文章基本信息

标题：Trend and Variability Analysis and Forecasting of Sunshine-Hour in Bangladesh
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作者：JA Syeda ; M Nasser
期刊名称：Journal of Environmental Science and Natural Resources
印刷版ISSN：2408-8633
出版年度：2013
卷号：5
期号：2
页码：109-118
语种：English
出版社：Bangladesh Society for Conservation of Environment and Natural Resources
摘要：An attempt has been taken to investigate the trend and variability pattern for annual and seasonal (Three crop seasons) average sunshine-hours (ASSH) for six divisional stations of Bangladesh: Dhaka, Khulna, Rajshahi, Barisal, Sylhet and Chittagong. The monthly ASSH (2008-2011) are forecasted applying the univariate Box-Jenkin’s ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) modelling technique on the basis of the minimum root mean square forecasting error. Several diagnostic techniques are used for detection of outlier and residual’s stationarity and normality. The significant negative rates are observed for linear trend (LT) of Annual and Seasonal Average ASSH in all the six stations with only one minor positive rate for Prekharif season in Khulna. The findings support that the climate of Bangladesh is changing in terms of sunshine-hour which may have tremendous effects in the agricultural production. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/jesnr.v5i2.14802 J. Environ. Sci. & Natural Resources, 5(2): 109-118 2012
关键词：Bangladesh;Forecasting;Sunshine-Hour