文章基本信息

标题：Nowcasting Norway
本地全文：下载
作者：Matteo Luciani ; Lorenzo Ricci
期刊名称：International Journal of Central Banking
印刷版ISSN：1815-4654
出版年度：2014
出版社：IJCB Publications Fulfillment
摘要：We produce predictions of Norwegian GDP. To this end, we estimate a Bayesian dynamic factor model on a panel of fourteen variables (all followed closely by market operators) ranging from 1990 to 2011. By means of a pseudo real-time exercise, we show that the Bayesian dynamic factor model performs well both in terms of point forecast and in terms of density forecasts. Results indicate that our model outperforms standard univariate benchmark models, that it performs as well as the Bloomberg survey, and that it outperforms the predictions published by the Norges Bank in its Monetary Policy Report