Employment and prices in a simple macroeconomy.
Holt, Charles A.
1. Introduction
The standard macroeconomic models used in undergraduate courses
(Keynesian cross, "ISLM") are presented at a high level of
aggregation that is a common source of complaint. However, attempts to
build in microfoundations, for example, overlapping generations or
infinite-lived representative agents, require a level of mathematical
analysis that is beyond the abilities and interests of most economics
majors. The upshot of this is that intermediate macroeconomics courses
are often unpopular with both students and faculty in comparison to more
institutionally based courses such as those in finance or money and
banking. This paper presents a simple classroom experiment in which the
students themselves are the optimizing agents and the outcomes can be
related to standard macroeconomic issues of full employment, price
determination, and so on.
The exercise is appropriate for classes or discussion sections that
range in size from 6 to 40 students and can be completed, with
discussion, in about an hour. This is a relatively complex classroom
experiment and would be difficult to run in a large lecture class. The
discussion sections often tied to such classes would provide a good
setting, and the variety of outcomes across discussion sections might be
useful in a subsequent lecture. Depending on the level of discussion,
the exercise can be used in conjunction with introductory and
intermediate macroeconomics courses, with more emphasis on dynamics and
the role of money in intermediate classes. In an introductory class,
this exercise can be used while the students are reading a chapter on
employment and the labor market and can also serve as a review of supply
and demand, the circular flow, and basic macroeconomic concepts such as
money, the real wage, and so on. The procedures are described in more
detail in section 2, and some suggestions for structuring the class
discussion are provided in section 3. Section 4 contains a guide to some
of the related research in experimental economics.
2. Procedures
The basic idea is to set up a closed economy with production,
exchange, and fiat money. Students are given the role of either a worker
or a firm. There are exactly twice as many workers as firms to
facilitate the calculation of optimal allocations, as explained below.
Workers are endowed in each period with leisure, which they can consume
or sell to firms, who use the labor to produce goods, which in turn are
either consumed by that firm or sold to workers. Firms need to acquire
labor before producing output, so the labor market opens before the
goods market. The money that workers receive as wages is then used to
purchase goods, as depicted in a standard circular flow chart.
This classroom experiment is obviously somewhat more complex than
most, given the need to keep track of money, goods, and trades in two
markets. In particular, you will probably not have time in a single
class to run enough periods to obtain stable wages and prices (leaving
time for discussion), at least not in a typical 50-minute discussion
section. The exercise does go faster and more smoothly if you have done
it previously. Another time-saving hint is to limit the numbers of firms
and workers, say, to three firms and six workers. (If necessary, you can
allow groups of two or three students to constitute each firm or
worker.) Before you try this the first time, we recommend that you
practice by reading the instructions out loud and explaining the
procedures to a teaching assistant.
The economy is quite simple, but record keeping can become
complicated; therefore, we use playing cards to keep track of money and
goods. The red cards (Hearts or Diamonds) are units of currency, and the
black cards (Clubs or Spades) represent units of real goods and
services. In particular, each firm starts off the first period with 26
red cards that can be used to purchase labor from workers (so you need
one deck of cards per firm). Workers are endowed with three black cards
in each period, which they can either consume or sell in exchange for
fiat money. The markets operate in sequence: firms post wages, workers
sell labor and/or retain leisure, firms produce output, firms post
prices, workers purchase output, and final consumption determines
"earnings" for the period before a new labor/leisure-time
endowment is given to workers for the next period.
After workers sell some or all of their black cards, there is a
phase in which workers consume their remaining time as leisure and firms
engage in production. First, consider the production and its effect on
the demand for labor. The marginal product of each of the first two
units of labor input is 6, the marginal product of the third and fourth
units of labor is 3, and the marginal product of additional units of
labor input is 1. This production is implemented: the first black card
(labor unit) purchased by a firm becomes six black card output units (we
add five to the original); the second black card purchased also becomes
six black cards. If a third black card is purchased, we add two black
cards and similarly for the fourth black card purchased.(1) Nothing is
added to the fifth and higher numbers of black cards, so the marginal
product of these input units is 1 (one unit of input yields one unit of
output). This marginal product schedule for a firm is shown as the dark
line in Figure 1.(2) In a static setting, a firm will demand a unit of
labor if its marginal product exceeds the real wage, so the marginal
product schedule represents the firm's demand for labor, with real
wage on the vertical axis. (This analysis would be modified slightly if
you decided to introduce a dynamic element associated with the
probability of stopping the experiment, as described below.)
Next consider the supply of labor. Note that selling a unit of
labor implies consuming two units of leisure and so on. There is a
diminishing marginal value of leisure, which is implemented as follows.
If a worker sells two black cards (labor) and keeps only one (leisure),
the one card kept is tripled; that is, we add two black cards to the one
kept. If the worker keeps two black cards (leisure), the first card is
tripled, but the second card is only doubled. Finally, the third black
card kept is left unchanged. Therefore, the marginal value of leisure is
3 for the first unit, 2 for the second unit, and 1 for the third unit.
The supply of labor is obtained by taking these units in reverse order:
The first black card sold by the worker has an opportunity cost of 1
(black card), the second an opportunity cost of 2, and the third an
opportunity cost of 3. Because there are two workers per firm, we have
plotted the supply function of two workers combined in Figure 1. At a
real wage of 1.5, for example, each worker would be willing to sell only
one unit because the second unit has a leisure value of 2. Note that the
supply function overlaps the firm's labor demand function at a
quantity of four labor units, which is the efficient level of employment
(two per worker).
At the efficient level of employment, each firm purchases four
units of labor (two from each worker) and produces 18 black cards (6 + 6
+ 3 + 3). Similarly, each worker consumes one unit of leisure and
therefore consumes three black cards, which is the leisure value of the
endowment unit that is not sold. Therefore, at the end of the period,
the total consumption of black cards by each one-firm/two-worker group
would be 18 + 3 + 3 = 24 if the efficient outcome in Figure 1 is
reached. Whether the resulting outcome is efficient depends on what
happens in the labor and goods markets, which we describe next.
The labor market begins when firms decide on wage offers, that is,
the (integer) number of red cards they are willing to trade for a black
card.(3) Once all firms have written their wage offers on their decision
sheets, post them on the blackboard next to the firm's desk. Then
choose one of the workers at random to enter the labor market first.(4)
This worker generally goes to the high-wage firm and asks to sell one or
more black cards. All transactions must be at the posted wage, and no
haggling is allowed. The firm can limit the quantity of labor purchased
at the posted wage, in which case the worker can approach another firm.
When this worker is finished, the next worker (e.g., the one sitting to
the right of the one chosen previously) gets to purchase. After several
workers have finished, it becomes apparent that some of the firms have
stopped buying labor, and the remaining workers must go to the firms
with lower wages. The labor market closes when all workers have finished
or when all firms have stopped buying.
Then production and leisure consumption occurs. The instructor can
go to the desk of each worker and firm and place additional black cards
on top of those already there, as described above. After production, the
firms typically have large stocks of black cards. Firms then choose
their prices (the integer number of red cards required to purchase a
black card), which are recorded on the blackboard after all firms have
recorded their decisions on paper. Then a worker is selected at random,
as before, to begin making purchases. Firms can limit sales quantities
before stocking out because they consume what they do not sell, but all
sales must be at the posted price. The cards are actually exchanged
after each transaction, facilitating record keeping. When the first
worker selected has finished purchasing units, the next worker in the
numerical sequence gets to purchase. This continues until all workers
have made purchases or until all firms have stopped selling.
At the end of the period, workers and firms count up their black
cards; this determines their "earnings": Each card is worth
$1. It is possible to pay a percentage of earnings in cash, perhaps to
maintain interest and ensure careful thinking, but our experience is
that these markets are sufficiently interesting and competitive to make
payment unnecessary. After (hypothetical) earnings are recorded, you
should take away all black cards, except for the three-card endowment
for each worker. Red cards stay where they are, so the money supply is
fixed.
In short (50-minute) discussion sections for introductory
macroeconomics, we typically repeat this procedure for about three
periods and then stop without warning. In an intermediate class, we
prefer to announce in advance that there will be three periods, after
which we begin using the throw of a die to determine whether to stop;
for example, the throw of a six stops the experiment. The random
stopping process is described in the final two sentences of the text of
the instructions; these can be deleted if not needed. Although time
pressure will probably not force you to stop prematurely if the die is
used, a random stopping rule can generate an interesting discussion of
dynamics and time preference in an intermediate class.(5) In particular,
because red cards are worthless at the end of the experiment, a random
stopping rule serves as a kind of discount factor, making money today
more valuable than the promise to deliver money in the future. In
particular, this cost of holding money is borne largely by firms that
hold money from sales of goods to purchase labor in the next period.
Basically, this cost shifts the demand for labor down, without affecting
the optimal employment in this example, as can be seen by considering
the firm's optimal sales decision: A firm that sells a unit of
output gets P dollars, which can be used to buy W/P units of labor in
the next period at a marginal product denoted by MP. If the probability
of termination is less than 1, say, 1 - r, the value of this marginal
product is only (1 - r)MP, which should be equated to the real wage,
W/P. Therefore, the marginal product curve in Figure 1 has been shifted
down by a factor of (1 - 1/6) = 5/6 to obtain the dashed-line demand for
labor curve for a firm.(6) As noted above, the downward adjustment of
the marginal product curve can be skipped in an introductory course.
To summarize the procedures: i) Decide on the number of firms (from
two to five) and the number of workers (from 4 to 10) and copy a set of
instructions for each (with the final two sentences included only if a
six-sided die will be used to determine the final period). (ii) Separate
the red cards and the black cards for a number of decks that equals the
number of firms, so that you have a red card endowment of 26 for each
firm. (iii) Seat the firms next to a blackboard and pass out the initial
card endowments for firms and workers. (iv) Read instructions. (v) Open
the labor market with firms choosing wages, which are posted on the
blackboard. (vi) Choose a worker at random to begin selling labor and go
through workers in sequence. (vii) Production and consumption of leisure
are implemented by adding black cards to those possessed by firms and
workers. (viii) Open the goods market by letting firms choose prices,
which are posted on the board. (ix) Choose a worker at random to begin
shopping; the rest follow in sequence.(x) Workers and firms record final
accumulations of black cards (consumption) before these are returned and
new black card endowments are given to each worker at the start of the
next period.
3. Discussion
It is best to break off for discussion when about 15 minutes remain
in the class period, even if this means stopping before the randomly
determined time.(7) The first topic on everyone's mind is to figure
out which people earned the most money or who has the highest cumulated
number of end-of-period black cards. This should be done in a hurry, but
you can begin with several high-earnings workers and ask them to explain
their labor supply decisions, These decisions should somehow depend on
the wage; for example, "the wage of six reds per black was good
enough for me to want to sell two black cards." If you encounter an
answer like this, you can ask whether the person would have sold two
black cards per period if the wage were 6 and the price were 6.
Obviously, the second black card should not be sold in this case because
selling one black (labor) card allows the worker to buy only one
(commodity) black card back when the wage equals the price. The second
black card that a worker sells is worth two black cards if it is
consumed, so it should not be sold when the wage equals the price. This
naturally leads to a discussion of the real wage, which can be turned to
questions such as, "How many labor units would you sell if wage
were 8 and the price were 2, that is, if the real wage were 47"
These types of questions allow you to construct the labor supply curve
for a single worker or for two workers together, as shown in Figure 1.
A similar line of questioning can determine that the optimal labor
purchases by firms should depend not only on the wage but also on the
price at which goods can be sold. Then questions about optimal purchases
for various wage/price combinations can be used to construct the labor
demand curve as a function of the real wage. This curve is simply the
marginal product of labor, as noted above. You will need to explain that
you are dealing with two workers and a single firm, because the number
of workers is exactly twice the number of firms.(8) The construction of
labor supply and demand curves from the payoff information associated
with the cards is a type of question that can be put on a test or exam,
and it might help the unmotivated to mention this in passing.
With supply and demand covered, you can ask what the optimal amount
of employment should be, that is, the amount that maximizes the sum of
the black cards produced by firms and the black cards created through
workers' consumption of leisure. The optimal labor quantity, 4, is
determined by the overlap of the supply and demand curves in Figure 1.
The actual real wages for a six-period classroom experiment at the
University of Virginia are shown in the upper-right quadrant of Figure
2, just to the right of the labor supply and demand graph.(9) Real wages
are generally above the competitive range indicated by the horizontal
dashed lines, especially in the final periods. This can explain
firms' reluctance to purchase all labor units offered by workers,
as discussed below.(10)
The next question should request an explanation of the connection
between the prevailing real wage and the optimal (black-card-maximizing)
level of employment. If questioned, the students can figure out that
each two-worker/one-firm combination can obtain at most 24 black cards.
This leads to a discussion of how many black cards were actually earned
in each period and how this compares with the optimum. These
observations can be summarized with an efficiency measure, that is, the
percentage of the maximum earnings that are achieved in the market
economy.
If employment is below the optimal level, you should ask workers
whether they hesitated to sell labor or whether firms did not want to
buy more labor at the posted wages. In our experiment, firms were
restricting labor purchases to some extent, perhaps because the real
wage was too high. This naturally leads to a discussion of (involuntary)
unemployment and how the official statistics are measured. You could ask
firms why they did not lower wages or increase prices. The answer is
often that the risk of lowering the wage is that workers will go to the
other firms.
It is interesting to speculate about the effects of an increase in
the money supply. This increase could be accomplished by designating a
student as the "government" who has a right to
"print" new red cards to buy, for example, labor for foreign
military adventures. This new demand in the labor market should raise
money wages, raise employment, reduce production, and then raise prices.
Such an intervention might even shock an economy out of a low-employment
situation.
The remainder of this section describes some more advanced
discussion topics that are more appropriate for an intermediate class in
which a random stopping rule was used (even if the actual stopping point
was dictated by time constraints). Note that firms will not want to hold
onto excess red cards at the end of the period because the die throw
might render these cards worthless. The cost of holding cash in excess
of what will be needed to purchase labor in the next period is analogous to an interest rate. In a steady state with no frictions, firms will
hold just enough cash to purchase labor needed in the next period, and
consumers will hold no cash at the end of the period because they will
be able to obtain the cash they need by selling labor in the next
period. In such a frictionless steady state, the value of wage
expenditures (the wage, W, times the labor input per firm, L) will just
equal the money supply divided by the number of firms, M. This
equilibrium condition for the parameters of the experiment determines
wage as a function of M and L: W = M/L.(11) This relationship is graphed
in the lower-left quadrant of Figure 2, with the wage being measured
downward from the center horizontal axis. With an optimal labor input of
4, the predicted wage is shown by the dashed line in the lower part of
Figure 2.(12) The actual sequence of money wages (averaged across firms)
for the classroom experiment is shown in the lower-right part of the
figure. Notice that the wages are approaching the prediction but that
there is a persistent bias; that is, W [less than] M/L or, equivalently,
WL [less than] M. This inequality reflects the fact that the actual
transaction velocity is less than 1 when cash balances exceed the amount
absolutely needed to cover wage payments, perhaps because of
precautionary motives and frictions due to mismatches between workers
and firms.
An increase in the money supply per firm, M, would shift the curved
line in the lower-left quadrant downward, and the money wage rate would
increase as a result. With no frictions, money is neutral in this setup.
Of course, there are frictions in the classroom economy and presumably in larger macroeconomies. Therefore, it would be interesting to increase
the money supply to observe the adjustment patterns.
In conclusion, it is possible to set up a simple, closed economy in
the classroom with labor, consumption, and fiat money. There is normally
some significant underemployment, that is, employment below optimal
levels. However, the efficiency loss for the economy as a whole might be
small because misallocations at the margin are relatively costless
compared with the high marginal products of inframarginal labor input
units. This simple framework is flexible and can be adapted for
additional topics, such as the effects of fiscal and monetary policy.
4. Further Reading
We are not aware of any classroom experiments that create a closed
macroeconomy. There are, however, a number of related research
experiments in which subjects were paid their earnings in cash under
controlled conditions. Closest to our setup is that of Hey and di Cagno
(1996), in which firms had to purchase labor before producing goods. As
predicted by Clower (1965), this two-stage nature of the production
process produces significant underemployment, unlike the setup in Lian
and Plott (1998), in which generally efficient outcomes resulted when
the labor and goods markets ran simultaneously. As for the role of
money, there are two main approaches. Commodity money is used in the
experiments reported in Brown (1996) and Duffy and Ochs (1996). In
contrast, fiat money is used in McCabe's (1989) experiment, and its
value becomes unstable because of the finite horizon. Evans, Honkapohja,
and Marimon (1995) provide an interesting solution to the end-point
valuation of fiat money; it is redeemed as commodities at the price
level predicted by a subset of subjects. Our decision to use fiat money
instead of commodity money is based on the importance of realism in
classroom exercises. We have also tried price-based redemption schemes
in some previous classroom macro experiments.
Appendix
Overview
We are going to set up a simple economy. You will be a worker if
your ID number above begins with "W," and you will be a firm
if your ID begins with "E" Each worker now gets three black
playing cards (Clubs or Spades) and each firm gets 26 red cards (Hearts
or Diamonds). Black cards represent goods and services, and red cards
represent money. Firms use red card money to purchase labor from
workers. The black cards (labor) purchased by firms can be used to
produce more black cards (goods), which can be either consumed by the
firm or sold to workers for red cards. (There is only one good, so
consumption by the firm is analogous to a farmer consuming food produced
on the farm.) Regardless of whether you are a worker or a firm, your
goal is to accumulate as many black cards as you can. The red cards are
necessary, however, in allowing firms to purchase labor and in allowing
workers to purchase goods.
Production
The first black card purchased by a firm produces six black cards
(we add five to the original). Similarly, we add four black cards to the
firm's second black card, three to the third black card, two to the
fourth, one to the fifth, and none to the sixth or any additional black
card. If the firm purchased seven black cards, for example, these would
be laid out and augmented by (5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 + 0 + 0) = 15 cards, as
I will demonstrate by laying seven black cards in a row and varying
numbers of cards to each one. Just as firms have a diminishing marginal
product, workers have a diminishing marginal value of leisure (black
cards kept). As 1 will demonstrate now, we will add two black cards to
the first one that a worker keeps, one black card to the second one that
a worker keeps, and no black cards to the third one.
Labor Market
Each market period begins with all workers receiving an endowment
of three new black cards, which can be kept or sold to firms. Firms and
workers begin with whatever money (red cards) they have left over from
the previous period (26 red cards for firms in the first period). Each
firm chooses a wage (integer number of red cards offered in exchange for
a single black card), which is written in column I of the record sheet
below. These wages are then posted on the blackboard, and workers are
chosen in random order and allowed to choose one or more firms with
which to sell black cards for reds at the posted wage. Firms can limit
the number of black cards purchased, but once a firm stops buying labor
it cannot buy from any of the other workers. The process stops when all
workers have had a chance to sell labor. When workers sell a unit of
labor or firms buy a unit, the cards should be exchanged on the spot,
and the number of black cards bought or sold is entered in column 2 of
the record sheet. Workers can also keep track of the wage(s) received in
column 1.
Goods' Market
We then come to each person's desk and add black cards to
those purchased by firms (five added to the first black card, four to
the second, and so on). Similarly, we add black cards to those kept by
workers (two to the first, one to the second). Then each firm chooses a
price (an integer number of red cards demanded in exchange for each
black card). This price is entered in column 3 of the record sheet, and
when all firms have done this, these prices are written on the
blackboard. Again we choose workers at random and let them make
purchases from one or more firms. The cards are exchanged as the
purchases are made, and the number of black cards bought or sold is
entered in column 4 of the record sheet at the price(s) recorded in
column 1. Firms must sell at least one black card at the posted price
but can stop selling at any time. This process stops when all workers
have had a chance to make purchases.
Earnings
At the end of a period, each firm and worker should add up the
total number of black cards on hand, to be consumed, and enter this
number in column 5 of the record sheet. This number of black cards
determines your earnings in dollars for the period. Earnings in dollars
will be added up at the end and will be discussed, but these earnings
are hypothetical and will not be paid. Black cards are then collected,
and each worker is given a new endowment of three black cards for the
next period. Any red cards that you have are kept and can be used in the
next period. Red cards (money) will have no value when the process ends;
that is, you cannot eat your money. There will be a number of trading
periods, after which we will stop for discussion. Firms should now move
to the front of the room and select their wages for the first period.
(Optional: The final period will be determined randomly with the throw
of a six-sided die after the goods market. We will do three periods for
sure before starting to throw the die.)
[TABULAR DATA OMITTED]
Summary of Firm's Production
Five black cards are added to the first black card used by a firm
in production, four black cards are added to the second black card used,
three black cards are added to the third black card used, two black
cards are added to the fourth black card used, one black card is added
to the fifth black card used, and no black cards are added to the sixth
or higher black cards used in production.
Summary of Worker's Leisure Consumption
Two black cards are added to the first black card kept and consumed
as leisure by a worker, one black card is added to the second black card
kept and consumed as leisure, and no black cards are added to the third
black card kept and consumed as leisure.
We wish to thank Michelle Kezar, Susan Laury, and Reinhard Selten for suggestions and comments. This research was funded in part by the
National Science Foundation grant SBR-9617784.
1 The instructions in the Appendix imply a marginal product curve
that has more steps, with declining marginal products of 6, 5, 4, 3, 2,
and 1. For example, the first black card produces six units of output,
so we add five new cards to the original, for a marginal product of 6.
This more continuous decline in marginal product does not change the
theoretical predictions and is a little easier to explain.
2 As a take-home exercise, you can ask students to graph total,
marginal, and average products of labor.
3 The restriction to integer wages and prices does not seem to
cause problems with market adjustments, and it is natural, given the
indivisible nature of the playing cards.
4 Sometimes we just point at someone spontaneously. This is quick
and relatively fair if you jump around the class in making the initial
pick. If you prefer to be more methodical, give each worker a number, in
sequence from one to the number of workers, and use the throw of a die
to determine which worker starts. For example. with 10 workers, you
could use a 10-sided die (sold at most game stores) to select the first
worker. If the throw were nine, for example, then worker 9 is first,
worker 10 second, worker I third, and so on.
5 If a six-sided die is being used, then there may be an
"irrational" tendency for subjects to expect the process to
stop after six throws of the die, even after the die has already been
thrown (without stopping) several times. This bias, which was pointed
out to us by Reinhard Selten, could be more of a problem for a research
experiment than for a classroom exercise.
6 A technical derivation of the demand for labor curve when the
probability of continuing is less than 1 is something that can be
discussed in an intermediate macro class. Selling one more unit in
period t will reduce the firm's consumption by I in that period but
will enable the firm to purchase [P.sub.t]/[W.sub.t+1] units of labor in
the next period; that is, [L.sub.t+1] = [x.sub.t][P.sub.t]/[W.sub.t+1],
where [x.sub.i] denotes sales quantity in period t. Now let r denote the
probability of termination and f(L) the production function, so the
relevant part of the firm's dynamic objective function is
-[x.sub.t] + (1 - r) f([P.sub.t][x.sub.i]/[W.sub.t+1]), which is
maximized with respect to [x.sub.t] when -1 + (1 - r)
([P.sub.t]/[W.sub.t+1]) f[prime] (L) = 0, where f[prime] (L) denotes the
marginal product of labor. In other words, the sales increase until the
loss of one unit of consumption equals the probability of continuing, 1
- r, times the amount of labor that can be purchased,
[P.sub.t]/[W.sub.t+1], times the marginal product of labor. The time
subscripts can be dropped in a steady state, and the above first-order
condition can be rewritten as W/P = (1 - r) f[prime] (L); i.e., the
marginal product of labor curve shifts down by a factor that is the
probability of continuation. In our setup, the probability of
continuation is 5/6, explaining the location of the dashed labor demand
line in Figure 1 relative to the marginal product line.
7 We had no problem with stopping in this manner "to save time
for discussion." An alternative would be to compensate anyone
holding red cards by converting these to black cards at a rate
determined by the average commodity price for the (unannounced) final
period. This should not be announced in advance because it might affect
wage and price decisions and will certainly generate distracting questions. This reimbursement action will be viewed as being fain and we
think it is a reasonable compromise, although this type of deception should not be used in a research experiment.
8 Depending on the level of the class and what comes up in
discussion, you might go on to explain that there is a slight downward
shift in the marginal product curve to get the labor demand in a steady
state when a random stopping rule is used.
9 There were two firms and four workers, with one of the
"workers" consisting of a two-person team. The termination
probability actually used was 8/10, not 5/6, which is reflected in the
position of the labor demand curve.
10 We encountered a few classes in which the real wage is at or
below 2, especially in early periods.
11 The velocity of money is 1 because each red card circulates
through the labor and goods markets exactly once when excess cash is not
held. Therefore, WL = PY = M when output Y, money M, and labor L are
measured in units per firm. The PY = M condition is essentially the
quantity theory of money when velocity is 1.
12 In this experiment, we used a fixed money supply of 30 instead
of 26.
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