文章基本信息

标题：Timing of Train Disposition: Towards Early Passenger Rerouting in Case of Delays
本地全文：下载
作者：Martin Lemnian ; Ralf R{\"u}ckert ; Steffen Rechner 等
期刊名称：OASIcs : OpenAccess Series in Informatics
电子版ISSN：2190-6807
出版年度：2014
卷号：42
页码：122-137
DOI：10.4230/OASIcs.ATMOS.2014.122
出版社：Schloss Dagstuhl -- Leibniz-Zentrum fuer Informatik
摘要：Passenger-friendly train disposition is a challenging, highly complex online optimization problem with uncertain and incomplete information about future delays. In this paper we focus on the timing within the disposition process. We introduce three different classification schemes to predict as early as possible the status of a transfer: whether it will almost surely break, is so critically delayed that it requires manual disposition, or can be regarded as only slightly uncertain or as being safe. The three approaches use lower bounds on travel times, historical distributions of delay data, and fuzzy logic, respectively. In experiments with real delay data we achieve an excellent classification rate. Furthermore, using realistic passenger flows we observe that there is a significant potential to reduce the passenger delay if an early rerouting strategy is applied.
关键词：train delays; event-activity model; timing of decisions; passenger flows; passenger rerouting