Summary BEA staff paper: cyclical adjustment of the federal budget and federal debt: detailed methodology and estimates.

Holloway, Thomas M.

This paper describes the models that BEA uses to estimate the cyclically adjusted Federal budget and inflation-induced changes in the cyclically adjusted budget. The quarterly data for the variables in the models and the regression equations underlying the coefficients in the models are presented. The paper also discusses the cyclical adjustment of Federal debt and shows some results. Finally, the paper presents some simplified estimation procedures that approximate the results of the complete models, but have much more limited data requirements.

This paper, which is No. 40 in the BEA Staff Paper series, may be ordered from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402. The telephone number is (202) 783-3238. The stock number is 003-010-00126-7; price, $7.50. A supplement to the staff aper provides revision and updates of the quarterly data from the first quarter of 1981 to the second quarter of 1984. The supplement is available upon request from the Government Division (BE-57), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230.