期刊名称:International Journal on Food System Dynamics
印刷版ISSN:1869-6945
出版年度:2010
卷号:1
期号:3
页码:184-193
语种:English
出版社:CentMA
摘要:Failure of economic models to anticipate the global financial crisis illustrates the need for modeling to better capture complex real-world dynamics. Conventional models—in which economic variables evolve toward equilibria or fluctuate about equilibria in response to exogenous random shocks—are ill-equipped to portray complex real-world dynamics in which economic variables may cycle aperiodically along low-dimensional ‘strange attractors’. We present a method developed in the physics literature—‘phase space reconstruction’—that reconstructs strange attractors present in real-world dynamical systems using time series data on a single variable. Phase space reconstruction provides pictures of real-world dynamics that can guide model specification.
关键词:phase space reconstruction;time series data;economic dynamics