Artificial intelligent systems architecture for strategic business decision making: a prototype neural expert system with what-if functions.
Lee, Kun Chang ; Han, Jae Ho ; Lee, C. Christopher 等
INTRODUCTION
Recently, a number of researchers in OR/MS (Operations
Research/Management Science) have attempted to build intelligent expert
systems for solving a wide variety of problems including production
scheduling, finance, personnel, marketing, and accounting, etc (Waterman
1990). Common motivation underlying these researches is to intelligently
assist decision-makers that have to solve poorly structured problems.
The strategic planning problem is one of highly ill-structured OR/MS
problems. Strategy, in effect, is the managerial action plan for
achieving organizational objectives; it is mirrored in the pattern of
moves and approaches devised by management to produce the desired
performance. Strategy is therefore the how of pursuing the
organization's mission and reaching target objectives (Thompson,
Strickland III 1990). Today's managers have to think strategically
about their company's position and about the impact of changing
conditions. They have to monitor the external situation closely to know
when the current strategy needs to be changed accordingly. The
advantages of strategic thinking and conscious strategic planning
activity include (1) providing better guidance to the entire
organization on the crucial point of "what it is we are trying to
achieve," (2) making management more alert to change, new
opportunities, and threatening developments, (3) providing managers with
a much-needed rationale that argues strongly for steering resources into
strategy-supportive, results-producing areas, (4) helping unify the
numerous strategy-related decisions by managers across the organization,
and (5) creating a more proactive management posture and counteracting
tendencies for decisions to be reactive and defensive. The advantage of
being proactive versus reactive is that long-term performance is
enhanced. Business history shows that high-performing enterprises often
initiate and lead, not just react and defend. They see strategy as a
tool for securing a sustainable competitive advantage and for pushing
performance to superior levels.
Computer-based strategic planning systems are playing an
increasingly relevant role in assisting both diagnosis of strategic
problems likely to threaten the organization's performance and
suggesting strategic alternatives to solve those problems. When
designing such systems, certain objectives must be considered carefully.
First of all, strategy analysts or managers in organizations should be
able to use reliable, low-cost, user-friendly instruments--for example,
programs running on personal computers. Nevertheless, to meet strategy
analysts' requirements, processing time should be relatively short.
Since any failure of such systems could prove seriously harmful to an
organization's competitive position and performance, both fault
tolerance and reliability are the crucial properties to be satisfied by
such computer-based strategic planning systems. At the same time, the
strategy analysts must be provided with as much information as possible
about how the processing is carried out.
In an effort to accomplish these objectives, developers of computer
aids for strategy analysts face a variety of problems deriving from the
complex nature of strategic planning-related data. Such data is
characterized by an intrinsic variability, which is the result of
spontaneous internal mechanisms or as a reaction to occasional external
stimuli. Furthermore, most events related to the strategic planning
result from the interaction of many factors and sub-factors whose
different effects are almost indistinguishable.
Strategy analysts are accustomed to such problems, but their skills
cannot easily be incorporated into computer programs. Most strategic
planning decisions are based on experience as well as on complex
inferences and extensive strategic knowledge. Such experience and/or
knowledge cannot be condensed into a small set of relations or rules,
and this limits the performance of algorithmic approaches or
conventional expert systems approaches to many strategic planning tasks.
The breadth of strategic planning knowledge is therefore an obstacle to
the creation of symbolic knowledge bases (for example, IF-THEN rules)
comprehensive enough to cope with the diverse exceptions that occur
frequently in practice. Experience-based learning, fault tolerance,
graceful degradation, and signal enhancement are properties of neural
networks that make the neural network-assisted expert systems effective
in solving the strategic planning problems. This points to a way for
implementing reliable computer-based strategic planning systems that can
closely emulate a strategy analyst's expertise.
This paper presents the basic part of a prototype system named
StratPlanner (Strategy Planner), which is a neural expert system for
diagnosing strategic problems and suggesting strategic alternatives that
seem appropriate for the current competitive situations. We will mainly
focus on two issues: (1) the design of a neural expert system which is
suitable for performing the "what-if" and/or
"goal-seeking" analyses and (2) the competence of neural
expert systems-driven strategic planning process in real strategic
planning situations. Section 2 briefly discusses a basic theory of
strategic planning and neural networks. Strategic planning techniques
that are used in this paper are introduced in section 3. Inference
mechanisms--forward inference and backward inference--are presented in
section 4. In section 5, the performance of a prototype StratPlanner is
illustrated with extensive experimental results. This paper is ended
with concluding remarks in section 6.
STRATEGIC PLANNING AND NEURAL NETWORKS
A survey of the huge volume of contemporary practical and
theoretical literature on neural network analysis yields the following
three observations:
A There exists a great variety of viewpoints and approaches to
neural network analysis.
B A general design principle that will help determine an
appropriate architecture of neural networks for a particular application
does not exist. It varies with the characteristics of applications.
C Major emphasis has been put upon experimental results obtained
from extensive simulations, not upon rigorous theoretical derivations or
proofs.
These general observations also prevail in neural network
applications to OR/MS topics. The neural network analysis has embraced a
very broad scope, from early success with neuron-like models called
perceptrons (Rosenblatt 1961) and Adalines (Widrow, Hoff 1960) in the
1960's to the cooperative-competitive neural networks in the
1970's. Hopfield (1982) suggested an iterative computational neural
network for associative retrieval and optimization, triggering a current
explosion of interests in neural networks. Its theoretical basis was
provided by many researchers. Some significant contributions have been
made to the memory and learning models using competitive learning for
autonomous feature extraction (Rumelhart, Zipser 1985) and delta
learning for generalized information storage (McClelland, Rumelhart
1985). By extending these contributions, Rumelhart and his colleagues
(Rumelhart, Hinto, Williams 1986) revived the backpropagation (sometimes
called generalized delta) learning algorithm for the multilayer
perceptrons, which has been successfully used in many experimental works
(Lippmann 1987). Literature reporting the neural network applications to
the OR/MS problems has recently begun to appear. White (White 1988)
suggested a neural network analysis for economic prediction using the
IBM daily stock returns data. Some neural network studies were performed
to analyze a stock market prediction. Nonetheless, there exist a few
studies that use neural networks for solving the strategic planning
problems.
Neural networks have useful properties as follows (Gallant 1988,
Zeidenberg 1990):
1 Generalization capability: When the training set contains noisy
or inconsistent examples, during the learning phase the neural network
can extract the hidden regularities residing in the set. After learning,
the neural network can generalize, giving correct responses even in the
presence of examples that are not included in the training set.
2 Graceful degradation: In addition, due to the neural
network's noise rejection capability, performance is widely
insensitive to noise corrupting the input patterns. In the presence of
very noisy or contradictory inputs, neural network performance decays
gradually.
3 Heuristic mapping: Furthermore, when there exists a kind of
mapping function among the input-output pairs which is difficult to be
represented by some statistical forms, the neural network tends to
discover the mapping function in a very heuristic manner.
4 Fault tolerance: In addition, their parallel and distributed
processing characteristics (information is spread throughout the neural
network) make the neural networks widely insensitive to neurons (or
processing units) and/or connection weights deficiencies or
disconnections.
5 Multiple inputs: Finally, the neural networks can treat Boolean
and continuous entities simultaneously. Therefore, despite the type
(discrete or continuous) or source of input patterns, the neural
networks can receive multiple kind of input patterns and deal with them
effectively.
Because of all the properties mentioned above, the neural networks
seem highly suitable for handling the strategic planning problems that
are characterized by its unstructuredness and uncertainty.
STRATEGIC PLANNING TECHNIQUES
As is depicted in Figure 1, the process of strategic management
consists of four basic elements: (1) environmental scanning, (2)
strategy formulation, (3) strategy implementation, and (4) evaluation
and control (Wheelen and Hunger, 1992). A number of strategic planning
techniques have been proposed in previous researches (Abell, Hammond
1979, Glueck 1980, Larreche, Srinivasan 1982, Porter 1980, Rowe, Mason,
Dickel 1982). Among them, the knowledge-based strategic planning
approaches are well reviewed in Lee, Mockler and Dologite.
[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]
The available methods for strategic planning in the literature can
be classified into three categories depending on their focuses:
portfolio models, PIMS (Profit Impact of Market Strategy) analysis, and
growth vector analysis. Refer to Lee (1992) for details about these
three categories. Portfolio models assist managers in choosing the
products that will comprise the portfolio and allocating limited
resource to them in a rational way. The PIMS analysis is designed not
only to detect strategic factors influencing profitability but also to
predict the future trend of return on investment (ROI) in response to
the changes in strategy and in market conditions. Growth vector analysis
adopts the idea of product alternatives and market scope to support the
product development strategy; this results in three strategies that are
penetrating a market further with its present products, imitating
competitors or introducing product variants, and innovating entirely new
products.
We choose four strategic evaluation methods from portfolio models:
BCG matrix, Growth/Gain matrix, GE matrix, and Product/Market Evolution
Portfolio matrix. The reasons are that (1) portfolio models have been
widely acknowledged among researchers and practitioners and (2) four
strategic methods selected can provide most of the information that
might have been expected from the PIMS analysis and growth vector
analysis. The BCG matrix is the single most popular method. It
emphasizes the importance of a firm's relative market share,
industry's growth rate, and displays the position of each product
in a two-dimensional matrix. The products are called "Stars",
"Cash Cows", "Question Marks", or "Dogs"
by the position in the BCG matrix as shown in Figure 2.
[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]
Usually the highest profit margins are expected from the
"Stars", but they are also likely to require high net cash
outflows in order to maintain their market shares. Eventually, the
"Stars" will become "Cash Cows" as the growth slows
down and the need for investment diminishes as it enters the maturity
stage of the product life cycle. The "Question Marks" require
large net cash outflows to increase the market share. If successful,
these products will become new "Stars", which will in turn
become the "Cash Cows" of the future. If unsuccessful, these
products will become the "Dogs" to be excluded from the
product portfolio. The BCG matrix alone is, however, not sufficient to
make the investment decision because the model is too simple to cover
the whole aspects of decision. In many circumstances, those factors
other than relative market share and industry growth rate play a
significant role in the production strategy formulation. To compensate
the weakness of the BCG matrix, the Growth/Gain matrix, the GE matrix,
and the Product/Market Evolution Portfolio matrix are used additionally.
The Growth/Gain matrix indicates the degree of growth of each
product against the growth of market (See Figure 3). The product growth
rate is plotted on the horizontal axis and the market growth rate on the
vertical axis. Share gaining products appear below the diagonal line
while share-losing products appear above it. The products on the
diagonal line are interpreted as holding the current market share.
Alternatively, the graph displaying the trends of the products sales
compared with the market size may replace the role of Growth/Gain matrix
in a simpler way (Lee 1985).
[FIGURE 3 OMITTED]
The composite measures of the market attractiveness and the
business (product) strength are plotted in the GE matrix. In order to
construct the GE matrix, managers have to select the relevant factors
having significant relationship with the industry attractiveness and the
business (product) strength of the firm. Next they assess the relative
weights of those factors depending on manager's judgment, combining
the weights to depict composite measures on the GE matrix. Figure 4
shows 3 x 3 GE matrix chart depicting relative investment opportunity.
[FIGURE 4 OMITTED]
Strategic managers can decide the overall direction of the firm
through its corporate strategy by combining market attractiveness with
the company's business strength/competitive position into a
nine-cell matrix similar to the GE matrix. The resulting matrix,
depicted in Figure 5, is used as a model to suggest some of the
alternative corporate strategies that might fit the company's
situation. Cell 1, 2, 5, 7, and 8 suggest growth strategies are either
concentrated, which is expansion within the firm's current
industry, or diversified, where growth is generated outside of the
firm's current industry. Cells 4 and 5 represent stability
strategies--a firm's choice to retain its current mission and
objectives without any significant change in strategic direction. Cell
3, 6, and 9 display retrenchment strategies, which are the reduction in
scope and magnitude of the firm's efforts.
[FIGURE 5 OMITTED]
GE matrix does not depict as effectively as it might the positions
of new businesses that are just starting to grow in new industries. So,
in that cases, Hofer and Schendel [9] proposed to use a Product/Market
Evolution matrix in which businesses are plotted in terms of their
relative competitive position and their stage of product/market
evolution. They also recommended investment strategies at the business
level (See Figure 6).
The combined use of these four strategic models can provide most of
the functions necessary to effectively evaluate the corporate and/or
business strategies.
[FIGURE 6 OMITTED]
INFERENCE MECHANISM
The multi-phased aspects of strategic planning activities described
above indicate that one-shot or wholesome approach is not appropriate
for an effective strategic planning. Rather, to simulate a strategy
analyst's reasoning as closely as possible, it would be better to
divide the strategic planning-related decision-making processes into a
relevant small number of subprocesses. In this respect, a forward
inference mechanism suggests more robust strategies. Forward inference
process helps decision-makers perform a "what-if" analysis
that is essential for diagnosing the strategic problems and preparing
strategic policies against the uncertain future.
[FIGURE 7 OMITTED]
The forward inference process is composed of two stages. The first
stage uses a relative competitive position (RCP) neural network module,
which suggests the competitive positions in a target market. The second
stage uses both a generic business strategy (GBS) neural network module
and a contingency corporate strategy (CCS) neural network module. Each
module consists of one feed-forward neural network trained by the
backpropagation algorithm. Also, the stage of market evolution (SME) and
industry attractiveness (IA) are also used as additional information to
the CCS and GBS neural network module, as shown in Figure 8.
[FIGURE 8 OMITTED]
In the first stage, the RCP neural network module provides
information about the competitive position in the market relative to
that of a target competitor. We considered two kinds of strategic
planning models: BCG and Growth/Gain matrix. The architecture of the RCP
neural network module has 22 neurons in the input layer and 4 neurons in
the output layer (See List 1). For comparing relative competitive
position between non-leading firms at the specific market, we modified
the number of BCG matrix's cells from 4 to 8. The output value
derived from this neural network module is used as the input value of
RCP part of the CCS and GBS neural network modules. Following is a list
of RCP neural network module architecture.
List 1
RCP Neural Network Module
Input Neurons:
< Decision Making Company >
BCG : Stars/Cash Cows/ H-Question Marks/ M-Question Marks/
L-Question Marks/ H-Dogs/ M-Dogs/ L-Dogs
Growth/Gain: Share Gainer/ Share Holder/ Share Loser
< Competitor >
BCG : Stars/ Cash Cows/ H-Question Marks/ M-Question Marks/
L-Question Marks/ H-Dogs/ M-Dogs/ L-Dogs
Growth/Gain: Share Gainer/ Share Holder/ Share Loser
Output Neurons:
Strong/ Average/ Weak/ Drop-Out
In the second stage, a choice is made between the GE and the
Product/Market Evolution matrices according to the nature of the
company's business. The criterion recommended by Hofer and Schendel
(Hofer, Schendel 1978) is that if most of the businesses represent
aggregations of several product/market segments, the GE matrix is more
suitable; and if most businesses consist of individual or small groups
of related product/market segments, a Product/Market Evolution matrix
should be used. If the decision maker has difficulty making a decision
based on these considerations, he should use both types of matrices to
see which fits more appropriately to his own situation.
IA presents information about industry attractiveness. In this
paper, to determine the degree of industry attractiveness being
considered, decision-maker is prompted to select appropriate criteria,
and determine their weights and ratings in five scales. According to the
sum of weighted scores, one of 4 areas (High, Medium-High, Medium-Low,
Low) is presented. Combining the results from RCP module and IA module,
the CCS neural network module provides one of ten cells of GE matrix.
The architecture of CCS neural network module is summarized in List 2.
SME presents information about the stage of the market for a
product development stage, growth stage, shakeout stage, maturity stage,
and decline stage. To determine an appropriate market stage of a product
being considered in this paper, decision-maker is prompted to select one
of the five stages.
List 2
CCS (Contingency Corporate Strategy) Neural Network Module
Input Neurons:
RCP Part : Strong/ Average/ Weak/ Drop-Out
IA Part : High/ Medium-High/ Medium-Low/ Low
Output Neurons :
H-S Winners/ H-A Winners/ M-S Winners/ H-Average
Businesses/ L-Average Businesses/ Profit Producers/ Question
Marks/ M-W Losers/ L-A Losers/ L-W Losers
Combining the RCP neural network module with SME information, GBS
neural network module provides one of six types of generic business
strategies that follow: share increasing strategy, growth strategy,
profit strategy, market concentration/ asset reduction strategy,
liquidation strategy, and turnaround strategy. The architecture of GBS
neural network module is shown in List 3.
List 3
GBS Neural Network Module
Input Neurons :
RCP Part
Strong/ Average/ Weak/ Drop-Out
SME Part
Development/ Growth/ Shake-Out/ Maturity/ Decline
Output Neurons :
Share Increasing/ Growth/ Profit/ Market Concentration and
Asset Reduction/Turnaround/ Liquidation or Divestiture
After training the RCP, CCS and GBS neural network modules with
appropriate training data, three sets of neural network knowledge bases
are generated. They are RCP knowledge base, CCS knowledge base, and GBS
knowledge base.
Expert's knowledge is stored in a conventional knowledge base
that may include information about various topics, for example, industry
environments, socio-economic situations, contingency corporate
strategies, competitive position objective, and investment strategy with
respect to various strategic situations, etc. Especially, expert
knowledge related to three kinds of areas--contingency corporate
strategies, competitive position objective, and investment strategy--are
considered. Contingency corporate strategies include nine types of
strategies: "concentration via vertical integration",
"concentration via horizontal integration", "concentric
diversification", "conglomerate diversification",
"pause or proceed with caution", "no change in profit
strategy", "turnaround", "captive company or
divestment," and "bankruptcy or liquidation". Each of the
six generic types of business strategies involves a different pattern of
competitive position objectives, investment strategies, and competitive
advantages, which are summarized in Table 1.
ILLUSTRATION
Architecture of StratPlanner
We developed a prototype StratPlanner running on Windows 2000. It
is coded in Microsoft Visual C++ language. Its main menu is composed of
five sub-menus as shown in Figures 9 and 10.
[FIGURE 9 OMITTED]
[FIGURE 10 OMITTED]
As mentioned in introduction, we will illustrate the performance of
forward inference mechanisms: what-if analysis. For example, in
StratPlanner, what-if analysis is performed in accordance with the steps
shown in List 4.
Figure 11 illustrates showing the result from CCS neural network
knowledge base.
List 4
Steps of StratPlanner associated with What-If analysis.
Stage 1: RCP Stage
Step 1. Open the weight file of RCP neural network module.
Step 2. Select a target product.
Step 3. Input data about BCG and Growth/Gain matrix.
Step 4. Get the result from RCP neural network knowledge
base.
List 4
Steps of StratPlanner associated with What-If analysis.
Stage 2: GBS and/or CCS Stage
If GBS analysis is selected, then perform the following
steps.
Step 1. Open the weight file of GBS neural network
module.
Step 2. Input data about stage of market evolution.
Step 3. Get the result from GBS neural network
knowledge base.
If CCS analysis is selected, then perform the following
steps.
Step 1. Open the weight file of CCS neural network
module.
Step 2. Input data about industry attractiveness.
Step 3. Get the result from CCS neural network
knowledge base.
[FIGURE 11 OMITTED]
Data
Experiments were performed with Korean automobile data, which is
fabricated as a strategically turbulent market designed to show the
performance of StratPlanner in a turbulent strategic planning
environment. Table 2 shows the categories of automobile data used in our
experiments.
Monthly domestic sales data of three companies' passenger cars
from May 1990 to August 1994 as well as miscellaneous strategic planning
data from May 1990 to August 1994 was collected. The domain knowledge
from two experts, a strategy analyst in 'K' automobile company
and a strategy expert in university was also used in this experiment.
Table 3 shows the type and description of data used in our experiments.
The data set consisted of 52 cases divided into 32 cases from May
1990 to December 1992 for the training set and 20 cases from January
1993 to August 1994 for the test set. Another data set is arranged for
the differences in production periods. Based on this data, we trained
and tested RCP, CCS, GBS, CCS_RCP, GBS_RCP, RMS_GG neural network
modules. By using monthly data, this experiment is assumed to be a
monthly one-shot.
Experiment for Forward Inference
For illustration of forward inference, consider KIA as a
decision-making company. Suppose that KIA wants to build two kinds of
strategies for its small type car "PRIDE" using data of Jan.
of 1993: (1) competitive position strategy and (2) investment strategy.
Analysis of the current period's data represents that current
competitive positions of "PRIDE" compared to its major
competitor, HYUNDAI's "EXCEL", are "High-Dogs"
and "Share Loser", respectively. Similarly, the competitive
position of HYUNDAI's "EXCEL" is analyzed to belong to
"Cash Cows" in the BCG matrix and "Share Gainer" in
the Growth/Gain matrix, respectively. Using this information, the RCP
neural network knowledge base presents a "Weak" position. The
stage of small car market evolution is analyzed as "Maturity".
Based on the results from RCP neural network knowledge base and the
stage of market evolution, the GBS neural network knowledge base
provides "Market Concentration/Asset Reduction" strategy. The
sample screen of this result is shown in Figure 12. This process by RCP
and GBS neural network modules and other test cases are summarized in
Table 4.
This generic business strategy is inputted to the conventional
knowledge base, firing the following two rules.
IF Generic_Business_Strategy = Market_Concentration/Asset_Reduction
THEN Competitive_Position_Objective = "Reduce position to
smaller defensible position"
IF Competitive_Position_Objective = "Reduce position to
smaller defensible position"
THEN Investment_Strategy = "Moderate to negative
investment"
DISPLAY "Usually some new assets are required, while others
are sold off. The net level of investment depends upon the relative
proportion of these two activities in each specific case"
Figure 13 depicts the result of forward inference. In response to
the current market situations of KIA's PRIDE, StratPlanner provides
"Reduce position to smaller defensible position" strategy as a
competitive position objective and "Moderate to negative
investment" strategy as an investment strategy.
[FIGURE 12 OMITTED]
[FIGURE 13 OMITTED]
CONCLUDING REMARKS
In this paper, we proposed a neural expert system capable of
performing a forward inference so that strategic planning problems may
be solved more effectively. The proposed neural expert system is
designed to provide "what-if" inference function, based on
combining the generalization capability of neural networks with expert
system. A prototype system StratPlanner was proposed to prove our
approach. Its performance was illustrated with real competitive data of
Korea Automobile Industry. However, there exist much room for further
research. First, "goal-seeking" function can be added to a
future system development to make the system capable of performing a
bi-directional inference. Goal seeking functions are realized through
the backward inference mechanism, enabling the neural expert system to
show the appropriate inputs (or conditions) to guarantee the desired
level of outputs. Second, an improved version of StratPlanner can
incorporate refined mechanisms of environmental analysis, competitor
analysis, and advanced strategic planning models.
REFERENCES
Abell, D.F. & J.S. Hammond (1979). Strategic market planning:
problems and analytical approach. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
Ackley, D.H., Hinton, G.E. & T.J. Sejnowski (1985). A learning
algorithm for Boltzmann machines. Cognitive Science 9, 147-169.
Clark, Delwys N & Scott, John L (1999). Strategic level MS/OR
tool usage in the United Kingdom and New Zealand: A comparative survey.
Asia--Pacific Journal of Operational Research; Singapore, 16(1), 35-51.
Cohen, M.A. & S. Grossberg (Sept., 1983). Absolute stability of
global pattern formation and parallel memory storage by competitive
neural networks. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, SMC 13, 815-825.
Fukushima, K., Neocognitron (Sept., 1983). A self-organizing neural
network model for a mechanism of pattern recognition. IEEE Transactions
on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, PAMI 8, 398-404.
Gallant, S.I., (Feb. 1988). Connectionist expert system.
Communications of the Acm, 31(2), 152-169.
Glueck, W.F., (1980). Business policy and strategic management,
McGraw-Hill, Grossberg, S., (1976). Adaptive pattern classification and
universal recording: Part 1. Parallel development and coding of neural
feature detectors. Biological Cybernetics, 23, 121-134.
Grossberg, S., (1982). Studies of mind and brain, Reidel, Hingham,
Mass Hatchuel, Armand; Liberatore, Matthew J; Weil, Benoit; &
Stylianou, Antonis C (2000). An organizational change perspective on the
value of modeling. European Journal of Operational Research; Amsterdam,
125(1), 184-189.
Hofer, C.W. & D. Schendel, (1978). Strategy formulation:
analytical concepts, West Publishing Co.,
Hopfield, J.J., 1982. Neural networks and physical systems with
emergent collective computational abilities. Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences USA, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C.,
79, 2554-2558.
Honavar, Vasant & Uhr, Leonard (1994). Artificial Intelligence
and Neural Networks: Steps Toward Principled Integration. Boston:
Academic Press.
Honavar, Vasant & Uhr, Leonard (1984). Neurons with graded
response have collective computational properties like those of
two-state neurons. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA,
81, 3088-3092.
Honavar, Vasant & Uhr, Leonard (1984). & D.W. Tank, Neural
computation of decision in optimization problems. Biological
Cybernetics, 52, 1985, 141-152.
Jacobs, R.A., (1988). Increased rates of convergence through
learning rate adaptation. Neural Networks, 1, 285-307.
Kamijo, K. & T. Tanigawa, (1990). Stock price pattern
recognition: A recurrent neural network approach, Int'l Joint
Conference on Neural Networks, San Diego, Calif., 1, 215-221.
Kang, Boo Sik; Choe, Deok Hyoen & Park, Sang Chan (1999).
Intelligent process control in manufacturing industry with sequential
processes. International Journal of Production Economics; Amsterdam,
60-61, 583-590.
Kimoto, T. & K. Asakawa, (1990). Stock market prediction system
with modular neural networks. Int'l Joint Conference on Neural
Networks, San Diego, Calif., 1, 1-6.
Kohonen, T., (1987). State of the art in neural computing.
Int'l Joint Conference on Neural Networks, San Diego, Calif., 1,
79-90.
Larreche, J.C. & V. Srinivasan, (1982). STRATPORT: A Model for
the Evolution and Formulation of Business Portfolio Strategies.
Management Science 28(9), 979-1001.
Lederer, Albert L & Sethi, Vijay (1998). Seven guidelines for
strategic information systems planning. Information Strategy;
Pennsauken, 15(1), 23-28.
Lee, H.K., (1985). Interactions of Long-term Planning and
Short-term Planning: An Intelligent DSS by Post Model Analysis Approach,
Unpublished Master Thesis, Dept. of Management Science, Korea Advanced
Institute of Science and Technology.
Lee, K.C., (1992). Synergism of Knowledge-based Decision Support
Systems and Neural Networks to Design an Intelligent Strategic Planning
System. Journal of the MIS Research (in Korea), 35-56.
Li, Heng & Love, Peter E D (1999). Combining rule-based expert
systems and artificial neural networks for mark-up estimation.
Construction Management and Economics; London, 17(2), 169-176.
Li, Shuliang (2000). The development of a hybrid intelligent system for developing marketing strategy. Decision Support Systems; Amsterdam,
27(4).
Lippmann, R.P., (1992, April, 1987). An introduction to computing
with neural nets. IEEE ASSP Magazine, 3, 4-22.
McClelland, J.L. & D.E. Rumelhart, (1985). Distributed memory and the representation of general and specific information. Journal of
Expert Psychology: General, 114, 158-188.
McClelland, J.L. & D.E. Rumelhart, (1986), Parallel distributed
processing: explorations in the microstructures of cognition, Vol. 2,
MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.
Mingers, J (2000). The contribution of critical realism as an
underpinning philosophy for OR/MS and systems. The Journal of the
Operational Research Society; Oxford, 51(11), 1256-1270.
Mockler, R.J., & D.G. Dologite, (1991). Knowledge-based systems
to support strategic planning decision making. Proceedings of the
Twenty-Fourth Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,
3, 173-180.
Moriarty, Stephen (1998). Fixed assets management: Beyond the
spreadsheet. Management Accounting; London, 76(8), 42-44.
Porter, M.E., (1980). Competitive strategy: techniques for
analyzing industries and competition, MacMillan, NY.
Rabiner, L.R & B.H. Juang, (Jan., 1986). An introduction to
hidden Markov models. IEEE ASSP Magazine, 3, 4-16.
Ray, Tsaih; Hsu, Yenshan & Lai, Charles C (1998). Forecasting
S&P 500 stock index futures with a hybrid AI system. Decision
Support Systems; Amsterdam, 23(2), 161-174.
Rosenblatt, F., (1982). Principles of Neurodynamics: Perceptrons
and the Theory of Brain Mechanisms. Spartan, Washington, D.C [27] Rowe,
A.J., R.O. Mason & K. Dickel, Strategic management & business
policy: a methodological approach, Addison-Wesley, Reading,
Massachusetts.
Rumelhart, D.E., G.E. Hinton, & R.J. Williams, (1986). Learning
internal representations by error propagation. Parallel Distributed
Processing (PDP): Exploration in the Microstructure of Cognition Vol. I,
Cambridge, MA:MIT Press, ch.8, 318-362.
Rumelhart, D.E. & D. Zipser, (1985). Feature discovery by
competitive learning. Cognitive Science, 9, 75-112.
Steinbush, K., (1961). The learning matrix, Cybernetics, 36-45.
Thompson, A.Jr. & A.J. Strickland III, (1990). Strategic
management: concepts and cases, Irwin, 5th Edition.
Vandaele, Nico J; Lambrecht, Marc R; DeSchuyter, Nicolas; &
Cremmery, Rony (2000). Spicer Off-Highway Products Division--Brugge
improves its lead-time and scheduling performance. Interfaces:
Providence, 30(1), 83-95.
Waalewijn, P., & R.H. Boulan, (1990). Strategic planning on a
personal computer. Long Range Planning, 23(4), 97-103.
Walczak, Steven & Cerpa, Narciso (1999). Heuristic principles
for the design of artificial neural networks. Information and Software
Technology; Amsterdam, 41(2),107-117.
Waterman, D.A., (1986). A guide to expert systems, Addison-Wesley
Publishing Co.
Wheelen, T.L. & J.D., (1992). Hunger, Strategic management and
business policy, Addison-Wesley Publishing Co.
White, H., (1988). Economic prediction using neural networks: The
case of IBM daily stock returns. Int'l Joint Conference on Neural
Networks, San Diego, Calif., 2, 451-458.
Widrow, G. & M.E. Hoff, (1960). Adaptive switching circuits.
Institute of Radio Engineers, Western Electronic Show and Convention,
Convention Record Part 4, 96-104.
Willshaw, D.J., (1971). Models of distributed associative memory models, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Edinburgh, Scotland.
Zeidenberg, M., (1990). Neural network models in artificial
intelligence, Ellis Homewood, England.
Kun Chang Lee, Sung Kyun Kwan University
Jae Ho Han, Pukyong National University
C. Christopher Lee, Central Washington University
Table 1
Characteristics of the Six Generic Business Strategies
(Hofer & Schendel, 1978)
Type of Generic Competitive Position Investment Strategy
Strategy Objective
Share-increasing
strategies
Development stage Increase position Moderate investment
Shake-out stage Increase position High investment
Other stages Increase position Very high investment
Growth strategies Maintain position High investment
Profit strategies Maintain position Moderate investment
Market concentration Reduce (shift) Moderate to negative
and asset reduction position to smaller investment
strategies defendable level
(niche)
Liquidation or Decrease position to Negative investment
divestiture strategies zero
Turnaround strategies Improve positions Little to moderate
investment
Table 2
Categories of Korean Automobile Data
Company
Type Car KIA HYUNDAI DAEWOO
Small Pride Excel Lemans
Compact Capital Sephia Elantra Espero
Medium Concord Sonata Prince
Large Potentia Grandeur Super Salon
Table 3
Type and Description of Data Used in Experiments
Type of Data Description of Data
Quantitative Monthly Sale Data Market Growth Rate
Relative Market Share
Product Growth Rate
Qualitative Expert Knowledge Preparation of Input/Output Pairs
Data Supervised Learning
Preparation of Desired Output used
in Test
Knowledge related to three kinds
of areas:
Contingency corporate strategies
Competitive position objective
by type of generic strategy
Investment strategies by type of
competitive position objective
Data Produced by Relative Competitive Position
Neural Network Position in GE Matrix
Modules Position in Product/Market Portfolio
Matrix
Position in BCG Matrix
Position in G/G Matrix
Table 3
Type and Description of Data Used in Experiments
Type of Data Description of Data
User's Determination of stage of market by car type
Judgement Determination of industry attractiveness by car type
Variable Selection
Weight Determination
Table 4: Illustration of forward inferencing by RCP and GBS
neural network modules
Test Set Decision Making Company Competitor
(KIA's PRIDE) (HYUNDAI's EXCEL)
BCG G/G BCG G/G
93.01 High-Dogs Share Loser Cash Cows Share Gainer
02 High-Dogs Share Gainer Cash Cows Share Holder
03 High-Dogs Share Loser Cash Cows Share Gainer
04 High-Dogs Share Gainer Cash Cows Share Gainer
05 Cash Cows Share Gainer High-Dogs Share Loser
06 Cash Cows Share Loser High-Dogs Share Holder
07 Cash Cows Share Gainer High-Dogs Share Loser
08 High-Dogs Share Loser Cash Cows Share Gainer
09 High-Dogs Share Gainer Cash Cows Share Loser
10 High-Dogs Share Loser Cash Cows Share Holder
11 Middle-Dogs Share Loser Cash Cows Share Loser
12 Middle-Dogs Share Loser Cash Cows Share Loser
94.01 Middle-Dogs Share Loser Cash Cows Share Loser
02 High-Dogs Share Gainer High-Dogs Share Loser
03 Middle-QM Share Loser Stars Share Gainer
04 Stars Share Holder Low-Question Share Loser
Marks
05 Cash Cows Share Loser Low-Dogs Share Loser
06 Low-QM Share Loser Low-Question Share Loser
Marks
07 Cash Cows Share Gainer Low-Dogs Share Loser
08 Low-Dogs Share Loser Low-Dogs Share Loser
Test Set RCP SME GBS
Actual Desired
93.01 Weak Maturity Market Market
Concentration Concentration
02 Weak Maturity Market Market
Concentration Concentration
03 Weak Maturity Market Market
Concentration Concentration
04 Weak Maturity Market Market
Concentration Concentration
05 Strong Maturity Profit Profit
Strategies Strategies
06 Strong Maturity Profit Profit
Strategies Strategies
07 Strong Maturity Profit Profit
Strategies Strategies
08 Weak Maturity Market Market
Concentration Concentration
09 Weak Maturity Market Market
Concentration Concentration
10 Weak Maturity Market Market
Concentration Concentration
11 Weak Maturity Market Market
Concentration Concentration
12 Weak Maturity Market Market
Concentration Concentration
94.01 Weak Maturity Market Market
Concentration Concentration
02 Strong Maturity Profit Profit
Strategies Strategies
03 Weak Maturity Market Market
Concentration Concentration
04 Strong Maturity Profit Profit
Strategies Strategies
05 Strong Maturity Profit Profit
Strategies Strategies
06 rop-out Maturity Liquidation Profit
or Divestiture Strategies
Strategies
07 Strong Maturity Profit Profit
Strategies Strategies
08 Strong Maturity Profit Profit
Strategies Strategies