文章基本信息

标题：Is fiscal consolidation self-defeating? A Panel-VAR analysis for the Euro area countries
本地全文：下载
作者：Maria Grazia Attinasi ; Luca Metelli
期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2016
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：This paper studies the eects of scal consolidation on the debt-to-GDP ratio of11 Euro area countries. Using a quarterly scal Panel VAR allows us to trace outthe dynamics of the debt-to-GDP ratio following a scal shock and to disentangle themain channels through which scal consolidation aects the debt ratio. We dene ascal consolidation episode as self-defeating if the debt-to-GDP ratio does not decreasecompared to the pre-shock level. Our main nding is that when consolidation is im-plemented via a cut in government primary spending, the debt ratio, after an initialincrease, falls to below its pre-shock level. When instead the consolidation is imple-mented via an increase in government revenues, the initial increase in the debt ratio isstronger and, eventually, the debt ratio reverts to its pre-shock level, resulting in whatwe call self-defeating austerity.
关键词：Fiscal consolidation; Debt trajectory; Panel VAR; Fiscal stress