managers to respond in advance and adjust operating and development directions accordingly. Consequently, this study used an artificial neural network (ANN) to establish a visitor number forecasting model. The results of verification using actual data indicated that the absolute relative error (ARE) of the model developed in this study was 17.6565% and the correlation was 0.773. These results show that the model is highly accurate for forecasting visitor number.
关键词：Recreation Area; Tourism; Forecasting; Artificial Neural Network; Visitor Number