文章基本信息

标题：Explaining the German hog price cycle: A nonlinear dynamics approach
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作者：Ernst Berg ; Ray Huffaker
期刊名称：Proceedings in Food System Dynamics
印刷版ISSN：2194-511X
出版年度：2015
页码：15-35
语种：English
出版社：Proceedings in Food System Dynamics
摘要：We investigated German hog-price dynamics with an innovative ‘diagnostic’ modeling approach. Hog-price cycles are conventionally modeled stochastically—most recently as randomly-shifting sinusoidal oscillations. Alternatively, we applied nonlinear time series analysis to empirically reconstruct a deterministic, low-dimensional, and nonlinear attractor from observed hog prices. We next formulated a structural (explanatory) model of the pork industry to synthesize the empirical hog-price attractor. Model simulations demonstrate that low price-elasticity of demand contributes to aperiodic price cycling – a well know result – and further reveal two other important driving factors: investment irreversibility (caused by high specificity of technology), and liquidity-driven investment behavior of German farmers.