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标题：A Mid-Term Forecast of Maximum Demand for Electricity in Poland
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作者：Jacek Brożyna ; Grzegorz Mentel ; Beata Szetela 等
期刊名称：Montenegrin Journal of Economics
印刷版ISSN：1800-5845
电子版ISSN：1800-6698
出版年度：2016
卷号：12
期号：2
页码：73-88
DOI：10.14254/1800-5845.2016/12-1/5
出版社：Economic Laboratory for Transition Research Podgorica
摘要：Forecasting of demand for electricity plays an important role inplanning of seasonal operations and expansion of power facilities.Power plants must ensure the continuity of supply of energy, withoutproducing the excess due to problems associated with its storage,and at the same time they must be prepared for increased demande.g. during the periods of cold weather. These factors make thatenergy companies need accurate forecasts, which in the best waywill help plan all the processes associated with this activity. In thearticle, based on data from the years 2002-2015, the medium-termforecast of electricity demand in Poland until the end of 2017 hasbeen presented. Forecasts have been determined using theexponential smoothing Winters and SARIMA models, and theirresults have been compared with each other and the months, whena rise and a fall for energy demand is predicted, have been quoted
关键词：electricity demand;forecasting;seasonality;exponential smoothing;Winters;SARIMA