The demographics of the school-age population.

Hugo, Graeme J.

An appreciation of contemporary demography and impending shifts within it are needed for the efficient and equitable allocation of the limited resources available for education in Australia. The school-age population of Australia is increasing at substantially lower rates than the population as a whole. The paper examines recent trends in population growth in Australia from the perspective of their effects on the school-age population. Projected trends in population growth and age structure over the next two decades indicate that the school-age population at most will be stable and probably will decline. Shifts in levels of participation in the later years of secondary schooling are also examined. The paper then examines how the composition of the school-age population is changing and notes increasing levels of diversity and inequality. Finally some observations are made on policy influences on the future school-age population of Australia.

Introduction (1)

Shifts in the demand for schools are a function of changes in processes of population growth and spatial redistribution as well as in the rates at which children participate in education. Hence an appreciation of Australia's demography and impending changes in it is critical to equitable and efficient allocation of education resources and planning future provision. The first part of the paper examines recent trends in national population growth and the processes of fertility, mortality and migration which influence that growth. The impact of these processes on Australia's changing age structure is then examined. It is important to appreciate that past fluctuations in demographic processes have caused different age groups in the contemporary population to grow at different rates. Hence in 1998-99 the total population of Australia increased by 1.26 per cent whereas the school-age population (5-18 years) increased by only 0.81 per cent. Australia's population is changing not just with respect to its size but also in its composition and spatial distribution. These mean that not just the numbers of school children are changing, but their characteristics and where they live are also dynamic and create challenges for the education system. Finally shifts in the school-age population over the next two decades may be influenced by government policy.

This paper is written from a demographic perspective and aims to provide some demographic insights into the nation's future school-age population. Demography is the analysis, description and explanation of changes in the size, characteristics and spatial distribution of human populations. In educational planning, this analysis can be useful because it points to contemporary and impending changes in the numbers of potential students, their characteristics and where they live. This, of course, is one of several elements that need to be incorporated in planning the scale of educational resources needed, what type of resources are needed and where they are needed. Demographic analysis can also be applied not just in establishing the demand side of educational planning but, through examining the demography of the teaching workforce, it can assist in establishing future requirements for teacher numbers. The present paper attempts to overview the main demographic shifts which are occurring and which will impinge on the future school-age population.

Population trends in Australia

It is important at the outset to dispel the myth that Australia's population is static or declining. The population is currently growing at 1.2 per cent per annum (1999), only slightly below the average for the world as a whole (1.3 per cent) and above the levels of most comparable OECD countries. Australia's current level of population growth is certainly lower than occurred for much of the quarter century after World War II as Figure 1 shows, but it is continuing to grow significantly. Moreover it will continue to grow over the next few decades even in the extremely unlikely event that net gains from international migration will fall dramatically or approach zero.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

The components of Australian population growth over the post-war period are shown in Figure 2 and a clear pattern is in evidence. Natural increase (i.e. births minus deaths) has changed very little in Australia over the post-war period in absolute terms (though not as a rate). On the other hand, net migration has been much more volatile, fluctuating with shifts in the economic situation and in government policy. Over the last 12 years, annual increments of population have varied between 294 932 (1989) and 168 663 (1993).

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

Over the post-war period, Australia in common with all countries has experienced a substantial increase in life expectancy. (2) Australian males have increased their average span of life from 66.67 years to 75.22 (8.55 years) and women from 70.65 to 81.52 (10.87 years). This has been a massive improvement involving both therapeutic advances and lifestyle developments. From the perspective of the school-age population, almost all Australians now survive through to the post-school years. (3)

Fertility trends are much more important than those of mortality when considering the future shape of the school-age population. Even small fluctuations in fertility can influence markedly the numbers of children entering school five years later. Australian post-war fertility can be divided into three phases evident in Figure 3.

[FIGURE 3 OMITTED]

1 The post-war baby boom in which the total fertility rate (TFR) (4) rose from 2.75 in 1945 to a high of 3.55 in 1961.

2 A period of steep decline in fertility to below replacement level in 1976 and down to 1.895 in 1980.

3 A subsequent period of relative stability up to 1995 when the TFR fluctuated between 1.84 and 1.94.

Some (e.g. McDonald & Kippen, 1999) have suggested that we have entered a fourth phase of `resumed fertility decline' since there has been a pattern of continuous decline between 1992 and 1999 which has seen a fall in the TF1K from 1.89 to 1.74 (a decline of 7.9 per cent). This is seen as an approach towards the very low fertility currently being experienced in several European countries.

International migration levels influence the school-age population not only through the numbers of new arrivals in those ages but also through the subsequent fertility of migrant women. Australia's international migration system has become more complex over the last two decades (Hugo, 1999). In the past, permanent settlement has dominated our thinking about migration to Australia, but increasingly non-permanent (5) moves are becoming more significant. Figure 4 shows permanent and long-term in-and-out movement to Australia. There are currently high levels of `turnover' in international migration with more overseas arrivals to Australia being non-permanent and increasing levels of emigration of Australians on a long-term or permanent basis.

[FIGURE 4 OMITTED]

An important feature of international migration from the perspective of the school-age population is the fact that the migration is very selective by age. This is evident in Figure 5 which shows the age distribution of permanent and longterm arrivals in Australia in 1998-99. It is apparent that in both types of movement there is an over-representation of young adults but there are differences with respect to school-age children. Among permanent arrivals, there is an overrepresentation of school-age children but they are under-represented among the long-term arrivals.

[FIGURE 5 OMITTED]

Australia's changing age structure

Australia's age structure has undergone some substantial shifts over the last 40 years as Figure 6 indicates. The age structure of a country is a reflection of past trends in fertility, mortality and migration. Hence the high fertility of the post-war baby boom years (1946-61) is reflected in the large numbers aged 0-14 in the 1961 age pyramid whereas the subsequent decline in fertility is reflected in the stabilisation and even undercutting of the later age pyramids in these ages. Obviously the number of births in a year has a significant influence on the number entering primary school five years later, secondary school twelve years later, etc.

[FIGURE 6 OMITTED]

What has been the impact of this demographic ageing of Australia's population composition on the school-age population? Figure 7 shows that during the 1990s there was a slow but steady increase in the number of primary school-age children in Australia from 1 996 676 to 2 119 215 in 1999. Secondary age children declined from 1 602 581 in 1990 to 1 514 681 in 1994 and recovered to 1 599 788 in 1999. Hence there has been a relative stability in the numbers of Australian children of primary and secondary school age throughout the 1990s. However, in no year was the rate of increase in numbers greater than the percentage increase in the total population reflecting the overall ageing of the population. These trends are reflected in the numbers of children in schools in Australia shown in Table 1.

[FIGURE 7 OMITTED]

Future population growth in Australia

Australia's population will continue to grow over the next decade. The extent of growth will be determined by trends in fertility, mortality, and international migration. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) every three years or so releases a set of national population projections. The most recent set (ABS, 1998) is based on the results of the 1996 census and adopts a series of assumptions which are all based largely on the experience of Australia's population in the first half of the 1990s. The projections had a standard mortality assumption (6), two fertility assumptions and net overseas migration gains of 90 000, 70 000 and zero. Three scenarios were selected for particular attention. (7) Table 2 summarises the main results of the projections. They see Australia's population growing to between 19.27 million and 19.35 million in 2001, 20.81 million and 21.32 million in 2011, 22.09 million and 23.08 million in 2021 and 23.53 million and 26.38 million in 2051. Any scenario which indicates that Australia's population will not grow over the next 30 years or so would involve unrealistic or unacceptable changes in fertility, mortality and migration. It is really a matter of how much growth and this will depend on fertility trends and international migration (both permanent and non-permanent) and especially upon what policies are pursued by Australian governments over this period which impinge upon fertility and immigration.

What do these projections indicate for the school-age population? All of the projections suggest that Australia's population will continue to age with the median age increasing from the present level of 34.3 years to between 40.3 and 41.2 years in 2011, 42.8 and 44.5 years in 2021, and 47.2 and 51.2 years in 2051. Focusing specifically on the 5-12 and 13-18 primary and secondary school-age groups, Table 3 shows the projected figures for the three `most likely' projections. These suggest that Australia's primary and secondary school-age population is likely to remain relatively stable over the next two decades. The Series I projections are the most optimistic, assuming a net immigration gain of 90 000 per year and a stabilisation of the TFR at 1.75 in 2005. In fact, the TFR had already declined to 1.739 in 1998-99. On the other hand, the net gain from immigration in 1998-99 was 117 355 compared with 86 354 and 87 079 in the preceding two years. Hence present trends are quite close to the Series I projections although further falls in fertility would render these projections less likely. Table 3 indicates that in this scenario there will be a drop in the number of primary school enrolments of around 33 000 between 2001 and 2011 and an increase of around 26 000 in the next decade. The trends in the secondary school ages are offset, as one would expect, with a small increase up to 2011 (48 000) and a decrease (of 19 000) in the next decade. The Series II projections have similar fertility assumptions to Series I but lower net migration gain (70 000). They show a much larger decline in primary school-age persons of around 80 000 up to 2016 and a small decline thereafter whereas secondary school-age numbers increase by 38 000 up to 2005 and then decline by 50 000 over the next 15 years. Series III projections are the most pessimistic with a decline of TFR to 1.6 in 2005 and low immigration. These show a continuous decline in the primary school ages of 23 000 persons over the two decades. Secondary school-age people grow by 38 000 between 2001 and 2006 but thereafter decline by 150 000. Some comments about population policies which might impinge on these trends are made later.

Changing participation rates in education

Trends in fertility, mortality and migration determine the numbers in school-age groups, but the actual number attending schools is also influenced by the extent to which the people in those age groups participate. A useful measure of participation in the education system is the `Year 12 apparent retention rate' which is the percentage of full-time students of a given age cohort continuing from the first year of secondary schooling to Year 12. This rate increased from 22.7 per cent in 1967 to reach a peak of 76.6 per cent in 1993 before falling to 72.3 in 1999. Figure 8 shows that the rate increased substantially in the 1980s when it passed 50 per cent for females in 1985 and for males in 1987. However, in the 1990s, it stabilised and, in fact, declined for males from 72.5 per cent in 1992 to 65.9 per cent in 1996 and recovered to 66.4 per cent in 1999. For females, the rate also peaked in 1992 at 82 per cent and declined to 77 per cent in 1996 before recovering to 78.5 per cent in 1999. The higher retention rate among females has been a consistent pattern over the last two decades but the gap between females and males increased in the 1990s.

[FIGURE 8 OMITTED]

Changes in the retention rate are of critical significance in determining the post-compulsory school population. The numbers of young people reaching the non-compulsory school ages each year in Australia over the next two decades are likely to vary between around 269 000 to 280 000. However, if current participation rates are maintained, one-quarter of them will not complete Year 12. These substantial attrition rates will have a large effect on demand for schools and teachers.

Changes in the characteristics of students

Demography is concerned not only with examining the changing numbers of people but also their changing characteristics. Indeed some of the most rapid and significant changes in the Australian population in recent decades have been in its composition. The national population is becoming more diverse and heterogeneous in a number of ways, only a few of which can be mentioned here. Of particular significance to educators is the fact that Australia has been transformed from one of the most ethnically homogeneous of nations to one of the world's most ethnically diverse populations with 2 per cent of the population being of indigenous origin and 53 birthplace groups which have 10 000 or more residents in Australia. Some 23 per cent of Australians were born overseas and a further 19.2 per cent are Australia-born but have at least one parent born overseas. The indigenous population is growing faster than the remainder of the Australian population, although it is difficult to separate growth from natural increase from that by increased rates of self-identification among Aborigines and Torres Strait Islanders and improved enumeration techniques. The indigenous population increased by 55 per cent between 1986 and 1996 compared with 12 per cent among the non-indigenous population. It has been estimated that natural increase has accounted for a half of the growth between 1986 and 1996 (Gray, 1997a). Gray (1997b) has projected that natural increase alone will see the indigenous population increase to 400 800 in 2001, 447 516 in 2006 and 497 181 in 2011. This would see the indigenous population increase to 2.4 per cent of the total population. Projections of the other non-Anglo Celtic groups (e.g. Price, 1997) indicate that the outlook is for gradual increase in diversity of the Australian population in the next two decades but also that the Anglo Celtic population will remain the majority of the population.

Another area of changing population composition which has important implications for teachers is the massive shifts which have occurred in family composition and functioning in recent decades. The fall in fertility referred to earlier and the ageing of the population have seen a decrease in the proportion of Australian households with children aged less than 15 years. In 1976, 44.1 per cent of households had children; by 1991, this had fallen to 39.6 per cent and to 35.9 per cent in 1996.

Whereas in the 1950s and 1960s Australian teachers could assume that the bulk of the students in their classes came from a two-parent family in which one parent (usually the father) worked outside the home, this now applies to less than one-tenth of children. In 1997 some 18 per cent of children aged 0-14 lived in a single parent family. However, around one-third of Australian children can expect to spend some time in a single-parent family situation during the period they are aged less than 15 years. The number of single-parent families in Australia has increased rapidly, almost doubling over the 1976-96 period, whereas couple families with children increased by only 12.4 per cent.

The increased diversity of family situations in which Australian children live has not been restricted to the growth of single-parent families. A quarter of families with dependent children now include children who are not living with both of their birth parents; 4 per cent of families with dependent children are `blended families' including children who have different parents and 4 per cent of children live in couple families with a stepfather or stepmother. In 53.9 per cent of couple families with children both parents were working in 1996. It is disturbing, too, that in 14.2 per cent of such cases both parents were not working. In more than half of single parent families (57.2 per cent) the parent did not work and in a further 19.2 per cent the parent worked part-time.

Thus far in dealing with the characteristics of the population, we have adopted a theme of increased diversity. However we could equally adopt a theme of increasing inequality among the households from which Australian schoolchildren come. Australia has experienced a `hollowing out' of its middle classes. Harding (2000) points out:

 From 1982 to 1996-97, the average income of the most affluent 10 per cent
 of Australians increased by almost $200 a week. This was three to six times
 more than for those at the middle and bottom of the income distribution. So
 although on average everyone was better off, the gap between middle
 Australians and those at the top increased. (p. 13)

In addition, this social polarisation may have an important spatial dimension; that is, there is an increasingly important distinction between areas with `haves' and those with `have nots'. This spatial polarisation has been noted, especially in Australian cities (e.g. see Gregory, 1993; Gregory & Hunter, 1995a, 1995b) but also has been identified in non-metropolitan Australia (Hugo, 2000b). Harding (2000) found:

 Household incomes in the most affluent five postcodes in Victoria rose by
 almost 20 per cent from 1986 to 1996, while those in the five poorest
 Victorian postcodes fell by 10 per cent. An income chasm is growing between
 the inner metropolitan cities and those living in the outer metropolitan
 areas. The gap is also increasing between those living within and outside
 the cities, while South Australia and Tasmania lag far behind the other
 states. (p. 13)

Educational inequalities are not restricted to within Australia's metropolitan areas. A major issue in non-metropolitan Australia relates to differential access to educational opportunities compared with those enjoyed by children in metropolitan areas. This is of particular relevance when it comes to secondary education. Whereas 82.9 per cent of metropolitan 16-year-olds attend school, this is the case for only 75.8 per cent of those living in non-metropolitan areas.

Changing spatial distribution of students in Australia

In examining the demography of Australia's school-age population, it is important to consider not just the numbers involved but where they actually live because the distribution of the population is constantly changing. Australia has one of the most residentially mobile populations in the world. Between the 1991 and 1996 censuses, 42.9 per cent of the total population changed their place of residence. Nevertheless many of these movements are compensating movements so the extent to which there are actual shifts in overall population distribution have been limited. There certainly is some redistribution of population between the states for example. For the present century, Table 7 indicates:

* The proportion of the national population living in New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia has declined (from 81.8 per cent to 69.1 per cent).

* The proportion in Queensland, Western Australia, the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory has increased from 18.9 per cent to 29.9 per cent.

Again although there has been redistribution, it has only resulted in a small overall shift in the population distribution towards the north and west.

The proportion of Australians living in major cities (those with 100 000 or more inhabitants) decreased from 63.9 per cent in 1976 to 62.1 per cent in 1991 and increased slightly to 62.7 per cent in 1996. However, population distribution within the major cities is changing to some degree. Although it is an overgeneralisation, the main pattern of population change in the post-war years, at least until the 1980s, was the classical `doughnut' pattern, with population decline in inner and middle suburbs grading to moderate population growth in the middle suburbs and rapid growth on the urban fringe. Although elements of this are still evident, the 1996 census series of Social Atlases of population change in Australia's major cities show a different pattern. Areas of population growth are certainly found on the expanding urban fringe, but there is also growth in several inner suburbs and in a scattering of older inner and middle suburbs especially along main transport routes and coastal areas.

These trends will continue and, in the case of the latter, will become more evident in the next decade or so which will see vast areas of the middle suburbs developed in the 1950s and 1960s come onto the land and housing market. This will have considerable implications, not least the fact that the school-age population living in such areas will increase and place pressure on schools, perhaps in areas where schools have recently been closed or are being considered to be closed.

The last two years have seen some controversy about non-metropolitan Australia with the success of the One Nation party in the 1998 Queensland elections. Considerable attention has been focused upon the economic and social situation of people living in rural and regional Australia. Analyses of population change have shown that, whereas overall population growth outside Australia's capital cities has exceeded that in capital cities, there are some stark contrasts in population trends in non-metropolitan Australia (Hugo, 1994). Structural change in the large metropolitan areas has seen manufacturing being replaced with tertiary and quaternary industries, especially the knowledge-based, information and tourist industries as the main employers. However these structural changes, together with the revolution in transport and communication technologies, shifts in lifestyle preferences, and the growth in the numbers of people whose income is based on transfers of various kinds which are not tied to living in a specific location, have made it possible for some parts of the non-metropolitan sector to experience sustained population growth through inmigration. These areas are quite restricted in their distribution and are typified by one or more of a number of specific characteristics:

* proximity to large metropolitan areas;

* attractive, scenic environment (e.g. coastal, riverfront, mountainous areas);

* areas of tourist potential.

However other parts of the non-metropolitan zone, especially the wheat-sheep belt and pastoral zones, have continued to experience the rural depopulation, dominated by school leavers, which characterised the early post-war years. Hence population change in non-metropolitan Australia is likely to become more diverse and perhaps much less predictable in the next decade or so.

The main point to be made here is that there are substantial regional and local variations in the patterns of population change. In educational planning, it is important to be cognisant of these changes if mismatches between the allocation of scarce resources and the distribution of educational needs are to be avoided. It could be argued that the tempo of regional and local change is such that there is a need for considerable flexibility ill the allocation of educational resources between areas.

The teaching workforce

Thus far we have focused on the implications of demographic change in Australia for the school-age population. However, these changes have important implications for the teaching workforce as well as for students. The age-sex distribution of the Australian teaching workforce is depicted in Figure 9 and it is apparent that it differs markedly from the composition of the Australian workforce as a whole. Most striking is the domination of the teaching workforce by women who make up two-thirds of all teachers compared with 43.6 per cent of the total workforce. The teaching workforce is also considerably older than the workforce as a whole. Whereas 17.1 per cent of teachers are aged less than 30 years old, some 32.1 per cent of the total workforce are in these ages. Moreover there is an especially heavy concentration of teachers in the over 40 ages in 1996. Some 55.8 per cent of teachers are aged over 40 compared with 42.2 per cent of the total workforce. Clearly this presages the fact that there is to be a significant loss of Australian teachers through retirement over the next two decades when more than half of the current workforce are likely to retire. This has implications for teacher training. Moreover the overall ageing of the teaching workforce raises a number of issues, especially since it could be argued that the compositional changes in the student body considered earlier will increase the challenges faced by teachers.

[FIGURE 9 OMITTED]

The critical question which this raises is the extent to which the current teaching workforce will be able to meet the anticipated changes in demand for schooling created by growth of the school-age population. This is an area calling for detailed analysis, incorporating not just numbers, but types of skills needed among teachers. Nevertheless the outlook for the next two decades is for relative stability in the numbers of primary and secondary school children. Over half of current teachers will be likely to retire in that period. The demand for teachers which is already being felt in parts of Australia and in some subject areas will increase. Clearly there is a need to rethink the winding back of teacher education which has occurred in the 1990s. Careful demographic analysis should be a part of this urgently needed reassessment.

Population policy

Australia's future demographic patterns will be shaped by a myriad of factors which cannot all be anticipated. One of the important elements in this will be government policy, although it is little considered in Australia where population is generally considered as a static backdrop against which economic forces are played out and which governments and others have little or no opportunity to influence. However, Australia's future demographic trends will be influenced by policy. Attention in this area is almost exclusively focused on policy in relation to international migration and future levels of net migration gain will be influential in determining future levels of population growth. There have been a wide range of views voiced about Australia's level of international migration. These range from the zero net migration views espoused by the One Nation Party to Malcolm Fraser (The Australian, 20 December 1995, p. 13) arguing for much higher levels than have been achieved previously `to become a nation of 50 or 60 million'. McDonald and Kippen (1999) have shown how extremely low or very high levels of immigration sustained over a considerable period of time provide undesirable outcomes in terms of the age structure of the population and the balance between working and non-working age groups. They point out that a level of net annual migration of around 80 000 with a fall in the TFR down to 1.65 in the next decade would lead to an achievement of zero population growth in about 25 years and a stabilisation of the Australian population at around 24-25 million.

It is unrealistic to argue in terms of a zero net migration level for Australia. This is partly because of the deleterious imbalances it would create in the national age structure, but it also does not take account of the reality that some elements in Australia's intake are not really amenable to total control by the government. Equally, however, the claims for intakes well above 150 000 persons per annum also appear quite unrealistic against the historical record of absorption of immigrant arrivals into the Australian economy and society. McDonald and Kippen argue that a desirable range of net international net migration gains over the next four decades is likely to be in the band of 80 000 to 120 000 and this would appear to be the most likely scenario on which to plan for the next two decades.

In Australia, government influence on future population outcomes is seen to be synonymous with immigration policy. However there is a growing body of opinion that fertility levels are also amenable to policy influences. Moreover, in this context, it has been shown (McDonald & Kippen, 1999) that realistic increases in immigration levels over the next two decades will have less effect on overall population growth than shifts in the level of fertility. Certainly this is true of the impacts on numbers of school-age children. On the one hand, if Australian levels of fertility fall to those of some contemporary European nations, it will hasten the onset of a situation where numbers of school-age children begin to decline significantly while relatively small increases in fertility or even stabilisation of it will delay these processes. The concentration on immigration and neglect of fertility in the contemporary public population debate is partly a function of a lack of understanding of the role of natural increase, but also a widespread feeling that fertility levels are not able to be influenced by policy in a liberal democracy whereas immigration can. This has not been the case in Europe where there has been widespread concern about low fertility and where the role of government policy in stabilising or even increasing fertility is widely discussed (Hugo, 2000a). In these contexts, crude pro-natalist measures have been replaced by interventions which seek to change the environment in which decisions by couples about the number of children they intend to have are made. These are sometimes referred to as `family friendly' policies.

In European countries with so-called family friendly policies, there are definite indications that fertility decline has not been as great as it has in countries where there are low levels of gender equity in the labour market and other institutions and where there are limited supports for those women who chose to have children as well as have substantial work careers. There would seem to be a strong case that, where governments and industry pursue policies and practices which make having children and working outside the home a real option for women through wide availability of child care, significant maternity and parenting leave arrangements, preservation of seniority and promotion prospects during such leave, etc., fertility levels are likely to stabilise at TFRs between 1.5 and 2. They certainly contribute to the strengthening of the two-child family size norm in those societies.

However, one would not wish to argue for the implementation of family friendly policies in Australia purely on the basis of their fertility effects, although such effects are undoubtedly tangible and positive. One would rather stress that policies and activities that are supportive of women combining work and family should be instigated from the perspectives of improving equity and productivity in Australia. There is a clear gender inequity here which in any society professing to subscribe to equality of opportunity needs to be resolved.

Conclusion

It is not the purpose of this paper to draw out in detail all of the implications arising from the trends analysed here for educational planning in Australia, since the author's expertise is in demography rather than in education. There are, however, a number of directions which could be briefly noted. The increasing diversity of the school-age population will increase the challenges faced by teachers and by schools. The shifts in the spatial distribution of that population will mean that the allocation of resources between areas and regions needs to be changed and flexibility needs to be built in so that such that shifts in allocations can be facilitated. We are on the brink of a large section of the teaching workforce reaching retirement age and teacher education planning needs to take this into account. The future numbers of school-age Australians, however, cannot be predicted with a great deal of certainty. Much will depend on how government policy impinges upon fertility.

Future trends in the school-age population of Australia are to some extent shaped by past trends in demography. A continuation of present trends in fertility and migration will inevitably see a decline in primary school-age children in the next decade and a small increase in the numbers of secondary age children. However it must be borne in mind that these trends are not totally inevitable. Future levels of immigration will influence the numbers of school-age children and immigration levels and composition remain an area of lively debate in Australia. The outcomes of that debate will affect the numbers of schools and teachers required over the next 20 years. However it is not commonly realised that shifts in Australian fertility levels over this period will have a much greater effect on the numbers of school-age children. If Australian fertility continues to fall and reaches European levels, there will be even fewer children entering primary school than is projected here. There is an increasing feeling in Australia that there is a need for a population policy which has a vision for what the Australian population should be like in the next few decades. Part of this vision must include a consideration of fertility. Several have argued that the current declining levels of fertility are in part a function of Australia not adopting family-friendly policies--that it is the result of women not being given a real choice to have a family and career as well, but having to choose between the two. The extent to which Australia adopts a conservative male bread-winner model of the family in policy development in the private and public sectors and the extent to which it moves towards policies which enable women to have both a career and a family like their male counterparts will be important determinants of how many children will be in Australian schools over the next couple of decades.

Keywords

change

demography

enrolment projections

futures (of society)

population trends

school demography

Table 1 Australia: Number of school students, 1989-1999

 School students Percentage in government
Year '000 Percentage change schools

1989 3031 -- 72.4
1990 3042 +0.36 72.1
1991 3075 +1.08 72.1
1992 3099 +0.78 72.1
1993 3098 -0.03 71.9
1994 3099 +0.03 71.5
1995 3109 +0.32 71.0
1996 3143 +1.09 70.7
1997 3172 +0.92 70.3
1998 3199 +0.85 70.0
1999 3227 +0.88 69.7

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (2000c), p.82.
Table 2 Australia: Projected population growth 1998-2051

 Population '000
Projection
series 1998 2001 2011 2021 2051

I 18734.7 19361.4 21315.9 23078.9 26383.8
II 18732.6 19297.1 21017.3 22519.0 24944.7
III 18729.5 19271.6 20806.0 22089.4 23530.4

 Growth Median
Projection rate age
series 1998-2051 2051

I +0.65 43.7
II +0.54 44.1
III +0.43 46.2

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, (1998).
Table 3 Australia: Projected change in school-age population, 2001-2021

 Series I Series II

 Annual Annual
Year N % change N % change

Population aged 5-12
2001 2 136 135 -- 2 128 881 --
2006 2 117 019 -0.18 2 095 705 -1.55
2011 2 103 536 -0.13 2 064 062 -1.51
2016 2 104,921 +0.01 2 047 685 -0.16
2021 2 129,568 +0.23 2 058 140 +0.51

Population aged 13-18
2001 1 610 052 -- 1 605 678 --
2006 1 655 739 +0.56 1 643 282 +0.46
2011 1 658 720 +0.04 1 636 896 -0.08
2016 1 642 812 -0.19 1 608 330 -0.35
2021 1 639 922 -0.04 1 591 318 -0.21

 Series III

 Annual
Year N % change

Population aged 5-12
2001 2 117 019 --
2006 2 070 266 -2.21
2011 1 962 248 -1.07
2016 1 887 426 -0.77
2021 1 887 055 -0.004

Population aged 13-18
2001 1 605 678 --
2006 1 643 282 +0.46
2011 1 633 725 -0.12
2016 1 557 481 -0.95
2021 1 481 095 -1.00

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (1998).
Table 4 Australia: Birthplace of the population, 1947-1996

 1947 1971

 N % N %

Australia-born 6 835 171 90.2 10 176 320 79.8
MES-born (1) 601,036 7.9 1 224 204 9.6
NES-born (2) 143 151 1.9 1 355 114 10.6
Total 7 579 358 100.0 12 755 638 100.0

 1996 Percentage
 change
 N % 1947-96

Australia-born 13 227 776 77.2 + 93.5
MES-born (1) 1 545 834 9.0 + 157.2
NES-born (2) 2 362 379 13.8 +1550.3
Total 17 135 989 100.0 + 126.1

(1) MES = Those born in mainly English-speaking countries

(2) NES = Those born in non-English-speaking countries.

Source: Australian Census, 1947, 1971, 1996.
Table 5 Ethnic strength in Australia 1947, 1987, 1998 and projected in
2030 with 80 000 net migration per annum

Ethnic origin 1947 1987 1998 2030

AngloCelts 89.8 74.6 74.5 66.3
West European 5.6 7.4 7.4 7.5
East European 0.4 3.9 3.9 4.4
South European 1.5 7.1 7.4 6.1
West Asian (Middle East) 1.5 2.1 1.4 2.6
Jewish n.a. n.a. 0.7 n.a.
South Asian 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.9
Southeast Asian -- 1.2 1.2 4.0
East Asian 0.2 1.4 1.5 4.5
African -- 0.1 n.a. 0.4
Latin American 1.0 0.3 n.a. 1.0
Pacific Islander 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6
Aboriginal/Torres Strait Islander 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Price (1997, p. 62); unpublished estimates of Charles Price.
Table 6 Australia: Earnings distribution rates for full-time adult
employees, 1985-98

 10th percentile/ 90th percentile/
 50th percentile ratio 50th percentile ratio

Males 1985 0.70 1.62
 1998 0.62 1.75
 Difference -11.4% 8.0%
Females 1985 0.78 1.50
 1998 0.70 1.55
 Difference -10.3% 3.3%
Total 1985 0.72 1.63
 1998 0.65 1.72
 Difference -9.7% 5.5%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (2000b, p. 145).
Table 7 Australia: Distribution of population between states and
territories, 1881-1998

 1881 1901 1921 1947

New South Wales 33.3 35.9 38.6 39.4
Victoria 38.3 31.8 28.2 27.1
Queensland 9.5 13.2 13.9 14.6
South Australia 12.3 9.5 9.1 8.5
Western Australia 1.3 4.9 6.1 6.67
Tasmania 5.1 4.6 3.9 3.4
Northern Territory 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Australian Capital Territory 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
 Total percentage 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
 Total number (million) 2.2 3.8 5.4 7.6

 1961 1976 1998

New South Wales 37.3 35.3 33.8
Victoria 27.9 26.9 24.9
Queensland 14.4 15.2 18.5
South Australia 9.2 9.1 7.9
Western Australia 7.0 8.4 9.8
Tasmania 3.3 2.9 2.5
Northern Territory 0.2 0.7 1.0
Australian Capital Territory 0.6 1.5 1.6
 Total percentage 100.0 100.0 100.0
 Total number (million) 10.5 13.9 18.9

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (1999); Rowland (1982, p. 25).

Notes

(1) This is a shortened version of a paper presented to the National Council of Independent Schools Associations, Barossa Valley, South Australia, July 2000.

(2) Life expectancy is defined as `the average number of years a person of a given age can expect to live if the present mortality rates at all ages for a given period is maintained over their lifetime' (Hugo, 1986, p. 19).

(3) The 1996-98 mortality situation in Australia indicated that 99.1 per cent of females and 98.7 per cent of Australian males live beyond age 20.

(4) The total fertility rate (TFR) `indicates the number of children that will be born alive to a woman during her lifetime if she were to pass through all her child-bearing years conforming to the age specific rates of a given year' (Hugo, 1986, p. 43). More simply it indicates approximately the completed total number of children women are having on average at a particular time.

(5) That is, persons staying longer than a year in Australia but not settling permanently.

(6) This assumed that the decline which occurred between 1987-91 to 1992-96 continued to 2005-6. Thereafter the average rates of decline experienced in successive five year periods from 1967-71 to 1992-96 were used. These would see life expectancy increasing 5-7 years by 2051.

(7) Series I--A total fertility rate declining from 1.795 in 1997 to 1.75 in 2005 and thereafter remaining constant

--Net overseas migration of 90 000 per year Series II--TFR as above

--Net overseas migration of 70 000 per year Series III--A TFR declining to 1.6 in 2005 and thereafter remaining constant

--Net overseas migration as for Series II.

References

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Australian Bureau of Statistics. (1999). Australian demographic statistics, December quarter 1998 (Cat. no. 3101.0). Canberra: Author.

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2000a). Australian demographic statistics, December quarter 1999 (Cat. no. 3101.0). Canberra: Author.

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Hugo, G.J. (1986). Australia's changing population: Trends and implications. Melbourne: Oxford University Press.

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Graeme Hugo is a Professor in the Department of Geographical & Environmental Studies at the University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005. Email: [email protected]