Is auditor switching associated with delayed accounting recognition of bad news?
Grayson, Michael M. ; Luehlfing, Michael S.
ABSTRACT
We study the association between auditor switching and the delayed
accounting recognition of bad news about net income. Using a
nonparametric sign test and a test of proportions, we analyze 305
auditor switches which occurred during the event period 1976 to 1994, a
period which predated a significant increase in the number of
financial-statement restatements (General Accounting Office 2002). The
results (null hypothesis rejected at z > 5 for each test) suggest
that some association exists between the fact of auditor switching
(whether reported as resignation or dismissal) and the occurrence of
decreases in net income from the year preceding the auditor switch (t-1)
to the year following the auditor switch (t+1).
INTRODUCTION
Time-series research shows that accounting net income is normally
expected to rise from year to year, not fall. We assert that when
management expects accounting net income to fall, management may switch
auditors in an attempt to delay accounting recognition of bad news. In
this regard, we study the association between auditor switching and the
delayed accounting recognition of bad news about net income.
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. We begin by
providing a brief background overview. Thereafter, we develop the
research hypothesis. After explaining the methods used (including sample
selection and statistical tests), we discuss the results, contributions
and limitations. Finally, we provide several comments regarding future
research.
BACKGROUND
As indicated in the Appendix, there are numerous possible reasons
for auditor switching. However, as already stated, we focus on
management's desire to delay the recognition of bad news about net
income as a reason for auditor switching.
Knapp and Elikai's (1990) information suppression hypothesis
assumes that management needs to suppress information permanently. In
contrast, Kluger and Shields (1991, 255), suggest that auditor switches
may be associated with attempts to "delay the release of
unfavourable information." (emphasis added) Thus, management may be
satisfied by suppressing information temporarily rather than
permanently. Indeed, if management wants to delay accounting recognition
of bad news, and succeeds in doing so, then the bad news would be
recognized subsequent to the year of the auditor switch.
While managements have incentives to voluntarily disclose bad news
(Skinner 1994 and 1997), they also have incentives not to disclose bad
news; or, at least, to delay the disclosure. For example, by switching
auditors, management may delay recognition of the bad news until such
time that management is able to downwardly adjust market expectations so
that investors will already be expecting bad news by the time the bad
news becomes public. Management gains at least the delay involved in the
switch, which is entirely contained within the annual reporting cycle
(that is, year t, the year in which the auditor switch occurs). However,
if recognition of the bad news can be delayed until the year following
the auditor switch, management also has time to reset annual
compensation and bonus targets so that managers still receive high
compensation and bonuses even for meeting targets which were set lower
than they otherwise would have been set. Healy (1985) demonstrated that
managers change decisions as a result of compensation arrangements,
including moving recognition in financial statements (both accelerating
and delaying recognition) from one fiscal year to another. Knapp (1991,
41, Table 1) reported that managers do control the selection of
auditors, either by selecting them outright or by giving the board of
directors a list from which the board is permitted to select.
RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS
Ball and Watts (1972, 680) concluded that accounting net
"income can be characterized on average as a submartingale or some
similar process." That is, the net income for each year is expected
to be greater than or equal to the preceding year's net income.
Mathematically, [Y.sub.t] [greater than or equal to] [Y.sub.t-1]. Taking
the mathematical expression literally, this is an extreme expectation
because it never permits net income to be lower than in any preceding
year.
Another extreme expectation is that accounting net income always
moves randomly; that is, accounting net income moves down from one year
to the next as often as it moves up. This--expectation of random
movement of accounting net income is the opposite of the Ball and Watts
(1972, 680) expectation. However, we know from the time-series
literature in accounting that accounting net income does not move
randomly (e.g., Brown and Rozeff 1979, Foster 1977, Griffin 1977, Watts
1975, and Bathke and Lorek 1984). Nevertheless, the existence of the
time-series literature demonstrates that the true pattern of movement of
accounting net incomes is somewhere along the continuum from completely
random to the Ball and Watts (1972) expectation.
If lower net incomes do indeed occur systematically with respect to
auditor switches, this suggests some association, causal or otherwise,
exists between the two. If management is promptly reporting all bad
news, then management has no incentive to switch auditors in order to
delay any reporting of any bad news. On the other hand, if management is
desirous of delaying the reporting of bad news, and management suspects
that the auditors will both find the bad news and insist that its
effects be recognized in the current year's financial statements,
then management may decide that the delayed reporting of bad news is
more important to them than the continued good relationship with their
incumbent auditor. In such a case, management can then choose a course
of action whereby it (1) attempts (whether successfully or
unsuccessfully) to find new auditors who will not require that the bad
news be recognized in the current year's financial statements, (2)
issues guidance to lower investors' expectations for the following
year, and (3) gives accounting recognition to the bad news in that
following year (or later, or never). This conceptual sequence gives rise
to the following null hypothesis:
H0: Among client companies that switched auditors, the net
income in the year after the auditor switch (t+1) was greater than
or equal to the net income in the year before the switch (t-1).
In substance, this hypothesis tests for an association between
auditor switching and the delayed revelation of bad news. This
hypothesis is based on the assumption that decreases in net income
either are bad news themselves or else proxy for bad news.
METHODS
Sample Selection
The sample was selected from the Compustat data base (that is, a
limited subscription to Compustat composed of 4,106 companies reported
to have been randomly selected by Compustat from the full Compustat data
base) for the years 1975 through 1994. Use of this period avoids the
increased number of financial-statement restatements found by the
General Accounting Office (2002) to have occurred in subsequent years,
that is, 1997 to 2002, and therefore avoids a potential problem whereby
some additional companies ought to have restated, but did not do so. See
Tables 1 and 2 for companies included in the data base, but excluded
from the sample. See Table 3 for information on the final sample.
To be selected, companies must have had different auditor codes
reported by Compustat from one year to the next, plus have had two
following years of data. If a company was taken over (Anderson, Stokes and Zimmer 1993) or merged (Hribar and Collins 2002), then it did not
have two following years of data and was not included in this study. The
purpose of using multiple years in which auditor switches occurred was
to guard against any systematic effects in the economic environment
causing auditor changes and/or declines in net incomes in particular
calendar years. Auditor codes were not available from Compustat for
banks, life insurance, or property and casualty companies (Compustat
1994, 5-26), so those companies were excluded from selection.
Unlike DeFond (1992, 23), this study included companies with
multiple switches. Suppose a company were to switch auditors solely to
obtain lower audit fees. Since the company would then be paying less to
its outside vendor of audit services, its net income would be higher
than otherwise. Because we hypothesize that auditor switching is
associated with lower net incomes rather than higher net incomes,
including multiple auditor switches tends to bias against finding lower
net incomes. Thus, inclusion of companies with multiple switches biases
against finding the hypothesized effect. Therefore, if significant
results are found, they may understate what other researchers, who would
have made different research design choices, would have found.
Kluger and Shields (1991, 263) tested two bankruptcy prediction
models based on companies which either switched or did not switch
auditors two to three years before bankruptcy, and found that the
switched companies were more likely to go bankrupt. By selecting
companies which survived two fiscal years beyond switching auditors,
even though the tests were conducted only on one fiscal year beyond
switching auditors, any possible effects attributable to attempts to
stave off bankruptcy, or to suppress information concerning severe
financial distress culminating in bankruptcy, were lessened.
Statistical Tests
We tested the null hypothesis using the Fisher distribution-free
sign test (Hollander and Wolfe 1973, 39-40). This test analyzes the
direction of movement, if any, and results in a pattern of ones (for
movement in the hypothesized direction) and zeroes. Once the direction
of movement is determined, the ones and zeroes are distributed according
to a binomial distribution (Hollander and Wolfe 1973, 40). When the
sample is large, Hollander and Wolfe (1973, 40) show that the test
statistic [B.sup.*] is approximately normally distributed. The sample of
305 auditor switches is considered a large sample, and therefore the
standard deviation and the z score were computed according to Devore and
Peck (1986, 223).
To perform a test of significance on the direction of changes in
net income, it is necessary to have an expectation for the number of
times net income should move in the specified direction. The observed
number of changes in net income is then compared as a proportion or
number or percentage of the sample against an expected proportion or
number or percentage. We performed two tests, using two expectations.
The expectation for net income according to Ball and Watts (1972,
680) is that accounting net "income can be characterized on average
as a submartingale or some similar process." That is, the net
income for each year is expected to be greater than or equal to the
preceding year's net income. However, the Ball and Watts
expectation can be characterized as an expectation which is extreme,
because it allows zero lower net incomes.
Another extreme expectation is that accounting net income always
moves randomly; that is, accounting net income moves down from one year
to the next as often as it moves up. This expectation of random movement
of accounting net income is the opposite of the Ball and Watts (1972,
680) expectation. However, we know from the time-series literature in
accounting that accounting net income does not move randomly (e.g.,
Brown and Rozeff 1979, Foster 1977, Griffin 1977, Watts 1975, and Bathke
and Lorek 1984). Nevertheless, the existence of the time-series
literature demonstrates that the true pattern of movement of accounting
net incomes is somewhere along the continuum from completely random to
the Ball and Watts (1972) expectation.
If accounting net incomes were to move randomly, then the movement
from year (t-1) to year (t) is either up or down, and, similarly, the
movement from year (t) to year (t+1) is either up or down. Thus, the
movement from year (t-1) to year (t+1) is either up up, up down, down
up, or down down. Making a simplifying assumption of equal-sized
movements in net income, then only in the "down down" pattern
of net income will net income be lower in (t+1) than in (t-1). Thus, an
expectation of random movement of accounting net incomes means that
twenty-five percent of the time, net incomes should be lower in (t+1)
than in (t-1), which allows for a different test of the same null
hypothesis. This expectation that net income is lower twenty-five
percent of the time in (t+1) than (t-1) actually overstates the
percentage because the movement of accounting net incomes is upward
rather than random; from the time-series literature findings of patterns
rather than randomness, the true but unknown percentage has to be lower
than twenty-five percent.
Use of a matched-pairs test is not appropriate because the relevant
population characteristic (direction of changes in net income) is known
from the Ball and Watts (1972) study and from the time-series literature
(e.g., Brown and Rozeff 1979, Foster 1977, Griffin 1977, Watts 1975, and
Bathke and Lorek 1984). Unlike Garsombke and Armitage (1993), we tested
the direction of changes in net income, not the quantity of net income,
for two reasons. First, we needed to be consistent with our hypothesis,
which deals with direction--not magnitude--of change in net income.
Second, even a small percentage change in net income by a very large
company may, by itself, be larger than the combined changes in net
incomes of many small companies.
RESULTS
H0: Among client companies that switched auditors, the net
income in the year after the auditor switch (t+1) was greater than
or equal to the net income in the year before the switch (t-1).
There were 121 observed lower net incomes (out of 305 switches).
When the proportion of 121/305 was compared against the Ball and Watts
(1972, 680) income expectation, the null hypothesis was rejected at a z
value of 13.9. When the proportion of 121/305 was compared against an
expectation of random movement of accounting net incomes, the null
hypothesis was rejected at a z value of 5.1.
Given the results of both these tests, the null hypothesis was
strongly rejected at a z value somewhere between 5.1 and 13.9. The z
value of 5.1 is based on an extreme expectation that net income is lower
in (t+1) than in (t-1) twenty-five percent of the time, which overstates
the actual percentage. The z value of 13.9 is based on an expectation,
which is extreme in the opposite direction, that net income is never
lower in (t+1) than in (t-1), which understates the actual percentage.
Therefore, any reasonable income expectation which falls between these
two extremes would also result in the null hypothesis being rejected at
some z value which falls between 5.1 and 13.9.
The =NORMSDIST(Z) function in an Excel spreadsheet was used to
compute the cumulative area under the curve for these z values. At a z
value of 5.1, the cumulative area is 0.9999998+, for a p value of
<0.0000002. At a z value of 13.9, the cumulative area, correct to
twenty-five decimal places, is 1, for a p value of
<.0000000000000000000000001. This means that, much more frequently
than expected, and with little probability of having reached an
incorrect conclusion, net income is lower the year following an auditor
switch (t+1) than the year preceding an auditor switch (t-1).
CONTRIBUTIONS AND LIMITATIONS
We discussed a possible sequence of events regarding possible
attempts by management to delay accounting recognition of bad news, and
from that formulated a testable hypothesis. We then documented a strong
statistical association between the fact of auditor switching (whether
reported as resignation or dismissal) and the occurrence of lower net
incomes in the year following the auditor switch (t+1) than in the year
preceding the auditor switch (t-1).
While we found strong evidence of an association, we cannot state
with certainty what causes this association since we have not conducted
a critical experiment--that is, an experiment which not only supports
one causative factor, but also rules out all other possible causative
factors. We also did not test whether managers' compensation
targets are actually adjusted when companies' incomes decrease.
Nevertheless, the large z score suggests that further research is
warranted.
This study did not distinguish between auditor dismissals and
auditor resignations because this study tested for an association
between auditor switching (regardless of who initiated the switch) and
bad news which may have become public after the switch. While some
studies may have used sources such as 8-K filings to determine whether
auditor switches were reported as dismissals or resignations (Nichols
and Smith 1983, and Wells and Louder 1997), we ignore the
characterization of the switch and concentrate instead on the fact of
the switch. Krishnan and Stephens (1995, 180) referred to McConnell in
acknowledging that it may be difficult to determine the true reason for
an auditor switch, no matter what people or documents say. As seen
below, McConnell (1984, 46) recognized that what is stated in 8-K
filings or other sources may be false information.
Not acknowledging known unreported disagreements in his exhibit
letter reviewing client disagreement assertions allows an auditor
to avoid potential litigation, as well as the stigma of being "a
poor loser."
Wells and Loudder (1997, 140) stated, "empirical evidence
suggests that resignations are associated with unfavorable events within
a firm." There was no reason to infer that the bad news being
examined herein would differ across auditor dismissals and auditor
resignations, particularly when both dismissals and resignations could
each be disguised as the other. Auditors who do not wish to continue as
auditors may raise their fees to such an extent that clients decide to
switch. Clients who do not wish to continue their relationship with
their incumbent audit firm can decide to have disagreements with the
auditors or otherwise to make life difficult for the auditors.
The use of the Compustat data base caused a bias against finding
the hypothesized effect. This bias occurred because the Compustat data
base companies tend to be larger than the average of all publicly-owned
companies. Those larger companies are more closely followed by market
participants who may have, or seek, private information which may bear
on price movements of the companies' securities. Consequently, the
extra effort devoted to obtaining information about those companies made
it less likely that management could have known material bad news and
kept it from the market for an extended period.
FUTURE RESEARCH
There are several avenues for future research. First, cash flows
could be examined in lieu of net incomes or other income-statement
items. Second, differences among industries could be examined. Third,
differences among audit firms could be examined.
In addition, methodology could be varied. For example,
managements' incentives and resulting actions can be addressed not
only by capital-markets studies, but also by behaviorally-based studies,
analytical modeling, and studies which use experimental markets. This
would provide triangulation as suggested by Abdel-khalik and Ajinkya
(1979).
APPENDIX
Some Reasons for Auditor Switching
Burton and Roberts (1967) as accounting standards disputes
cited by Chow and Rice (1982, changes in management
327-328) demand for additional services
needs arising out of new financing
Fried and Schiff (1981, 327) changes in auditor fee structure
client's need for additional services
regular auditor rotation policy
Chow and Rice (1982, 328) qualified opinion rendered by audit
firm
Schwartz and Menon (1985) and attempts to influence the auditor
Teoh (1992)
Kluger and Shields (1987, also information suppression
cited in Haskins and Williams
1990)
Simunic and Stein (1987) and agency-theory-based Big 8
Francis and Wilson (1988), versus non-Big 8 product
both cited in Haskins and differentiation approach
Williams (1990)
Williams (1988) a management change in which new
management wishes to deal with the
firm it previously dealt with (247)
fast growth causing a need for a
larger audit firm (250) industry or
other specialization available in the
audit firm (250)
Francis and Wilson (1988, 668) diffusion of ownership
leverage
new securities issues
Knapp (1988, 42, who cited corporate managers' desire to
Bedingfield and Loeb 1974, 67; manipulate their firm's reported
Klott 1984; and Laventhol & financial condition
Horwath 1985)
Haskins and Williams (1990), opinion shopping
citing Chow and Rice (1982)
DeFond (1992, 17) agency conflicts
Anderson, Stokes, and Zimmer corporate takeovers
(1993)
Garsombke and Armitage timeliness of service
(1993, 95) lack of responsiveness
Dhaliwal, Schatzberg, and economic factors
Trombley (1993)
Krishnan (1994, 210-211) dissatisfaction with service
dissatisfaction over fees
disagreements over accounting issues
(opinion shopping)
management change
change of engagement partner
resignation of the account
initial public offerings
rapid growth
search for "credible auditors"
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Michael M. Grayson, Jackson State University
Michael S. Luehlfing, Louisiana Tech University
Table 1: Companies with only one switch which were excluded from
sample of auditor switches
Company Reason(s) for exclusion
American Stores Co. Auditor was switched simultaneous with change
in end of fiscal year.
Chiquita Brands Compustat indicates four changes in fiscal
year end during 1975 to 1994.
Craig Corp. Auditor was switched simultaneous with change
in end of fiscal year.
Decorator Industries Fiscal year end was changed within two years
following auditor switch.
Dole Food Co Inc. Auditor was switched simultaneous with change
in end of fiscal year.
FoxMeyer Health Corp. The company changed its fiscal year the year
after switching auditors.
General Motors Class E The company changed its fiscal year the year
after switching auditors.
Hondo Oil & Gas The auditor switch occurred when Pauley
Petroleum bought 81% of Hondo.
Placer Dome Income and auditor data were incorrect.
Ranger Oil Ltd. The auditor codes per Compustat were 9, 4, 4,
and 6 for years ended 12/86 through 12/89.
Per Moody's, the auditors were Thorne Riddell
for 1985, Thorne Ernst & Whinney for 1986 to
1988, and Peat Marwick Thorne for 1989. This
appears to be the same Canadian audit firm,
but the audit firm changed affiliations
during the period.
Table 2: Companies excluded (E) or data changed (C)
Part A. Differences in Auditor between Compustat and Moody's
Auditor per Company FYE Moody's Auditor per Compustat
Avon Products (E) 12/88 6 Coopers & Lybrand
Crystal Oil Co. 12/86 8 Touche Ross
Crystal Oil Co. (C) 12/87 6 Touche Ross
Crystal Oil Co. (C) 12/88 8 Peat Marwick
Crystal Oil Co. 12/89 6 Peat Marwick
CSS Industries Inc. (E) 1/80 8 Arthur Andersen
Gerber Scientific (E) 4/75 N/A Peat Marwick
Gerber Scientific (E) 4/76 7 Peat Marwick
Gerber Scientific (E) 4/77 6 Peat Marwick
Gerber Scientific (E) 4/78 6 Peat Marwick
Lee Pharmaceuticals (E) 9/80 5 Deloitte Haskins & Sells
Lee Pharmaceuticals (E) 9/81 7 Deloitte Haskins & Sells
Lehigh Group Inc. (E) 12/91 1 KPMG Peat Marwick in
summary listing, but
mentions Arthur
Andersen's audit report
Lehigh Group Inc. (E) 12/92 11 Arthur Andersen
Noble Affiliates 12/88 7 Price Waterhouse
Noble Affiliates (C) 12/89 1 Price Waterhouse
Noble Affiliates 12/90 1 Arthur Andersen
Placer Dome (E) 12/87 7 Clarkson Gordon; Price
Waterhouse
Placer Dome (E) 12/88 14 Clarkson Gordon; Price
Waterhouse
Placer Dome (E) 12/89 4 Ernst & Young; Price
Waterhouse
Placer Dome (E) 12/90 7 Price Waterhouse
Ply-Gem Industries (E) 12/82 9 (not determined)
Ply-Gem Industries (E) 12/83 7 Weinick, Sanders & Co.
Ply-Gem Industries (E) 12/84 9 (not determined)
Republic Gypsum (E) 6/88 2 Arthur Young
Republic Gypsum (E) 6/89 4 Ernst & Young
Republic Gypsum (E) 6/90 1 Ernst & Young
Republic Gypsum (E) 6/91 1 Ernst & Young
Scherer, R. P. (E) 3/89 1 (not determined)
Scherer, R. P. (E) 3/90 3 (unable to locate in
Moody's)
Scherer, R. P. (E) 3/91 1 (not determined)
Part B: Differences in Net Income between Compustat and Moody's
Company FYE Compustat Moody's
Placer Dome (E) 12/87 121.672 C$158.2
Placer Dome (E) 12/88 219.996 C$262.4
Placer Dome (E) 12/89 108.036 C$125.1
Placer Dome (E) 12/90 164.583 C$191.0
Placer Dome (E) 12/91 -236.200 C$236.2 loss
Placer Dome (E) 12/92 111.000 C$111.0
Note: C$ indicates amounts in Canadian dollars. Data sources give
net income in millions of dollars.
Table 3: Analyses of audit switches by Compustat variable DNUM
(SIC code) and by year of switch
Part A. Audit switches by Compustat variable DNUM
(four-digit SIC code)
less than 1000 0
1000 series 24
2000 series 52
3000 series 110
4000 series 16
5000 series 52
6000 series * 21
7000 series 20
8000 series 9
9000 series 1
Total 305
* Auditor codes are not available for banks, life insurance, or
property and casualty companies (Compustat 1994, 5-26), so those
companies are excluded.