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标题：VELOCITY IN THE LONG RUN: MONEY AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION
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作者：Antonio Mele ; Radoslaw Stefanski
期刊名称：Discussion Papers in Economics / Department of Economics, University of Surrey
出版年度：2016
出版社：University of Surrey
摘要：Monetary velocity declines as economies grow. We argue that this is due to the process ofstructural transformation - the shift of workers from agricultural to non-agricultural productionassociated with rising income. A calibrated, two-sector model of structural transformation withmonetary and non-monetary trade accurately generates the long run monetary velocity of theUS between 1869 and 2013 as well as the velocity of a panel of 92 countries between 1980 and2010. Three lessons arise from our analysis: 1) Developments in agriculture, rather than nonagriculture,are key in driving monetary velocity; 2) Inflationary policies are disproportionatelymore costly in richer than in poorer countries; and 3) Nominal prices and inflation rates are not‘always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon’: the composition of output influences moneydemand and hence the secular trends of price levels.
关键词：structural transformation; monetary shares; velocity; agricultural productivity; nonmonetary;exchange