文章基本信息

标题：Robust project management with the tilted beta distribution
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作者：Eugene D. Hahn ; María del Mar López Martín
期刊名称：SORT-Statistics and Operations Research Transactions
印刷版ISSN：2013-8830
出版年度：2015
卷号：39
期号：2
页码：253-272
语种：English
出版社：SORT- Statistics and Operations Research Transactions
摘要：Recent years have seen an increase in the development of robust approaches for stochastic project management methodologies such as PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique). These robust approaches allow for elevated likelihoods of outlying events, thereby widening interval estimates of project completion times. However, little attention has been paid to the fact that outlying events and/or expert judgments may be asymmetric. We propose the tilted beta distribution which permits both elevated likelihoods of outlying events as well as an asymmetric representation of these events. We examine the use of the tilted beta distribution in PERT with respect to other project management distributions.
关键词：Activity times, finite mixture, PERT, tilted beta distribution, robust project management, sensitivity analysis