Conceptual modelling of sustainable Vilnius development/Vilniaus darnaus vystymo konceptualus modeliavimas.

Kaklauskas, Arturas ; Zavadskas, Edmundas Kazimieras ; Saparauskas, Jonas 等

1. Introduction

Sustainable urban development has various approaches and different priorities in different countries. It is not surprising that there are widely divergent views and interpretations, with marked differences between countries that have a developed market economies, those with transition economies and in developing countries. Not all countries with one of theses three development levels understand sustainable urban development in the same way and so have different strategies.

Successful strategies for a sustainable urban development should be more-or-less compatible with political, economic, social, cultural, institutional, technological, environmental, legal/regulatory and educational situations in the country under consideration. A varied spectrum of strategies can be launched, while keeping in mind that the mix of influencing factors and the relative emphasis is on one or other of the factors and overall will depend on local conditions.

Therefore the best sustainable urban development strategy of another country cannot just be copied. Strategies may only be adapted into a real economic, social, political, legislation/ regulation and the provisional situation of the existing state. There is no such thing as a single sustainable urban development strategy to suit all societies and that could be applied to all countries.

The model for a rational and sustainable development of Vilnius suggested by this research is based on the presumption that the efficiency of sustainable urban development depends on many micro-, meso- and macro-level variables. The presence of specific variable factors immediately imposes objective limitations for efficient sustainable urban development. Such a development, in the presence of these objective limitations, tries to perform its functions within their bounds with the utmost efficiency. This research aims at producing a model of the rational sustainable Vilnius development by undertaking a complex analysis of micro-, meso- and macro-environment factors affecting it and to present recommendations on increasing its competitive ability.

Vilnius is the capital of Lithuania and one of the country's oldest cities. The honour of founding Vilnius is justly given to Gediminas (a Lithuanian Duke) in the year 1323. The capital is listed in the World Heritage Register of UNESCO. The Old Part of Vilnius is among the most prominent cultural monuments in the world. The population of Vilnius is 600,000 and within a radius of 50 km; 800.000 people live in the Vilnius metropolitan area. A population of 1.6 million people live in the combined counties of Vilnius and Kaunas, which form the main urban axis of Lithuania and the centres of which are separated by only 100 km. At present, the economy of Vilnius is growing much faster than the national economy and is exceeding the national average by 44%. According to the "Standard & Poor's" Agency (Vilnius ... 2008), foreign trading activities in Vilnius are the most active in Lithuania and besides Vilnius is the main receiver of the European Union's support and receives about 60% of foreign investment. The annual ratings announced by London Survey Company "Mercer Human Resource Consulting" (there were 215 cities rated) (Quality ... 2008) prove that Vilnius, according to its quality of life is the third top ranked city in Eastern Europe. Switzerland and Germany dominate the European cities with the best quality of living, each having three cities represented in the top 10. Bern, in Switzerland, ranks 9 following behind Zurich and Geneva. Dusseldorf (6), Munich and Frankfurt (both at 7) represent Germany. Outside the top 10 are Copenhagen (11), Amsterdam (13), Brussels (14), Berlin (16) and Luxembourg (17). Dublin, ranking 25, is followed by Paris (32), Barcelona (42) and Madrid (43). Lisbon is number 44 and is followed by Rome, 55, up from 61 in 2007. Prague (71) is the highestranking eastern European city followed by Budapest (74), Vilnius (78), Ljubljana (82) and Warsaw (85). Milan (41), Lisbon (44), Vilnius (78) and Riga (89) have become more attractive destinations, rising markedly in the rankings since 2007 (Quality ... 2008).

The paper is structured as follows. Following this introduction, Section 2 describes the Model for Sustainable Urban Development. In Section 3 we have provided a comparative description of sustainable urban development in developed countries and in Vilnius. A comparison and contrast of sustainable urban development in developed countries and Vilnius is presented in Section 4. Some general and particular recommendations correspondingly are presented in Section 5 and 6. An analysis of the life cycle of individual components and the entire sustainable Vilnius development is described in Section 7. Finally, some concluding remarks are provided in Section 8.

2. Model for sustainable urban development

The research's aim was to produce an analytical model of the rational sustainable development of Vilnius (SVD) by undertaking a complex analysis of micro-, meso- and macro-environment factors affecting it and to present recommendations on increasing its competitive ability. The research was performed (Kaklauskas 1998; Kaklauskas et al. 2005, 2006, 2007a, b; Zavadskas et al. 1994, 2004, 2005, 2007a, b; Zavadskas and Kaklauskas 2005, 2008) by studying the expertise of advanced industrial economies and by adapting it to Vilnius by taking into consideration its specific history, development level, needs and traditions. A simulation was undertaken to provide insight into creating an effective environment for the SVD by choosing rational micro-, meso- and macro-factors.

The level of efficiency and the scope of the activities in the sustainable urban development (SUD) depend on the many micro-, meso- and macro-level variable factors and all these variable factors can be optimized. The main objective of this model is to analyze the best experiences in the field of SUD, to compare it to the present situation in a particular city and consequently to present particular recommendations. In this particular case, the development perspectives of Vilnius were analyzed.

The word 'model' implies 'a system of game rules', which the sustainable Vilnius development could use to its best advantage.

The interested parties of the SUD cannot correct or alter the micro-, meso- and macro-level variables, but they can go into the essence of their effect and take them into consideration in their activities. Interested parties, by knowing the environment affecting their projects, can organize their present and future activities more successfully.

According to report of Competitive European Cities (Competitive ... 2004), cities operate within a set of powerful structural economic social, physical and institutional constraints and global economic changes, national policies and decision-making, history and geography can all place real constraints upon an individual city's capacity to perform well economically. For example, it is clear that cities which are at good strategic locations, have benign climates, attractive natural environments, no legacy of traditional industrial structures attitudes and values, operate in decentralized systems, have access to powerful regional governments, or simply benefited from lucky consequences of post-war relocation of private firms are more likely to be successful than cities which do not have these aspects (Competitive ... 2004).

This research included the following 5 stages.

Stage I. Comparative description of the sustainable urban development in developed countries and in Vilnius:

* A system of criteria characterizing the efficiency of sustainable urban development was determined by means of using relevant literature and experts methods;

* Based on a system of criteria, a description of the present state of sustainable urban development of developed and transitional countries and Vilnius is given in conceptual (textual, graphical, numerical, etc.) and quantitative forms.

Stage II. A comparison and contrast of sustainable urban development in developed countries and Vilnius includes:

* Identifying the global development trends (general regularities) of the sustainable urban development;

* Identifying sustainable urban development differences between developed countries and Vilnius;

* Determining pluses and minuses of these differences for Vilnius;

* Determining the best practice of sustainable urban development for Vilnius as based on the actual conditions.

Stage III. A development of some of the general recommendations as how to improve the efficiency levels for a sustainable Vilnius.

Stage IV. Submission of particular recommendations for the city of Vilnius was presented at this stage. Each of the general SUD recommendations proposed in the 5 stage carry several particular alternatives.

Stage V. A multiple criteria analysis of sustainable urban development components and a selection of the most efficient version of SUD's life cycle were determined at this stage. After this stage, the received compatible and rational components of a sustainable urban development are joined into the full sustainable urban development process.

3. Comparative description of the sustainable urban development in developed countries and in Vilnius

3.1. A system of criteria characterizing the efficiency of sustainable urban development

When drawing up the system of criteria that fully describes the life cycle of a sustainable urban development, it is worthwhile taking into account the suggestions of other researchers. This is explained by the fact that the goals pursued by the interested parties and the system of criteria describing the sustainable urban development in a certain sense is rather subjective. Therefore, in order to increase the degree of objectivity, the authors shall rely on the suggestions of specialists working in this field, when drawing up the system of criteria describing the sustainable urban development.

Micro-, meso- and macro-environments have a direct impact on sustainable urban development opportunities. This may facilitate sustainable urban development or, on the contrary, may create constraints. Until recently, researchers were unable to reach a unanimous conclusion as to the structure of factors of micro-, meso- and macro-environments and therefore several variations can be found in articles and books on this subject.

A study has been made by author of this paper in conceptual form of the under PHARE program (Kaklauskas, 1998) a description of some micro- and macro-level factors (e.g. government intervention, sources of company finance, information technology, labour skills, the transition indicators) relating to the SUD of various countries.

Ng and Hills (2003) made a comparison of global, local, human, social, cultural and environmental development of the largest cities of Asia (Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taipei and Shanghai) according to the following indicator system: Global Development (number of foreign government represented, number of international organization participated, exports in million USD, imports in million USD, etc.), Local Development (national internet services provider, expenditure on R&D as % of GDP; cost of living index according to Mercer, etc.), Human Resources (adult literacy rate, population holding post-secondary qualification, etc.); Health (death rate per 100,000 population, suicides, etc.), Environment (wastewater treated in some way, wastewater with secondary treatment, etc.), Transport (proportion of journeys using public transport, number of vehicles per kilometer of road, etc.), Arts and Culture (number of museums (public and private), public expenditure on arts or culture (% of total budget), etc.), Entertainment and Media (number of TV channels: (local and cable/satellite), number of films screened annually, etc.).

The purpose of the Framework 5 project INTELCITY (Intelcity ... 2003) was the development of a research "roadmap" (one of the authors of this article participated in this project as an expert). This implies that identifying possible future visions and scenarios for the intelligent application of information communication technologies will enable cities to become more sustainable and able to map out research paths that offer the most potential in assisting society to implement them. Visions of the intelligent city see the potential for ICTs in helping to solve many of the current problems in cities, both in terms of the design and redevelopment processes and in terms of their operation and use. The main outcome was 5 alternative visions and scenarios for the city of the future in the knowledge society: e-democracy city (social inclusiveness), virtual city (resource efficiency), cultural city (preservation of culture and diversity), environmental city (ecological protection) and post-catastrophe-city (resilience). On the basis of these possible future perspectives of urban development a large number of other alternative scenarios may be framed and forecasted.

These scenarios were analyzed on the basis of the following criteria groups (Intelcity ... 2003): equity, participation, accessibility, decentralized decision making, safety, education, non-complexity, cultural heritage, population density, age distribution, migration, employment, globalization, distribution equity, allocative efficiency, optimization of use of resources, environment aesthetics, health situation, compact city design, multifunctionality, integration of technologies, degree of innovation, security of data, decision support systems, real time simulation, nD modelling and simulation, ICT domination, accessibility of technologies and information, information richness, technology awareness and societal integration of technologies.

In Framework Project 6 "Intelligent Cities" (Intelligent Cities ... 2004-2005) these and other scenarios were further analyzed. For example, the modern city aims at being a "knowledge capital" and depends on education. The educated city should be accessible to all its citizens. The strengths of the educated city are: Infrastructure (pre-school provision, quality schools for all, diversity of educational opportunity (e.g. faith schools, specialist colleges), availability of higher education facilities, high penetration of new technologies enabling learning opportunities), People (culture of learning, lifelong learning opportunities, the "creative class", a skilled workforce), Business (links between education and businesses, good job opportunities), Culture (good public libraries and archives, high number of cultural assets, close proximity of educational facilities to each other and to cultural assets).

The above-mentioned authors and the authors of this paper thoroughly analyzed the city on the basis of human, social, cultural, environmental, technical, technological and other indicators, whereas the authors cited below analyzed the possibilities of urban development according to individual indicator groups (for example, climate changes, air pollution, transport, etc.) with no deeper analysis of the overall urban vision.

Yoon and Lee (2003) created a model for evaluating urban sustainability. They collected indicators showing climatic changes and air pollution in cities. These authors selected 57 towns of South Korea and divided them into 3 categories--large, medium and small. They framed the system's sustainability indicators as: population, the number of registered vehicles, the number of establishment, energy consumption, C[O.sub.2] emissions, S[O.sub.2] emissions, C[O.sub.2] concentration, S[O.sub.2] concentration, changes of land use in built-up areas, green areas, the number of tropical night, temperature of a city and reforestation.

Lithuanian researchers (Viteikiene 2006; Viteikiene and Zavadskas 2007; Zavadskas et al. 2007c) created original methodology for urban sustainability evaluation and compared residential districts of particular city.

One of the authors of the article by participating in the project e-City (e-City ... 2003), carried out in Vilnius, established that the choice of public vehicles in most cases is determined by the quality of services rendered by it and this quality can be expressed through the following criteria system:

* Appropriate tariffs-tariff rate, the desirable public services.

* Convenience of travel-time of travel, reliability, frequency, cleanliness, comfort, information, combined tickets, flexibility.

* The accessibility of public transport, system-the needs of people with limited movement ability, construction of a vehicle, station models-convenient change of vehicle near the areas requiring travel to public transport.

* Safety-safety standards, quality of lighting, staff qualification, number of staff on duty/ security personnel.

* Effect on environment-emission and release, noise and infrastructure.

While drawing up the criteria system, the experience of transitional countries was also analyzed.

For example, Oradea (Romania) city's development strategy (Assessment ... 2001), has been analyzed according to a 4 criteria system:

1. Enabling environment for economic development.

2. Living environment and social equity.

3. Strategic urban management practices.

4. Public finance sustainability.

These criteria systems were analyzed even more thoroughly because of their relevance. For example, the criteria system "Enabling environment for economic development" includes the following subsystems: building partnerships for regional development, strategic partnerships with private sector, land management program, urban revitalization, local legal framework for economic development, whereas the criteria system "Living environment and social equity" includes the following subsystems: housing policy, public service improvements, environmental improvements, social inclusion. Further, these subsystems were analyzed even more thoroughly. For example, the criteria subsystem "housing policy" was comprised of the following criteria: social housing, rehabilitation, asset management financing, housing management policies and the improvement of surrounding environments.

Following the above-mentioned and other criteria systems, the generalized criteria system for a thorough description of sustainable development of Vilnius was framed. In order to adapt this criteria system to Vilnius, 28 experts of this field and residents were asked to select the criteria, which correspond in the best way to the development of Vilnius.

Semi-structured and open-ended question interviews were used as the means for questioning a diverse group of experts and respondents who live in Vilnius and to describe their expectations and experiences during their assessment of sustainable urban development of Vilnius. 28 persons took part in face-to-face interviews: 4 interviews with couples and 20 with individuals were completed. To maximize the range of possible experiences and opinions, we included persons of diverse ethnicity, educational levels and age and gender status. After questioning 28 respondents and processing the obtained results by using an expert's method, the concrete system of criteria characterizing the efficiency of sustainable urban development were identified. Some of the established criteria are presented below: GDP per capita, unemployment rate, demographic changes, pollution minimization, globalization processes, efficient urban size, housing, sources of municipal revenue, quality of life, personal safety, living environment and social equity, provision of affordable and qualified housing by low- and moderate-income households, diffusion of urban growth, tourism, changing of inhabitants, attitudes, optimization of electricity use, rationalization of land use, optimization urban, infrastructure, urban regeneration, increasing of education level and skilled workforce. These factors will be subsequently analyzed in brief.

3.2. Description of the present state of sustainable urban development of developed and transition countries and of Vilnius

Based on several criteria, a description of the present state of sustainable urban development of developed and transitional countries and of Vilnius was given in conceptual (textual, graphical, numerical, etc.) and quantitative forms.

The current state of sustainable buildings and trends of its development were analyzed from various perspectives. ISO TS 21929 defines that sustainable building brings about the required performance with the least unfavourable environmental impact, while encouraging economic, social and cultural improvement at a local, regional and global level.

ISO TS 21929 defines a framework for sustainability indicators of buildings. Environmental indicators address environmental aspects in terms of environmental loadings or impacts assessed on the basis of life cycle inventory or assessment. Environmental loadings are the use of resources and the production of waste, odours, noise and harmful emissions to land, water and air. Consequential environmental indicators express environmental impacts in terms of building performance or location either quantitatively or qualitatively.

The principles of sustainable development define the ecological, economic, social and cultural framework for the activities of communities, enterprises and individual citizens. Vision for a Sustainable and Competitive Construction Sector by the European Construction Technology Platform states (ECTP 2006) that "In the year 2030, Europe's built environment is designed, built and maintained by a successful knowledge and demand driven sector, well known for its ability to satisfy all needs of its clients and society, providing a high quality of life and demonstrating its long-term responsibility to the mankind's environment. ... In order to meet this vision, objectives and research targets are specified for 2 key aspects of construction: Meeting client requirements and reaching sustainability".

ISO TS 21929 defines that sustainable building brings about the required performance with the least unfavourable environmental impact, while encouraging economic, social and cultural improvement at a local, regional and global level.

The t3 main types of benefits associated with sustainable construction are environmental, economic and health and community benefits. Environmental benefits include improved air and water quality, reduced energy and water consumption and reduced waste disposal. Economic benefits include reduced operational costs, reduced maintenance costs and increase revenue (sale price or rent). Health and community benefits include enhanced occupant comfort and health, reduced absenteeism and turnover rate, and reduced liabilities (Andrews et al. 2006).

Jureviciene et al. (2008) studied home purchase conditions for the youths. Ambrasas and Stankevicius (2007) made analysis on dwelling market of Vilnius town. Raslanas et al. (2006) compared prices of flats in London and Vilnius. Yetgin and Lepkova (2007) compared housing policies in Turkey and Lithuania.

One of the examples of conceptual description is provided in Assessment of the Oradea City Development Strategy (Assessment ... 2001). For example, the linkages of criteria system "Living environment and social equity", describing the development strategy of Oradea (Romania) city with supporting policies is provided in it. Also the graphic information provided is about the sources of municipal revenue in the municipality of Oradea, etc.

Information on the rating of different cities of the world according to the quality of life is provided in the different Web sites (Competitive ... 2004; Swiss ... 2008; Quality ... 2008). European cities dominate the worldwide rankings of locations with the best quality of living, according to Mercer's 2008 Quality of Living survey. Zurich retains its 2007 title as the highest ranked city, followed jointly by Vienna (2), Geneva (2), then Vancouver (4) and Auckland (5) (Swiss ... 2008).

The present state of sustainable urban development of developed and transitional countries and of Vilnius, in conceptual (textual, graphical, numerical, etc.) and quantitative forms, has been described analogously.

4. A comparison and contrast of the sustainable urban development in developed countries and in Vilnius

4.1. Identifying global development trends (general regularities) of the sustainable urban development

The investigation carried out by the authors of this paper under "Intelligent Cities" (Intelligent Cities ... 2004-2005), e-City (e-City ... 2003), INTELCITY (Intelcity ... 2003), Phare program (Kaklauskas 1998), Brita in PuBs (Kaklauskas, Kanapeckiene 2005) and other projects (Kaklauskas et al. 2005; Zavadskas et al. 2004, 2007a, b, c; Zavadskas and Kaklauskas 2008; Mickaityte et al. 2007, 2008) helped to identify and describe major trends of sustainable urban development in industrialized countries as well as providing recommendations for Vilnius's development. The comparative quantitative and conceptual analysis of sustainable urban development carried out in developed countries and in Vilnius allowed the authors to identify areas where the situation in Vilnius is comparable, partly comparable with or quite different from the levels attained by the foreign developed cities. The data from this quantitative and conceptual analysis were used in identifying sustainable urban development trends in Western Europe and the USA as well as providing some recommendations for Vilnius.

The analyzed global tendencies of sustainable urban development may be divided into 3 types. Some tendencies, e.g. globalization, interest rates, inflation, the unofficial economy, etc. affecting the urban changes cannot be influenced by city authorities, organizations acting in it or people residing in it. A city in one form or another can influence a large number of other tendencies, e.g. the quality of labour, education and training, the cultural, residential and physical environment, the planning and fiscal regimes, the communication and transportation infrastructure. There are also some effective urban development tendencies that can be influenced by joint actions of city and state authorities. Some of the above-mentioned tendencies stimulating the sustainable urban development are provided in Table 1.

4.2. Identifying sustainable urban developmental differences between developed countries and Vilnius

According to Competitive European Cities (Competitive ... 2004), cities at the periphery face different economic, social and environmental challenges than those in the centre of Europe and there is not one single model of a European city and the challenges are not the same in every city.

Vilnius varies from the compared cities by economic structure and functions, social, planning and legislative systems, institutions, traditions and cultures, economic performance, institutional arrangements and government policy, immigrant communities, personal safety rankings and other indicators.

As an example, the authors provide a generalized analysis of sustainability indicators of several Western European cities (Intelligent Cities ... 2004-2005; e-City ... 2003; Intelcity ... 2003; Competitive ... 2004; Swiss ... 2008; Quality ... 2008) and Vilnius (Pavilenene 2008; Vilnius ... 2008). This analysis shows how much the sustainability of an "average" Western European city differs from that of Vilnius. The indicator values of an average Western European city are calculated by deriving the means of specific indicators of a group of Western European cities. For example, on average the part of the population employed in production in Western European cities is much smaller than in Vilnius. However, the employment of the population in the service sphere is lower than in Vilnius. More considerable changes in the number of the Vilnius population can negatively affect the urban sustainability, because unemployment can rise and the dwellings may become more expensive, etc.

Also, the security in Western European cities is in average higher (criminal situation, compliance of the citizens to law, internal urban stability) and the quality of life is also higher than in Vilnius. The quality of life is expressed by describing 39 different political, economic, environmental factors, as well as education, health protection and other public services.

Vilnius lands in the 78th position and Riga in 89th position in the Mercer's annual worldwide quality of living ranking. Zurich scores highest for overall quality of living, while Baghdad--the lowest. Luxembourg ranks highest for personal safety and Baghdad--the lowest. Outside the top 10 are Copenhagen (11), Amsterdam (13), Brussels (14), Berlin (16) and Luxembourg (17). Dublin, ranking 25, is followed by Paris (32), Barcelona (42) and Madrid (43). Lisbon is number 44 and it is followed by Rome, 55, up from 61 in 2007. Prague (71) is the highest-ranking eastern European city followed by Budapest (74), Vilnius (78), Ljubljana (82) and Warsaw (85). The lowest ranking European city is Minsk (183) in Belarus. Minsk scores 49.4 on the index compared with Zurich's 108. Milan (41), Lisbon (44), Vilnius (78) and Riga (89) have also become more attractive destinations, rising markedly in the rankings since 2007. These data were collected in the 2008 (Pavilenene 2008).

4.3. Determining pluses and minuses of these differences for Vilnius

After the analysis of Vilnius and comparing cities it was established that Vilnius falls behind them according to a number of quantitative and qualitative indicators. Some of the indicators are provided below.

* GDP, productivity and innovation levels are lower.

* ICT facilities are not well developed; low level of ICT penetration in such sectors as education, health services, lower-tier municipal institutions; narrow scope of e-Government services, a lack of detailed and sound public policy on the matter.

* Despite the size of student numbers, universities do not serve well the needs of the local economy; the educational system is not labour market driven; insufficient funding in per student basis.

* Vilnius is too small to punch its weight in European and global markets: small domestic market.

* A weak and deteriorating physical infrastructure.

* Skills deficit in the labour force (after the accession of Lithuania into the EU a rather large number of employees with high qualification went to work in EU countries, where the salary is much higher, the population is rather old and they have with experiences of a planned economy and deep imprints of a socialistic mentality.

* Low levels of R&D investment and commercialization, R&D policy not adapted to market conditions, feeble and fragmented R&D activities in the private sector; unsteady relations or a lack of relations between research institutes and the business community.

* Prevalence of intensemanufacturing, mostly low-technology sectors. Low-skilled intense export sectors; insufficient manufacturing modernization. Insufficient compliance with EU quality manufacturing standards.

* A fairly large informal economy.

* Weak traditions of state institutions' cooperation with the private sector as a partner: widespread belief in ability to solve all problems by administrative measures, disregard to market laws.

* Demographic trends are negative.

* A lack of structural reforms in the social area: health sector is already faced with financial difficulties; pension reform starts from 2004.

However, Vilnius has several advantages in comparison to the analyzed cities:

* Strong GDP growth.

* Strong productivity growth.

* Relatively low intense costs.

* Favourable geographical location between Eastern and Western markets.

* Relatively low profit tax.

* There are comparatively many green areas (trees, parks) in Vilnius.

4.4. Determining the best practice for sustainable urban development for Vilnius as based on the actual conditions

Information on best practice examples of sustainable urban development can be found in different sources. While implementing projects "Intelligent Cities" (Intelligent Cities ... 2004-2005), e-City (e-City ... 2003), Brita in PuBs (Kaklauskas and Kanapeckiene 2005) other projects (Kaklauskas et al. 2005; Zavadskas et al. 2004, 2007a, b; Zavadskas and Kaklauskas 2008) and the Phare program (Kaklauskas 1998), the experiences of different cities was analyzed by the authors of this paper and it helped to determine the best practice for sustainable urban development in Vilnius. Hereinafter several examples of the best practices are provided:

* In many cities residents living in social housing are able to access a range of services electronically, including: information about their tenancy such as rent, reporting repairs or booking appointments on-line, on-line benefit calculators, paying rates or local taxes, rubbish removal, streetlight, pavement or road repairs. Even people without direct ac cess to computers can use one-stop-shop call centres that are in turn using technology to deliver a range of local services (Campbell et al. 2004).

* Estonia's cabinet meetings have only computers on their tables. Ministers do not need paper because each can put speaking notes onto the computer and other ministers can make their own comments before the meeting. All ministers and their assistants have access to a ministerial chat room for this purpose. This makes things work faster.

* Parliamentarian activities are one of the areas in which technology, and more specifically the Internet, has been used to create and support both geographical and virtual communities. Community portals have proliferated and these are broadly of 2 types: creating a virtual space for 'communities of interest'; on-line access to information and services for residents of specific geographical areas. Whilst the former can exist devoid of any shared physical space and bring together users who are separated by large distances and never likely to meet, the latter is built on the potential for 'real space and real-time' interaction of users. Its aim is to support users as they live in their cities and communities, enabling decision-making, providing another access route to services, and a forum for discussion. For many users, community websites are a comfortable introduction to using technology, and an empowering learning experience. The East Manchester community website--www.Eastserve.com--was developed with those objectives and continues to support a lively user community (Campbell et al. 2004).

5. Development of some general recommendations

It should be noted that the choice of a worldwide trend of development in sustainable Vilnius development is highly dependent on the actual situation. For example, since Lithuania recently became a member of the European Union, it is quite natural that the economic, social and legislative situation in Lithuania and old EU countries are in some cases different. This is particularly obvious when the Western countries tendency towards the reduction of public expenditure on housing is considered. Reduction of public expenditure on housing will be suitable for Lithuania only in the future, when a clearer improvement of housing conditions of most people has been achieved. This is because a substantial majority of the Lithuanian population is facing increasing difficulties in paying for housing. Therefore, while working out an analytical model of sustainable Vilnius development under different projects ("Intelligent Cities", Intelligent Cities ... 2004-2005), e-City (e-City ... 2003), INTELCITY (Intelcity ... 2003), Brita in PuBs (Kaklauskas, Kanapeckiene 2005) and other projects (Kaklauskas et al. 2005; Zavadskas et al. 2004, 2007a, b, c; Zavadskas and Kaklauskas 2008) major international trends of urban development were considered by taking into account the actual economic, social, legislative, political and technological situation in Vilnius.

The best economic solutions of other countries cannot just be copied. They may only be adopted in a real economic, social, political, legislation/regulation and provision situation of the state. There is no such thing as a single economic solution for all societies. Economic systems depend on the political objectives of government and the interaction of political groupings. Economic systems may be seen to lie on a spectrum of systems ranging from centrally planned (communist) to free market (capitalist). In fact, most countries have adopted economic systems that have elements of both types.

Development of some general recommendations as to how to improve the efficiency levels for sustainable Vilnius development is presented in Table 1.

With regard to the successful experiences of foreign countries, it can be stated that Vilnius has a number of opportunities by using the know-how of investors and EU support, expanding international co-operation, to redesign public administration and to cut bureaucracy using the EU know-how, financial support and spirit of changes; opportunities of the EU support, e.g. exchange programs, structural funds enabling to increase the urban efficiency and sustainability. The threats of the growth of intense costs;, direct transmission of EU legislation without regard to local problems, these priorities and traditions can give the opposite results, e.g., the threat to misuse, or actual misuse of, regulatory powers by so-called independent regulators; growth of intense costs due to expanding regulations, bureaucracy and heavy intense taxation; growing pressure on the textile industry; increased "brain drain" of ICT specialists and the reduction of opportunities to reach the average or higher level of EU urban sustainability should be kept in mind.

6. Submission of particular recommendations for the city of Vilnius

A submission of particular recommendations for the city of Vilnius is presented at this stage. Each of the general SVD recommendations proposed in the 5th stage carry several particular alternatives. For example, by implementing the e-City (e-City ... 2003) project a large number of worldwide public transport passenger and operators information systems have been analyzed.

On the basis of the analysis of the best practice, the condition in this sphere of Vilnius, its available resources and acquired experiences and specific requirements for establishing such systems in Vilnius have been proposed. For example, 20 opportunities and requirements were described for the establishment of a public transport passenger information system. Hereinafter some of these requirements are provided in brief:

* Provision of integrated information. The multimodal travel implies the holding simultaneously of transport modes and operators. Thus, the user searches and compares information relating to a single travel (schedule, route, prices) through several operators, thus different sources.

* Provision of a decisional help in order to optimize user's choice while allowing him/her to take his/her own criteria into account. The limited rationality of the traveller implies that his/her knowledge and means are limited because it is impossible to discover all the possible solutions for a unique problem and to predict all the possible consequences.

* Provisional advice such as the avoidance of the congested area, alternative routes, the avoidance of unsafe area after certain time, etc.

* Provision of real time information about waiting time and vehicle position. Preferably, the real time information is installed at network stops (bus and trolleybus stops) and onboard.

7. An analysis of a life cycle of individual components and the entire sustainable development of Vilnius

A multiple criteria analysis of the sustainable development's components of Vilnius (Table 1) and selection of the most efficient versions can be determined at this stage. After this stage, the received compatible and rational components of a sustainable urban development can be joined into the full sustainable urban development process.

In order to efficiently design and implement SVD, it is necessary to investigate as many of the possible alternative solutions for each variable and then to select the most rational one. The selected variables are then combined into one efficient development process. Hence, the efficiency of a development process will depend to a very great extent not only on the selected variables, but also on macro and micro factors affecting them.

The results of this quantitative and conceptual analysis may be widely used for identifying and solving the problems facing sustainable urban development as far as ways and methods of raising its efficiency are concerned.

In order to achieve this goal, multiple criteria decision-making methods developed by authors (Zavadskas et al. 1994, Kaklauskas 1998) may be used and are as follows:

* A new method of the complex determination of the weight of the criteria, taking into account their quantitative and qualitative characteristics, was developed. This method allows one to calculate and co-ordinate the weights of the quantitative and qualitative criteria according to the above characteristics.

* A new method of multiple criteria complex proportional evaluation of the SUD projects, that enable the user to obtain a reduced criterion determining the complex (overall) efficiency of the project, was suggested. This generalized criterion is directly proportional to the relative effect of the values and weights of the considered criteria, on the efficiency of the SUD project.

* In order to find what price will make a valuated SUD project competitive on the market, a method for determining the utility degree and the market value of projects and based on the complex analysis of all their benefits and drawbacks was suggested. According to this method, the SUD project's utility degree and the market value of a project that is being estimated and are directly proportional to the system of the criteria and adequately describe them, the values and the weights of these criteria.

* A new method of multiple criteria multi-variant design of a SUD project's life cycle, enabling the user to make computer-aided design of up to 100,000 alternative project versions, was developed. Any SUD project's life-cycle variant obtained in this way is based on quantitative and conceptual information. The ideas expressed in this paragraph will be provided more fully in the next article.

8. Conclusions

The following aspects were analyzed in this paper, and the conclusions are as follows:

* Cities should be well informed of the micro-, meso- and macro-environment levels in which they operate.

* Cities analyze the micro- meso- and macro-environment levels and distribute their resources to take advantage of the opportunities and to minimize threats to their activities.

* Micro-, meso- and macro-level factors can be optimized.

* Model for sustainable Vilnius development has been developed.

* Some global development trends (general regularities) of the sustainable urban development have been identified.

* Some general and particular recommendations how to improve the efficiency levels for a sustainable Vilnius have been developed.

Acknowledgement. The authors of the article are grateful to the front offices of "Intelligent Cities" (Intelligent Cities ... 2004-2005), e-City (e-City ... 2003), INTELCITY (Intelcity ... 2003), Brita in PuBs (Kaklauskas, Kanapeckiene 2005) other projects (Kaklauskas et al. 2005; Zavadskas et al. 2004, 2007a, b, c; Zavadskas and Kaklauskas 2008) as well as of Phare program (Kaklauskas 1998) for the opportunity to participate in the above research, due to which this article came into existence. We are truly grateful to the citizen of Australia--Nin Bizis for the contribution with English language of the paper.

Received 17 September 2008; accepted 23 January 2009

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doi: 10.3846/1392-8619.2009.15.154-177

Arturas KAKLAUSKAS. Prof PhD DrSc. Chair in Construction Economics and Real Estate Management Department and Vice-director of the Institute of Internet and Intelligent Technologies at the Vilnius Gediminas Technical University. Lithuanian Science Prize Laureate, Expert member of Lithuanian Academy of Sciences, Leader of the CIB Study group SG1 "The Application of Internet Technologies in Building Economics" and past Advisor of the e-Business W@tch Web for ICT and Electronic Business in the Construction Industry. Editor of "International Journal of Strategic Property Management, "Journal of Civil Engineering and Management" and editor of "Facilities" for Central and Eastern Europe. He participated in 9 Framework 5 and 6 projects and author of 221 research publications and 7 monographs.

Edmundas Kazimieras ZAVADSKAS is a principal vice-rector of Vilnius Gediminas Technical University and head of the Dept. of Construction Technology and Management at Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Vilnius, Lithuania. He has a PhD in building structures (1973) and Dr Sc (1987) in building technology and management. He is a member of Lithuanian and several foreign Academies of Sciences and doctor honoris causa at Poznan, Saint-Petersburg, and Kiev Universities. He is also a member of international organisations and was a member of steering and programme committees at many international conferences. E. K. Zavadskas is a member of editorial boards of several research journals as well as the author and co-author of more than 300 papers and a number of monographs in Lithuanian, English, German and Russian. Research interests: building technology and management, decision-making theory, automated design and decision support systems.

Jonas SAPARAUSKAS. Doctor, Associate Professor. Department of Construction Technology and Management. Vilnius Gediminas Technical University. First degree in civil engineering, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University (1997). Master of Science (1999). Doctor (2004). Research visits to Leipzig Higher School of Technology, Economics and Culture (Germany, 2000 and 2001) and Eindhoven University of Technology (The Netherlands, 2002). Researcher in International Project "Inteligent cities" (2004), Member of the EWG-MCDA Working Group within EURO since 2002. Author of about 15 scientific articles. Research interests: construction technology and organisation, project management, multiple criteria decision making and sustainable urban development.

Arturas Kaklauskas (1), Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas (2), Jonas Saparauskas (3)

(1) Department of Construction Economics and Property Management, (2,3) Department of Construction Technology and Management, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Sauletekio al. 11, LT-10223 Vilnius, Lithuania E-mail: (1) [email protected]; (2) [email protected]; (3) [email protected]

Table 1. Identification of global development trends (general
regularities) of the sustainable urban development and the
presentation of some general recommendations as how to improve
the efficiency levels for sustainable Vilnius

 Production of
 recommendations for the
 improvement of the
 efficiency Vilnius
Factors and their trends sustainable development

Culture

Studies of the city traditionally To stimulate culture
posit a division between a city's components of Vilnius
economy and its culture, with culture through political and
subordinate in explanatory power to economic processes
work. However, post-industrial and
globalizing trends are dramatically
elevating the importance of culture.
Cultural activities become increasingly
crucial to urban economic vitality.
Models to explain the growth of cities
from the era of industrial manufacturing
are outmoded. Some have seen
globalization, the wired city, and
electronic communication as destroying
cities as proximity should decline in
importance. This may be correct for
some production concerns, but this, in
turn, raises questions about
consumption versus production decisions
affecting urban growth and dynamics.
Even in a former industrial power like
Chicago, the number one industry has
become entertainment, which city
officials define to include tourism,
conventions, restaurants, hotels,
and related economic activities.
Citizens in the post-industrial city
increasingly make "quality of life"
demands, treating their own urban
location as if tourists, emphasizing
aesthetic concerns. These practices
impact considerations about the
proper nature of amenities that
post-industrial cities can sustain.
The city increasingly becomes an
Entertainment Machine, leveraging
culture to enhance its economic
well-being. The entertainment
components of cities are actively and
strategically produced through
political and economic processes
(Clark et al. 2003).

Globalization processes

Globalization process is so influential To maintain close
that almost no major cities remain relations with capital
unaffected, and has in turn given cities and other cities in
birth to "global cities", the term different countries. To
recently used to describe the make cities venues of
development of large cities in the various political,
world in light of global economic cultural, sports events. To
restructuring--a process of shifts improve foreign guest
in the international division of accommodation conditions,
labour and concomitant changes in carry out energetic
the production system and social tourism business
regulation institutions. The recent marketing policies and
economic and monetary crises that badly develop the city's tourist
hit Indonesia, however, basically show information-technical
that the globalization does not only infrastructure. Encourage
have positive impacts but also can have international transit
negative impacts on urban development transport flows.
(Firman 2004).

Decentralization of powers and
responsibilities to lower levels of
government

In all countries, policy makers are Decentralization of powers
grappling with the need to reduce and responsibilities to
centralization, improve the performance lower levels of government
of national and local governments, and increasing the
de-bureaucratize delivery systems and authority of regional and
to create partnership mechanisms and urban institutions.
cultures. The balance between national,
regional and local responsibilities
and powers has been changing in many
European countries. In particular,
there has been a growing pattern of
decentralization of powers and
responsibilities to lower levels of
government. Traditionally decentralized
countries like Germany have continued
that process. But even countries more
traditionally centralized like Belgium,
France, Spain and Italy have
been creating or increasing the
authority of regional and urban
institutions during the past decade
(Competitive ... 2004).

Efficient urban size

Among other factors, it is suggested To achieve a balanced and
that urban sustainability is also controllable growth of the
correlated to efficient urban size city's population.
(Capello and Faggian 2002). Tolley
identified and started to measure To strive for such a size
private and social costs and benefits of the city that the
of increases in city sizes, with a conditions for business
suggestion that in larger cities in development and for
the US, it appeared that the social people to live in that
marginal costs exceeded the social would be the best, while
marginal benefits, implying that these the city's exploitation
cities tended to be over-sized. For any and development would
city, its optimal size is need minimal expenses.
elusive--highly sensitive to its
composition of production, its
geographic and regional setting, the
quality of governance and
administration available to it, and its
population composition and demographics
(Henderson 2002).

Demographic changes

Transition-country cities need urgently Urgently need to find new
to find new ways of raising financial ways of raising financial
resources to meet the huge needs resources to meet the
arising from population huge needs arising from
resettlement (Willoughby 2001). population resettlements.

Provision of affordable and qualified
housing by low and moderate income
households

Public housing programs, sites and To stimulate dwelling house
services and upgrading have all been construction, renovation
attempted as ways of meeting the and development of
housing needs of the population with unattractive dwelling city
limited success. Yet over time, districts. To expand the
informal settlements do improve in social housing fund,
quality, providing satisfactory living providing disadvantaged
conditions for a large proportion of people with housing.
the urban population (Fekade 2000).
Te Department of Housing and Urban
Development established quantitative
Affordable Housing Goals requiring the
Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs)
to increase their purchases of
mortgages originated by low- and
moderate-income households and for
homes located in low-income
neighbourhoods. The goals increased
the supply of mortgage credit available
to low- and moderate-income
households, after controlling for other
mortgage market factors
(Anderson et al. 2003).

Diffusion of urban growth

Most governments now recognize that Diffusion of urban growth,
diffusion of urban growth, rather rather than its control
than its control and suppression, and suppression is
is essential for economic development. essential for economic
Policies aimed at creating a "balanced" development
pattern of urban development in Asian
countries over the past 3 decades have
largely failed. Programs to slow
rural-urban migration and to control
the expansion of metropolitan areas
fell far short of their goals. Most
governments now recognize that
diffusion of urban growth, rather
than its control and suppression, is
essential for economic development
(Rondinelli 2006).

Tourism

Tourism can play an important part in Tourism can play an
economic development strategies important part in economic
for many older cities by providing development strategies
jobs, but cities will also have
to provide improved quality of life in
the form of, e. g. restaurants, shops,
activities and entertainment (Hall and
Page 2008). Tourism business is not
only economically beneficial process.
The system of tourism oriented towards
a mass development also has some
negative influence on the environment
(Grundey 2008).

Changing of inhabitant's attitudes

Inhabitants can change their To encourage residents to
residential behaviour depending on take care of their health
the properties of their neighbourhood, and environment and
neighbours and the whole city (Benenson strengthen the social
1998). The global village patterns of spirit. To take more
Tihingan, an village characterized by active steps in the fight
high kinship differentiation, reveals against violations of
that the weakening village boundaries children's rights,
and the changing spatial connectivity unsocial behaviour and
between house-yards are directly crime among teenagers.
related to the weakening social
differentiation between rival
kin-groups and between different
castes (Sentosa 2001).

Optimization of electricity use

For electricity use, where there is Improving technologies of
evidence of dramatic increases in electricity's use in the
household consumption, the household sector by
longer-term implications for stimulation through market
atmospheric emissions are troubling. and policy mechanisms
Improving technologies of electricity
use in the household sector appears to
be easily achievable and could be
stimulated through market and policy
mechanisms that have been used
elsewhere. These measures offer the
prospect of real environmental and
economic gains without sacrificing
lifestyle advantages of electrical
appliance use in households (Tyler
1996).

Rationalization of land use

Population growth and redistribution To implement policies of
generate urban development in both the coherent development
metropolitan and non-metropolitan of commercial and
counties throughout the USA. Land industrial territories of
use policies designed to protect the city. To maintain
environmental quality in urbanizing the most valuable parklands
landscapes should focus, therefore, on by adapting them for
accomplishing at least 3 objectives: tourist and recreational
(1) minimize further fragmentation of purposes. To meet the
the ecological infrastructure; (2) demands of new residential
restore, where practical, severed sustainable urban
linkages in the ecological development, commercial,
infrastructure; and (3) guide new services and small
development to locations near existing business investors with
urban centres (Lichter et al. 2005). regard to the acquisition
 of land. To give priority
eThe Valencian Mediterranean Region to development within the
is one of the most dynamic regions city's borders. To
of Spain in terms of industrial-urban restrict the use of new
development, population growth and territories. To carry out
agrarian activity. Consequently, the development of the
land-use conflicts (agrarian uses vs. city in areas, where it is
industrial-urban uses vs. conservation possible to utilize in an
uses) and environmental issues (surface efficient manner the
and underground water pollution, existing social,
soil and air pollution, soil erosion engineering infrastructure
and Stalinization, landscape and to make denser the
degradation and deterioration of areas areas, where the territory
of high conservation value) are was built up in an
emerging increasingly in this region. irrational manner. To
Comprehensive land-use planning improve the quality of the
can play a vital role in solving environment and maintain
land-use conflicts in the region a balance between
(Recatala et al. 2000). parklands and built-up
 areas. To restrict low-rise
In the Netherlands, a debate continues sustainable urban
to take place on how to allocate the development to suburbs.
available space among several types of To build multistory
land use. The rural area is under buildings in the central
constant pressure from urban parts of the city.
developments. Multi-purpose land use To preserve as many
is becoming more and more important. residential buildings
Typically, however, the analysis of as possible in the old
topological relationships, initiated by town and other important
biophysical and socio-economic historic sections of the
processes, and the spatial city.
configuration of different land uses,
is often neglected, especially for
agricultural planning. Neglecting the
spatial configuration and these
relationships can result in spatial
fragmentation of land use, thus
endangering sustainable land use
(Carsjens and van der Knaap 2002).
The principle of sustainable
development applied in physical
planning must ensure governance of
rational use of territories and harmony
between effective social-economic
development and maximal protection of
natural resources and landscape
(Kavaliauskas 2008).

Optimization of urban infrastructure

Rising energy prices and supply To try to bring the city's
shortfalls have underscored the need social and engineering
to improve the energy efficiency of infrastructure up to the
urban travel. To test the degree latest requirements.
to which altering development patterns To develop a territorially
may affect transport energy savings, coherent socio-cultural
relationships between gasoline infrastructure. To
consumption and urban development optimize social care and
characteristics were investigated in health infrastructure.
49 U.S. metropolitan areas. The results To improve the cultural,
suggest that cities of medium size with sport and entertainment
clusters of high residential densities infrastructure. To create
are associated with lower levels of per planning and management
capita gasoline consumption systems for regulating the
(WHO ... 2004). Optimization process can city's engineering
be performed using multi-criteria infrastructure
decision aiding methods (Turskis development. To renovate
2008; Zavadskas et al. 2008a, b). old and develop new
 water supply and the sewage
An object-oriented model for the removal systems. To improve
integrated planning and management of the electricity supply
land resources and utilities-related system.
services facilitates the thorough
evaluation of scenarios involving
land use, and delivery of utilities
such as water, gas, telephone and
electricity. It therefore provides a
mechanism for generating alternative
urban development patterns in search of
lower utility costs (Marquez and Salim
2007).

Pollution minimization

Building waste recycling as aggregates Continuing social education
is a modern approach for preventing and engineering of social
environmental pollution through both behaviour and attitudes
reducing the stocks of waste and regarding environmental
decreasing the use of natural issues through mass media,
aggregates. The main preliminary campaigns and legal means.
conditions for developing the recycling
activity are: streams of building
waste, experience in recycling,
technical and environmental
standardization, appropriate
technologies, etc.

(Hadjieva-Zaharieva et al. 2003).
Cities are complex ecosystems and,
all over the world, they are
increasingly confronted with
environmental problems such as air
pollution, acid rain, smog, water
shortages and garbage disposal (Savage
and Kong 1993). To adress, for
instance, water shortage problem,
information system based on Web
services can be used (Dzemydien? el al.
2008a, b).

... ...

Urban regeneration

It was explored the role of dwelling Housing improvements and
conditions and neighbourhood urban regeneration will
characteristics in explaining the help reduce the health gap
frequently observed association between housing tenures,
between housing tenure and health. and more generally to
Te health measures were limiting reduce health inequalities.
long-standing illness, self-assessed
health, recent symptoms, and anxiety All urban regeneration
and depression features of the dwelling contributes to sustainable
and its surroundings help to explain development through the
observed associations between tenure recycling of derelict
and health in the UK, and that housing land and buildings,
and area problems may be particularly reducing the demand for
important. Housing improvements and peripheral development
urban regeneration may help reduce the and facilitating the
health gap between housing tenures, and development of more compact
more generally to reduce inequalities cities.
in health (Macintyre et al. 2003).

All urban regeneration contributes
to sustainable development through the
recycling of derelict land and
buildings, reducing demand for
peripheral development and facilitating
the development of more compact cities
(Couch and Dennemann 2000).

Increasing education level and skilled
workforce

A skilled workforce is a critical To create a system for
feature of competitive cities. Modern life-long-learning and the
economies increasingly depend upon acquiring of higher
knowledge intensive sectors, even qualification. To broaden
within manufacturing (Competitive ... the society's knowledge
2004). Therefore, forecasting the level in the field of
labour force demand and supply is Information Technologies
needed (Dubra and Gulbe 2008). Recent and to strive to make the
literature documents the important role Internet accessible for
of education in economic development everyone. To improve the
emphasizing its contribution to education and training
economic growth, individual and social infrastructure.
development (Tansel 2002). The Human
Capital theory predicts a "trickling
down" effect of education expansion on
earnings equalization. Trough education
expansion and employment legislation,
the state can reduce earnings
differentials. By decomposing the
determinants of earnings differentials
into their "attribute-quantity" and
"attribute-price" effects,
education expansion for females has
reduced gender earnings differentials
(Chung 1996).

Modern service industries

Modern service industries are highly Sponsoring modern high-tech
concentrated in the central areas industries in Vilnius will
of regional capitals. These are have a disproportionate
often the major growth industries effect on the
in advanced economies. Modern competitiveness of the
high-tech industries such as ICT entire region.
and the life sciences are also
concentrated in the centres of regional
capitals. So regional capitals tend to
be privileged in the new growth
industries or are the places where
they would typically like to be
located (Competitive ... 2004).