Why are UK pump prices so high?
Delannoy, Aurelie
Oil prices are once again at the centre of the economic debate, as
the recent surge in crude oil prices following the nuclear stand-off
with Iran raises concerns for the fragile economic recovery in Europe
and in the US. The monthly average price of Brent crude oil rose by
about 16 per cent between January and March this year, reaching $125 per
barrel. In 2011, Barrell, Delannoy and Holland reviewed the
macroeconomic effects of a rise in oil prices, describing direct effects
on consumer prices, indirect effects through production costs, and
second-round effects resulting from weaker aggregate demand and nominal
wage bargaining. Currently, in the UK, fuel prices have reached new
record levels, with diesel prices at 1.48 [pounds sterling] per litre in
the last week of April 2012, up 7 pence per litre since the beginning of
the year (DECC, 2012a). Still higher prices are on their way as part of
the government's fiscal plans for 2012-13, with fuel duty rising by
3.02 pence per litre from August 2012, a 2 1/2 per cent price increase
based on March pump prices.
Meanwhile, whilst learning about market imbalances and their effect
on oil prices brings little relief to a driver filling his petrol tank,
many often wonder about the factors leading to such record-breaking pump
prices. Simple questions such as, "Why do I pay so much?" or
"Who does it benefit?" are common, but the existing literature
rarely gives answers with clarity. Studies often focus on shocks to the
international oil markets, such as supply and demand conditions, to
explain high crude oil and product prices (Kaufmann, 2010; Kilian,
2008).
In this note, we attempt to answer these questions, shedding light
on key drivers of pump prices, and providing a clear decomposition of
the fuel price paid by consumers. We proceed in two stages. In the first
section, we examine the pass-through effects of crude oil prices into
pump prices paid by consumers. Blair and Mixon (2011) analysed this
pass-through on US gasoline prices and estimated that each $1 change per
barrel of crude oil resulted in a change in gasoline pump prices per
gallon of between 2.52 [cents] to 2.65 [cents], depending on their
geographical location. Following a similar approach, we estimate the
relationship between crude oil and pump prices in the UK, using monthly
data for Brent crude oil and post-tax diesel pump prices. Estimation
results show that a further $10 rise in the price of a barrel of Brent
crude this quarter would result in an eventual 4.9 pence per litre rise
in diesel pump prices.
In the subsequent section, we consider the impact of factors other
than crude oil on pump prices. Through a full decomposition of pump
prices, we show that fluctuations in the various costs and profit
margins of the production and distribution chain have a relatively small
impact on pump prices. High pump prices in the UK, as in the rest of
Europe, primarily reflect tax revenues of the two governments involved,
i.e. the government in the oil producing country and the one in the fuel
consuming country. The UK is both producer and consumer, allowing the
government to impose taxes on both the production and consumption of
many petroleum products domestically consumed. For example, the UK
government received, on average, almost three-quarters of the revenues
from diesel sold at the pump in 2011. The final section summarises our
findings and concludes.
The pass-through of crude oil prices to pump prices
High and ever-increasing crude oil prices are often blamed for high
pump prices, especially following events such as political tensions in
the Middle East, supply and demand imbalances and changes in OPEC policies and views. The world's major consuming nations, including
the UK, have been considering the release of strategic petroleum stocks
to minimise the risks of further crude price rises, although there has
not been any decision taken yet. Figure 1 shows the price of Brent crude
oil on the open market and diesel pump prices in the UK since 2002. The
similarity in the behaviour of both time series is striking, with
post-tax pump prices strongly positively correlated with crude oil
prices (r = 0.97).
Yet a careful analysis of this relationship shows that variations
in crude oil prices do not fully explain the variations in pump prices.
We use data for crude oil and diesel pump prices in the UK and estimate
a simple error correction relationship between the two series. Diesel
prices are regressed against crude oil prices using monthly average
observations for Brent spot prices and diesel pump prices inclusive of taxes in the UK in US dollars per litre. We use the average monthly
GBP-USD exchange rates to convert sterling pump prices into US dollars.
The sample spans the period April 2002 to April 2012, so that it
includes the sharp price rise seen on the oil markets in the past
decade. The long-run relationship between the two series is confirmed by
an augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test on residuals. We estimated the
following error correction specification, based on three lags:
[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII]
[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]
where D is the monthly average diesel pump price in the UK, B is
the monthly average Brent spot price, and [c.sub.i] are the estimated
parameters. In order to obtain a more parsimonious model, we then tested
down and removed lags that were not significantly different from zero at
the 5 per cent level. Table 1 reports the estimation results.
The estimation provides us with the long-run relationship between
crude oil prices and diesel pump prices in the UK. Results show that a 1
per cent rise in the Brent crude oil price is associated with a 0.4 per
cent rise in the diesel pump price in the long run. Thus, a $10 per
barrel rise in the price of Brent between the first and second quarter
this year would be associated with a 4.9 pence rise in diesel pump
prices in the long run, assuming the bilateral exchange rate remains
unchanged at 0.614 [pounds sterling] per US dollar. However, they would
rise by only 1/4 per cent (3.1 pence) immediately after the rise in
Brent crude oil.
In addition, the estimation also shows that variations in the Brent
crude oil price explain only about 56 per cent of diesel price movements
at the pumps. In the following section, we attempt to explain the rest
of the variation through a decomposition of diesel pump prices,
distinguishing between taxes, costs and profit margins that occur
between the extraction of crude oil and the sale of fuels at petrol
stations. We estimate their relative share on consumer prices for diesel
between 2003 and 2011, and look at the fluctuations of each component in
order to account for the 60 pence pump price rise over the period.
Finally, based on what we learned from this decomposition, we consider
the recent developments on the oil market and their effect on pump
prices.
From the ground to the pumps: understanding fuel prices
Organisation of the oil market
To enable a full decomposition of pump prices, one needs to explore
the production and distribution chain for finished oil products in order
to identify the most significant price determinants, from taxes to costs
and profit margins at each stage of the oil market, and their respective
impact on pump prices.
The production and distribution chain of finished oil products is
divided into four main stages, consisting of (1) the production of crude
oil, which includes exploration activities and is often referred as the
'E&P' sector, (2) the refining of crude oil into usable
products, (3) the marketing and distribution of refined products, and
(4) the consumption of fuels. Figure 2 presents this organisation and
some of the main components.
[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]
Based on this organisation of the oil market, and with available
data, one can estimate the shares of pump prices that are attributable
to each stage of the production and distribution chain. Wherever
possible, we use UK data for the breakdown of UK pump prices. However,
due to some limitations, we compute freight rates and gross refining
margins using European series as proxy. We use Brent crude oil spot
prices as our starting point, and then work down the production chain.
Producing crude oil
The first stage of this pump price decomposition consists of
analysing the production stage of the crude oil. The free-on-board
(fob)(1) price of crude oil at the point of export determines the oil
companies' gross revenues and the taxes imposed by the host
government. It provides an insight into the distribution of profits
between the oil producer and the government of the producing country.
The tax system currently in place for oil and gas exploration and
production from the UK and the UK Continental Shelf is composed of a
petroleum revenue tax (PRT), a ring-fenced corporation tax (RFCT), and a
supplementary charge (SC). (2)
The PRT is a field-based petroleum profit tax applied to all fields
given development consent before March 1993, whilst it does not apply to
newer fields. The current rate is set at 50 per cent and is payable on
the company's net revenues after deductions for developing and
operating expenditures. It is also deductible as an expense for RFCT and
SC computations.
The RFCT applies to the profits of all UK registered companies and
not just oil corporations. The ring-fence applies to oil exploration and
production activities to prevent the offsetting of profits with losses
in other activities, such as refining. It is currently set at 30 per
cent of companies' profits. The series of reductions to the main
rates of corporation tax since 2008 have not been applied to the RFCT
for upstream oil activities.
Finally, the SC, first introduced in 2002, is levied on profits
along with the RFCT. Its rate was initially set at 10 per cent and then
raised to 20 per cent in 2006 and to 32 per cent in 2011.
Altogether, this means that fields with consent obtained before
March 1993 had a marginal corporate tax rate of 81 per cent of their
taxable income in 2011, up from 70 per cent in 2003. Newer fields face a
marginal tax rate of 62 per cent since they are exempt from PRT. When
considering existing fiscal systems in other parts of the world, we
observe that fiscal pressure varies greatly depending on the
industry's potential in terms of costs, discoveries and/or
political stability. Johnston (2008) shows that government tax share
varies from less than 30 per cent in Ireland to over 95 per cent in
countries such as Libya, Venezuela and Iran. Lower tax shares are
usually found in countries where oil prospects are weakest and/or where
costs are highest. Notably, North America has some major sources of oil
sand and shale, which are more expensive to extract and to refine and,
in the North Sea, oil activities remain complex and expensive. Thus, in
oil regions with uncertain and/ or challenging geological prospects,
governments may need to provide greater incentives to attract foreign
investments. One such route could be the tax regime imposed on the oil
extraction industry. Meanwhile, nations with the greatest oil prospects,
which include most OPEC producers, enjoy much better prospects in terms
of oil discoveries and costs, thus attracting fierce competition in
foreign investments and allowing governments to extract a bigger rent.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides data on
finding and lifting costs up to 2009. (3) For the purpose of the 2011
pump price breakdown, we simply assumed that these costs have remained
stable in nominal terms since 2009. In 2009, the European lifting costs
reached $8.96 per barrel, whilst the average finding costs represented
$42.32 per barrel. This is in comparison to $5.75 and $6.99,
respectively, for crude streams originating from the Middle East. These
costs have risen significantly since 2003, but a faster rate of increase
in crude oil prices led to a cost share actually falling from 57 to 46
per cent of the selling price.
[FIGURE 3 OMITTED]
As a result, companies' net revenues (the revenue before tax
and after cost deductions) increased sharply from $12 to $60 per barrel
over the period, but the share of companies' profits in net
revenues actually fell from 30 to 19 per cent, due to the increase in
the supplementary charge rate. Nevertheless, company profit margins per
barrel of Brent crude oil rose threefold between 2003 and 2011.
Altogether, these data suggest that the high crude oil prices seen
over the past decade reflect rising production costs, notably finding
costs, as companies increasingly face problems of limited access to
cheap and lower risk oil investment opportunities. But this should not
distract from the role of global supply and demand. Tight demand and
supply balances on the oil market in recent years, notably due to strong
demand pressures from emerging economies, have also allowed producer
profit margins and government tax revenues to rise.
Refining crude oil into diesel
The estimation of the share of refining costs and profits in diesel
pump prices between 2003 and 2011 is not a straightforward computation.
Available data on refining operating costs and margins are normally
available per unit of input, i.e. per barrel of crude oil processed,
rather than per unit of output. This is because refining a barrel of
crude oil results in the production of various refined products
including diesel, petrol, liquefied petroleum gas
(LPG), jet fuel and other residues such as lubricant and asphalt.
The economics of refining has two key elements: the crude oil input cost
and a gross refining margin.
The input cost relates to the cost of the crude oil required to
produce one litre of diesel and the freight costs to transport the crude
oil to the refinery. About 80 per cent of the crude oil refined in UK
refineries originates from the North Sea, notably from the UK and Norway
(UKPIA, 2011). We therefore estimate crude oil costs using the Brent fob
spot price at Sullom Voe. Due to some limitations, we assume freight
rates between Sullom Voe and the British Refineries to be equivalent to
the tanker rates (4) between Sullom Voe and Rotterdam refineries.
The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil at Sullom Voe almost
quadrupled between 2003 and 2011, and reached $125 per barrel (159
litres) in March 2012. Assuming that about 20 per cent of a barrel of
Brent crude oil yields diesel once refined (BP, 2011), refiners needed
about 43.6 pence of crude oil to produce a litre of diesel in 2011. This
is about a third of the price realised at the petrol pump. Meanwhile,
freight costs to carry the crude oil between Sullom Voe and the
refineries remained negligible, representing about 0.3 per cent of
diesel pump prices (less than half a penny per litre). The sum of both
crude oil and freight costs represents the cif (5) cost of crude oil to
produce 1 litre of diesel. This figure reached 44 pence per litre of
diesel in 2011.
The second element of the economics of refining is the gross
refining margin, i.e. the sum of the total refining operating costs and
profits. In other words, it is the difference between the value of a
litre of diesel at the refinery (the ex-refinery price) and the cif cost
in crude oil necessary to produce it. The gross refining margin between
2003 and 2011 averaged $4.45 per barrel of crude oil processed, but it
was down to $2.86 per barrel in 2011. On a litre of diesel produced, the
gross refining margin reached 7.2 pence in 2011, 1.1 pence in refining
costs and 6.1 pence in profit margin. (6)
Figure 4 illustrates the variations between 2003 and 2011 of the
refining costs and margins that compose the ex-refinery price. The rise
in the ex-refinery price reflects rises in both costs in crude oil and
refiners' profit margins. Meanwhile, although freight and operating
costs fluctuated over time, they remained negligible as a share of the
final price and their effect on the resulting pump prices may be
ignored. Moreover, whilst in 2011 profit margins stood about 2.5 times
their level in 2003, their share of the ex-refinery price and pump price
fell significantly due to a significantly faster increase in crude oil
costs.
[FIGURE 4 OMITTED]
Marketing and distribution (M&D)
The M&D gross margin is the sum of costs and profit margins
occurring between the oil refineries and retail pumps, and includes the
distribution of finished oil products, storage, marketing and operating
retail outlets. The UK Petroleum Industry Association (UKPIA) refers to
this as the retail/ex-refinery spread: the difference between the
ex-refinery petrol price on the open market and the pre-tax pump price.
Data from the UKPIA suggest that M&D gross margins reached 5.8
pence per litre of diesel in 2011, which is about 4 per cent of pump
prices. These margins have shown some volatility over the period
2003-11, but have remained very thin and therefore had little overall
effect on pump prices. Looking at diesel prices between 2003 and 2011,
M&D gross margins accounted for only a 1/4 per cent of the 60 pence
increase at the pump.
The consumption stage: pump prices, consumption taxes and currency
fluctuations
British consumption taxes on petroleum products represent a
significant share of pump prices. Existing data series on diesel prices
include prices per litre, exclusive (pre-tax) and inclusive (post-tax)
of domestic taxes. Pre-tax prices represent the total costs and margins
included in the price of a litre of diesel, whilst the difference
between pre- and post-tax prices is the total domestic tax applied by
the government on the consumption of petroleum products. In the UK, this
is composed of two elements: a fuel duty, i.e. a fixed excise tax on
fuel consumption, and the standard value-added tax (VAT) rate. In 2011,
consumption taxes averaged about 59 per cent of the 1.38 [pounds
sterling] per litre of diesel at the pump, the highest tax share in
Europe. Looking at the 2003-11 period, consumption tax revenues rose by
23.5 pence per litre (40 per cent) as pre-tax prices per litre of diesel
almost tripled. The government temporarily reduced the VAT rate from
17.5 to 15 per cent between December 2008 and April 2010 and raised it
to 20 per cent in 2011. However, the consumption tax share on pump
prices actually fell dramatically from about 74 to 59 per cent between
2003 and 2011.
[FIGURE 5 OMITTED]
In addition to consumption taxes, currency fluctuations also have a
major impact on pump prices. Crude oil and refined product prices on the
international market are denominated in US dollars. Currency movements
therefore have implications for pump prices irrespective of global oil
price developments. The weakening of the US dollar between 2003 and 2008
offset some of the increase in the dollar price of oil faced by the UK.
From mid-2008, the sharp depreciation of sterling has had the opposite
effect. To estimate the gain (loss) this has generated on pre-tax diesel
prices, one should consider a situation where the GBP/USD exchange rate
had remained stable at its 2003 level through to 2011 ($1=0.614 [pounds
sterling]), and compare the hypothetical pretax diesel price obtained
with the actual price observed (figure 6). Without the appreciation of
sterling, the 2008 pre-tax diesel price would have been about 15 per
cent dearer than the actual pre-tax price, holding all other factors
constant, saving 18 pence per litre at the pump. However, weaker
sterling since 2009 added 2 pence to the 2011 pump prices compared to
the counterfactual of a constant exchange rate since 2003.
[FIGURE 6 OMITTED]
Conclusions
The decomposition of the pump price of diesel clearly illustrates
that the main beneficiary of high pump prices is the UK government. On
the one hand, the significant contribution of taxes on final prices is a
widely known characteristic of the oil market. Headlines typically focus
on consumption taxes at the expense of taxes on the production side of
the market. While these certainly contribute a significant amount to
pump prices, ignoring taxes paid by oil corporations operating in the UK
underestimates the economic rent received by the government from a litre
of diesel sold at a UK petrol station. On the other hand, the very small
contribution of producers' and refiners' profit margins, which
together represented less than 8 per cent of pump prices in 2011 (figure
7), gives a clearer dimension than the regular headlines announcing
profit statistics of some major international oil companies, such as BP,
Shell and Exxon Mobil (The Economist, 2011). This conclusion is also
valid for most oil consuming nations and crude streams. Fuel prices over
time reflect the conditions of the oil market and its fundamentals. In
recent years, this is notably the increase in upstream production costs
between 2003 and 2011. Even so, the final price consumers face is
largely a story of taxes. We show in figure 7 that about two thirds of
the diesel pump price increase seen between 2003 and 2011 returned to
the government in tax revenue. Comparing the decomposition of diesel
pump prices in 2003 and 2011 (table 2), we can see that the additional
60 pence per litre of diesel paid by consumers represents a rise of 23.4
pence in government tax revenue due to the increasing VAT rate and fuel
duty. The government also generated a further 3.5 pence in tax revenue
from the increase of the supplementary charge rate on extraction and
production from 10 to 32 per cent. Meanwhile, producers' and
refiners' profit margins accounted for only 6.7 pence per litre of
the pump price increase.
Naturally, consumers cannot expect much support from the oil
producers and refiners in order to relieve the inflationary pressures
caused by fuel prices, as their pricing strategy reflects market
conditions and profit maximisation. Thus the government is the only
agent who might have an incentive and the capacity to lower or minimise
any increases in pump prices in a significant manner. Yet, the solution
is not that simple, as oil prices and fuel consumption are also key
elements in wider issues such as government revenues for policymaking,
as well as energy and environmental issues. Last year, fuel duty alone
contributed 1.8 per cent of GDP (OBR, 2012), and was the fifth biggest
contributor to government tax revenue after income taxes, national
insurance contributions, VAT receipts and corporation tax receipts.
Assuming diesel pre-tax prices and consumption constant, a 3.02 pence
rise in fuel duty this year would increase government's duty
receipts by 5.2 per cent, whilst also adding 0.6 pence per litre of
diesel in VAT. This will put a further strain on low-income households,
as fuel expenditure already represent 8.5 per cent of their total
expenditure (DECC, 2011). However, one must also consider other policies
that focus on the low-carbon economy, notably by raising energy
efficiency and promoting alternative sources of energy to fossil fuels,
both encouraging a reduction in fossil fuel consumption, and therefore
reducing the burden of fuel expenditure, and thus taxes, on consumers.
These include the 'Green Deal' and 'Energy Company
Obligation', both introduced in the Energy Act 2011, which aim at
enhancing energy efficiency, further reducing carbon emissions and
addressing fuel poverty.
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NOTES
(1) Thee 'free-on-board' price is the price paid at the
export point, excluding freight, insurance and other costs incurring
between the export to import points.
(2) Royalty payments were abolished at the end of 2002 and so do
not affect the sample period covered in this study
(3) Annual data for lifting costs and 3-year average for finding
COSTS.
(4) US dollars per metric tonne of crude oil transported.
(5) Cost, Insurance & Freight.
(6) Within this gross refining margin, it is possible to
distinguish between the refinery's operating costs and profits.
Using monthly data on the refinery gross margin on Brent in Northwestern
European refineries, along with annual estimates of refining operating
costs (Purvin and Gertz, 2008), we estimate how much out of total costs
and profits are transferred specifically into the pump price of a litre
of diesel in the UK. We compute the refining costs based on the
assumption that the ratio between the value of a litre of diesel and the
value of all refined products obtained from a barrel of Brent (its
growth product worth or GPW) is comparable to the ratio between the
costs of producing a litre of diesel and the total refining costs on a
barrel of Brent. The GPW is estimated as the sum of the cif cost for a
barrel of crude oil and the total gross refining margins on this barrel;
the profit margin is the difference between the gross refining margin
and the operating costs of producing a litre of diesel. We find that the
value of a finished litre of diesel (the ex-refinery price) represented
about 0.7 per cent of the total GPW. Applying this share to the total
operating costs, we obtain an estimate for the cost of producing a litre
of diesel, i.e. about I. I pence in 2011, leaving 6.1 pence as profit
margin.
Aurelie Delannoy, NIESR, e-mail:
[email protected]. The author
would like to thank Phil Davis, Dawn Holland, Simon Kirby and Iana
Liadze for their comments.
doi: 10.1177/002795011222000110
Table 1. Error correction estimates
Long-run coefficients
Diesel 1.00
Brent [c.sub.3] -0.394 *** (0.026)
Constant [c.sub.1] 0.203 *** (0.055)
Short-run coefficients
Speed of adjustment [c.sub.2] -0.218 *** (0.057)
Change in diesel
previous periods [c.sub.4,3] 0.130 ** (0.064)
Change in Brent
previous period [c.sub.5,0] 0.247 * (0.028)
[c.sub.5,1] 0.099 *** (0.029)
No. of observations 117
R-squared 0.56
Log likelihood 253.24
Source: Datastream series for Brent Spot (free on board) in USD
per barrel, and UK diesel prices incl. tax in GBP per kilolitre.
Notes: Monthly averages from April 2002 to March 2012. Final
equation passed serial correlation LM test. Standard errors are
presented in parentheses. *** denotes significance at the 1 per
cent level, ** denotes significance at the 5 per cent level, * denotes
significance at the 10 per cent level.
Table 2. Decomposition of the UK diesel pump price in
2003 and 2011 *
Pence per litre of diesel 2003 2011 Var.
03-11
Consumption: Pump price 77.9 138.2 60.3
VAT 11.6 23.0 11.4
Fuel duty 46.1 58.2 12.0
M&D: Marketing & Distribution 5.6 5.8 0.1
Refining: Refining operating costs 0.8 1.1 0.4
Refining profit margin 2.4 6.1 3.6
Transportation: Freight 0.3 0.4 0.1
Production: Production costs 6.4 20.1 13.7
Petroleum revenue tax 2.4 11.8 9.4
Ring-fenced corporate tax 0.7 3.5 2.8
Supplementary charge 0.2 3.8 3.5
Producers' profit margin 1.4 4.5 3.1
* Details on the calculations are available from the author.
Figure 7. Composition of the UK diesel pump price, 2011
Prod. & Ref. profit margins 7.6%
Prod. & Ref. costs 15.4%
Mark. & Distrib. 4.2%
Taxes 72.5%
Freight 0.3%
Source: Author's calculations.
Note: Table made from pie chart.