文章基本信息

标题：Supplementary Paper Series for the "Comprehensive Assessment" (2): Developments in the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan
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作者：Shigeaki Fujiwara ; Yuto Iwasaki ; Ichiro Muto 等
期刊名称：Bank of Japan Review
出版年度：2016
卷号：2016
出版社：Bank of Japan
摘要：The natural rate of interest is the real interest rate at which economic activity and prices neitheraccelerate nor decelerate. The basic mechanism of monetary easing -- regardless of whether it isconducted through conventional or unconventional policy means -- consists of driving the real interestrate below the natural rate of interest. Theoretically, therefore, in order to assess the effects of monetaryeasing, it is necessary to estimate the natural rate of interest, which is by nature unobservable, anddetermine whether the real interest rate is higher or lower, relative to the estimated natural rate ofinterest. This paper estimates the natural rate of interest using a number of different approaches. Whilethe estimates differ to some extent depending on the approach taken, the estimation results suggest thatit is likely that Japan's natural rate of interest is currently at a low level of around 0 percent