Business situation: advance estimates for the third quarter of 2004.

Larkins, Daniel

ECONOMIC growth stepped up somewhat in the third quarter of 2004, and inflation moderated, according to the "advance" estimates of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs).

* Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.7 percent after increasing 3.3 percent in the second quarter (table 1 and chart 1). (1)

* The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent after increasing 3.5 percent.

The insurance transactions associated with the hurricanes that struck portions of the southern and eastern United States in August and September did not directly affect third-quarter GDP, reflecting the new treatment of insurance services that BEA introduced as part of its 2003 comprehensive revision of the NIPAs. (2) Estimates of other, indirect effects of the hurricanes are not available because the effects may occur with a lag, and they generally cannot be disentangled from the regular source data that BEA uses to prepare its GDP estimates. However, as described later in this article (in the section on personal income), some income flows were affected by the hurricanes, and estimates of those effects have been prepared. (3)

The step-up in GDP growth mainly reflected an acceleration in consumer spending and a slowdown in imports. (4)

* Consumer spending increased 4.6 percent and contributed 3.23 percentage points to GDP growth in the third quarter after contributing 1.10 percentage points to growth in the second quarter. Purchases of durable goods increased after a small decrease, and purchases of nondurable goods increased after little change.

* Imports, which are subtracted in the calculation of GDP, increased 7.7 percent and subtracted 1.13 percentage points from third-quarter GDP growth after a 12.6-percent increase had subtracted 1.77 percentage points from second-quarter growth. The slowdown in imports mainly reflected downturns in imports of nonautomotive consumer and capital goods that were partly offset by an upturn in petroleum imports. (Exports increased 5.1 percent and contributed 0.51 percentage point to GDP growth in the third quarter after contributing 0.70 percentage point in the second.)

The contributions of consumer spending and imports were partly offset by a downturn in inventory investment and by a slowdown in residential investment.

* Inventory investment subtracted 0.48 percentage point from GDP growth as inventory stocks increased less in the third quarter ($48.1 billion) than in the second quarter ($61.1 billion); in the second quarter, inventory investment had contributed 0.78 percentage point to GDP growth.

* Residential investment increased 3.1 percent and contributed 0.18 percentage point to GDP growth after contributing 0.86 percentage point; the smaller contribution in the third quarter mainly reflected a downturn in brokers' commissions on house sales.

The advance estimates for the third quarter also show the following:

* Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 4.2 percent after increasing 2.5 percent (table 2).

* Nonresidential fixed investment increased 11.7 percent and contributed 1.15 percentage points to GDP growth after contributing 1.21 percentage points. A slowdown in structures was partly offset by a modest step-up in equipment and software.

* Government spending increased 1.4 percent and contributed 0.26 percentage point to GDP growth after contributing 0.41 percentage point. Downturns in state and local spending and in Federal nondefense spending were partly offset by a step-up in spending on national defense.

* Gross domestic purchases increased 4.1 percent after increasing 4.2 percent.

* The production of goods stepped up in the third quarter. In contrast, services increased the same as in the second quarter, and structures increased much less than in the second quarter.

* Motor vehicle output turned up sharply. Excluding motor vehicles, real GDP increased 3.5 percent after increasing 4.0 percent.

* Final sales of computers increased modestly after two quarters of little change.

* The personal saving rate decreased from 1.2 percent to 0.4 percent. (5)

Prices

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter after increasing 3.5 percent in the second (table 3). The deceleration partly reflected a sharp deceleration in energy prices and a moderate deceleration in food prices. Excluding the prices of energy and food, the price index increased 1.5 percent after increasing 2.5 percent (chart 2).

Prices of goods and services purchased by consumers increased 1.1 percent after increasing 3.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, prices paid by consumers increased 0.7 percent after increasing 1.7 percent. In addition to these comprehensive price indexes for consumer purchases, BEA produces supplemental indexes for "market-based" personal consumption expenditures (PCE) that exclude most imputed expenditures (such as services furnished without payment by financial intermediaries). (6) The market-based PCE price index increased 1.4 percent in the third quarter after increasing 3.7 percent in the second. Excluding food and energy, the market-based index increased 1.0 percent after increasing 2.1 percent.

Prices of private nonresidential fixed investment increased 1.0 percent after increasing 1.7 percent. Prices of equipment and software decreased after little change, and prices of structures increased somewhat more than in the second quarter.

Prices paid by government increased 3.3 percent after increasing 4.3 percent. Prices paid by both the Federal Government and state and local governments contributed to the slowdown.

The GDP price index, which measures the prices paid for goods and services produced in the United States, increased 1.3 percent in the third quarter, 0.5 percentage point less than the price index for gross domestic purchases. The smaller increase in the GDP price index reflected a smaller increase in export prices (which are included in the GDP price index) than in import prices (which are included in the price index for gross domestic purchases).

Personal Income

Real disposable personal income (DPI) increased 1.4 percent in the third quarter after increasing 2.4 percent in the second (table 4 and chart 3). The slowdown was more than accounted for by a slowdown in current-dollar DPI (which is defined as personal income less personal current taxes); the implicit price deflator for PCE (which is used to deflate DPI) increased less than in the second quarter.

Personal income, which is measured only in current dollars, increased $71.4 billion (or 3.0 percent) after increasing $138.4 billion (or 6.0 percent). The slowdown was mainly traceable to proprietors' income and rental income, but current transfer receipts and wage and salary disbursements also contributed.

Rental income and proprietors' income were reduced by the property damage caused by the hurricanes that struck portions of the southern and eastern United States in the third quarter, and current transfer receipts were increased by insurance settlements related to the hurricanes. (7)

Proprietors' income slowed sharply. A large second-quarter increase in the income of nonfarm proprietors had mainly reflected a jump in commissions earned by real estate brokers; commissions turned down in the third quarter, and the income of nonfarm proprietors was reduced $1.7 billion (annual rate) by the loss of uninsured business property in the hurricanes. The income of farm proprietors fell sharply in the third quarter after a modest increase in the second; the decrease mainly reflected a drop in prices received by farmers.

Rental income of persons decreased $21.8 billion in the third quarter after little change in the second. Most of the decrease reflected the loss of uninsured residential property as a result of the hurricanes.

Current transfer receipts increased $13.5 billion after increasing $21.4 billion. A decrease in government social benefits reflected lower Medicaid payments by states. An increase in "other current transfer receipts" reflected $15.5 billion (annual rate) in net insurance settlements for hurricane-related damages to motor vehicles and other consumer durable goods.

Wage and salary disbursements increased $57.8 billion after increasing $63.7 billion. Disbursements by private services-producing industries and by government slowed.

Table 1. Real Gross Domestic Product and Components

[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

 Change from preceding
 quarter (percent)

 2003 2004

 IV I II III

Gross domestic product (GDP) 4.2 4.5 3.3 3.7

Personal consumption expenditures 3.6 4.1 1.6 4.6
 Durable goods 3.9 2.2 -0.3 16.8
 Nondurable goods 5.1 6.7 0.1 3.9
 Services 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.7
Gross private domestic investment 13.9 12.3 19.0 5.2
 Fixed investment 10.5 4.5 13.9 8.5
 Nonresidential 11.0 4.2 12.5 11.7
 Structures 7.9 -7.6 6.9 1.4
 Equipment and software 12.0 8.0 14.2 14.9
 Residential 9.6 5.0 16.5 3.1
 Change in private inventories
Net exports of goods and services
 Exports 17.5 7.3 7.3 5.1
 Goods 16.1 9.1 6.0 7.8
 Services 20.6 3.4 10.2 -0.8
 Imports 17.1 10.6 12.6 7.7
 Goods 18.4 12.7 13.0 7.5
 Services 11.1 1.2 10.6 8.8
Government consumption expenditures
 and gross investment 1.6 2.5 2.2 1.4
 Federal 4.8 7.1 2.7 4.6
 National defense 11.6 10.6 1.9 9.3
 Nondefense -7.5 0.2 4.4 -4.7
 State and local -0.1 0.0 1.9 -0.5

 Contribution to percent change
 in real GDP (percentage points)

 2003 2004

 IV I II III

Gross domestic product (GDP) 4.2 4.5 3.3 3.7

Personal consumption expenditures 2.50 2.90 1.10 3.23
 Durable goods 0.33 0.19 -0.02 1.33
 Nondurable goods 1.01 1.33 0.03 0.79
 Services 1.15 1.39 1.10 1.10
Gross private domestic investment 2.04 1.86 2.85 0.85
 Fixed investment 1.57 0.69 2.07 1.33
 Nonresidential 1.07 0.42 1.21 1.15
 Structures 0.18 -0.19 0.16 0.03
 Equipment and software 0.89 0.61 1.05 1.12
 Residential 0.50 0.27 0.86 0.18
 Change in private inventories 0.47 1.17 0.78 -0.48
Net exports of goods and services -0.66 -0.76 -1.06 -0.62
 Exports 1.55 0.70 0.70 0.51
 Goods 1.00 0.60 0.41 0.53
 Services 0.56 0.10 0.30 -0.02
 Imports -2.22 -1.46 -1.77 -1.13
 Goods -1.96 -1.43 -1.52 -0.92
 Services -0.26 -0.03 -0.25 -0.21
Government consumption expenditures
 and gross investment 0.31 0.48 0.41 0.26
 Federal 0.33 0.48 0.18 0.31
 National defense 0.50 0.47 0.09 0.42
 Nondefense -0.18 0.00 0.10 -0.11
 State and local -0.02 0.00 0.23 -0.05

 Share of
 current-
 dollar GDP
 (percent)
 2004

 III

Gross domestic product (GDP) 100.0

Personal consumption expenditures 70.1
 Durable goods 8.5
 Nondurable goods 20.2
 Services 41.3
Gross private domestic investment 16.6
 Fixed investment 16.2
 Nonresidential 10.5
 Structures 2.4
 Equipment and software 8.1
 Residential 5.8
 Change in private inventories 0.4
Net exports of goods and services -5.3
 Exports 10.1
 Goods 7.0
 Services 3.0
 Imports 15.4
 Goods 12.9
 Services 2.5
Government consumption expenditures
 and gross investment 18.6
 Federal 6.9
 National defense 4.7
 Nondefense 2.2
 State and local 11.7

NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 1.1.1, and contributions to
percent change are from NIPA table 1.1.2. Shares are from NIPA table
1.1.10.

Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product by Type of Product

[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

 Change from preceding
 quarter
 (percent)

 2003 2004

 IV I II III
 Gross domestic
 product (GDP) 4.2 4.5 3.3 3.7
 Final sales of domestic
 product 3.7 3.3 2.5 4.2
 Change in private
 inventories
 Goods 5.8 8.2 2.5 7.3
 Services 3.1 3.0 2.3 2.3
 Structures 5.4 0.7 12.7 0.5
Addenda:
 Motor vehicle output 2.9 8.8 -15.2 10.0
 GDP excluding motor
 vehicle output 4.2 4.3 4.0 3.5
 Final sales of computers 29.0 0.1 0.1 6.4
 GDP excluding final sales
 of computers 4.0 4.5 3.3 3.7

 Contribution to percent
 change in real GDP
 (percentage points)

 2003 2004

 IV I II III
 Gross domestic
 product (GDP) 4.20 4.50 3.30 3.70
 Final sales of domestic
 product 3.71 3.32 2.52 4.19
 Change in private
 inventories 0.47 1.17 0.78 -0.48
 Goods 1.90 2.65 0.82 2.35
 Services 1.77 1.76 1.30 1.30
 Structures 0.52 0.07 1.19 0.06
Addenda:
 Motor vehicle output 0.11 0.30 -0.58 0.33
 GDP excluding motor
 vehicle output 4.08 4.18 3.88 3.38
 Final sales of computers 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.06
 GDP excluding final sales
 of computers 3.93 4.48 3.30 3.65

 Share of
 current-
 dollar
 GDP
 (percent)

 2004

 III
 Gross domestic
 product (GDP) 100.0
 Final sales of domestic
 product 99.6
 Change in private
 inventories 0.4
 Goods 32.6
 Services 57.2
 Structures 10.1
Addenda:
 Motor vehicle output 3.4
 GDP excluding motor
 vehicle output 96.6
 Final sales of computers 0.9
 GDP excluding final sales
 of computers 99.1

NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 1.2.1, and contributions
to percent change are from NIPA table 1.2.2. Shares are calculated
from NIPA table 1.2.5.

Table 3. Price Indexes

[Percent change at annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted index
numbers (2000=100)]

 Change from preceding
 quarter (percent)

 2003 2004

 IV I II III

Gross domestic purchases 1.4 3.4 3.5 -1.8

Personal consumption expenditures 1.2 3.3 3.1 1.1
 Durable goods -4.3 0.0 -0.1 -3.1
 Nondurable goods 0.5 5.3 6.6 0.9
 Services 2.7 3.0 2.1 2.1
Gross private domestic investment 2.7 2.1 4.4 3.1
 Fixed investment 2.8 2.0 4.3 3.1
 Nonresidential 1.2 0.3 1.7 1.0
 Structures 1.4 4.8 7.6 9.8
 Equipment and software 1.2 -1.1 0.1 -1.4
 Residential 5.8 5.4 9.1 6.9
 Change in private inventories
Government consumption 1.0 5.1 4.3 3.3
 expenditures and gross
 investment
 Federal 1.0 6.6 3.0 1.6
 National defense 1.3 5.7 3.5 1.8
 Nondefense 0.3 8.3 1.9 1.2
 State and local 1.0 4.2 5.2 4.3
Addenda:
Gross domestic purchases:
 Food 4.1 2.8 4.2 2.2
 Energy goods and services -7.1 27.0 24.9 6.4
 Excluding food and energy 1.5 2.5 2.5 1.5
Personal consumptions expenditures:
 Food 3.9 2.6 3.9 2.6
 Energy goods and services -8.5 26.7 26.5 3.9
 Excluding food and energy 1.3 2.1 1.7 0.7
 "Market-based" PCE 0.8 3.2 3.7 1.4
 Excluding food and energy 0.8 1.8 2.1 1.0
Gross domestic product 1.6 2.8 3.2 1.3

 Contribution to percent change in
 gross domestic purchases prices
 (percentage points)

 2003 2004

 IV I II III

Gross domestic purchases 1.4 3.4 3.5 1.8

Personal consumption expenditures 0.82 2.19 2.08 0.74
 Durable goods -0.37 0.00 -0.01 -0.26
 Nondurable goods 0.11 1.00 1.25 0.18
 Services 1.08 1.20 0.84 0.82
Gross private domestic investment 0.40 0.32 0.68 0.48
 Fixed investment 0.40 0.30 0.64 0.47
 Nonresidential 0.12 0.03 0.17 0.10
 Structures 0.03 0.10 0.17 0.21
 Equipment and software 0.09 -0.08 0.01 -0.11
 Residential 0.29 0.28 0.47 0.37
 Change in private inventories -0.01 0.02 0.04 0.01
Government consumption
 expenditures and gross
 investment 0.18 0.89 0.77 0.58
 Federal 0.06 0.42 0.20 0.10
 National defense 0.06 0.25 0.15 0.08
 Nondefense 0.01 0.18 0.04 0.02
 State and local 0.11 0.47 0.57 0.48
Addenda:
Gross domestic purchases:
 Food 0.38 0.27 0.40 0.21
 Energy goods and services -0.29 0.98 0.94 0.27
 Excluding food and energy 1.31 2.16 2.19 1.33
Personal consumptions expenditures:
 Food
 Energy goods and services
 Excluding food and energy
 "Market-based" PCE
 Excluding food and energy
Gross domestic Product

PCE Personal consumption expenditures

None. Most percent changes are from NIPA table 1.6.7; percent changes
for personal consumption expenditures on energy goods and services and
for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy are
calculated from index numbers in NIPA table 2.3.4. Contributions to
percent change are from NIPA table 1.6.8.

Table 4. Personal Income and Its Disposition

[Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

 Change
 from
 prece-
 ding
 Level quarter

 2004 2003

 III IV

 Compensation of employees, received 6,641.9 82.0
 Wage and salary disbursements 5,360.7 60.3
 Private industries 4,432.8 56.4
 Goods-producing industries 1,038.0 19.8
 Manufacturing 680.7 14.2
 Services-producing industries 3,394.8 36.7
 Trade, transportation, and utilities 890.0 11.3
 Other services-producing industries 2,504.9 25.5
 Government 927.9 3.9
 Supplements to wages and salaries 1,281.1 21.7
 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj 903.2 12.7
 Farm 10.7 -0.1
 Nonfarm 892.5 12.8
 Rental income of persons with CCAdj 150.8 18.3
 Personal income receipts on assets 1,366.4 11.4
 Personal interest income 945.0 9.2
 Personal dividend income 421.3 2.2
 Personal current transfer receipts 1,413.9 4.5
 Less: Contributions for government social
 insurance 821.3 8.3
Equals: Personal income 9,654.8 120.7
Less: Personal current taxes 1,047.4 67.7
Equals: Disposable personal income 8,607.4 52.9
Less: Personal outlays 8,572.5 101.6
Equals: Personal saving 35.0 -48.7
Addenda: Special factors in personal income:
 In government wages and salaries:
 Federal pay raise 5.5 0.0
 Federal civilian retroactive pay 0.0 0.0
 Reservists' pay 7.8 -1.0
 In supplements to wages and salaries:
 Employer contributions for social insurance 7.2 0.0
 In contributions for social insurance:
 Changes in premium for supplementary
 medical insurance 3.2 0.0
 In nonfarm proprietors' income:
 Hurricane-related destruction of uninsured
 business property -1.7 0.0
 In rental income of persons:
 Hurricane-related destruction of uninsured
 residential property -16.3 0.0
 In personal current transfer receipts:
 Social security retroactive payments 0.0 2.5
 Cost-of-living adjustments in Federal
 transfer programs 11.9 0.5
 Earned-income tax credit 2.7 0.0
 Hurricane-related net insurance settlements
 (excluding owner-occupied housing) 15.5 0.0
 In personal current taxes:
 Federal tax law changes -3.2 0.0
 Refunds, settlements, and other -8.8 0.0

 Change from preceding
 quarter

 2004

 I II III

 Compensation of employees, received 81.2 81.5 72.5
 Wage and salary disbursements 50.3 63.7 57.8
 Private industries 37.9 57.6 53.4
 Goods-producing industries -0.6 9.0 10.0
 Manufacturing -10.2 4.1 6.7
 Services-producing industries 44.6 48.6 43.3
 Trade, transportation, and utilities 0.4 7.2 10.4
 Other services-producing industries 44.1 41.4 33.0
 Government 12.3 6.2 4.4
 Supplements to wages and salaries 31.0 17.7 14.6
 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj 7.4 29.3 1.8
 Farm -6.8 1.0 -8.2
 Nonfarm 14.2 28.3 10.0
 Rental income of persons with CCAdj 5.7 -0.2 -21.8
 Personal income receipts on assets 11.3 15.2 14.1
 Personal interest income 4.2 5.5 3.3
 Personal dividend income 7.1 9.7 10.7
 Personal current transfer receipts 28.3 21.4 13.5
 Less: Contributions for government social
 insurance 18.9 8.9 8.5
Equals: Personal income 115.0 138.4 71.4
Less: Personal current taxes -2.8 22.4 18.4
Equals: Disposable personal income 117.9 116.0 53.0
Less: Personal outlays 142.2 97.1 123.8
Equals: Personal saving -24.3 18.9 -70.7
Addenda: Special factors in personal income:
 In government wages and salaries:
 Federal pay raise 5.2 0.3 0.0
 Federal civilian retroactive pay 0.3 1.2 -1.5
 Reservists' pay 0.9 -0.9 -0.3
 In supplements to wages and salaries:
 Employer contributions for social insurance 7.2 0.0 0.0
 In contributions for social insurance:
 Changes in premium for supplementary
 medical insurance 3.2 0.0 0.0
 In nonfarm proprietors' income:
 Hurricane-related destruction of uninsured
 business property 0.0 0.0 -1.7
 In rental income of persons:
 Hurricane-related destruction of uninsured
 residential property 0.0 0.0 -16.3
 In personal current transfer receipts:
 Social security retroactive payments -2.5 0.0 0.0
 Cost-of-living adjustments in Federal
 transfer programs 11.4 0.0 0.0
 Earned-income tax credit 2.7 0.0 0.0
 Hurricane-related net insurance settlements
 (excluding owner-occupied housing) 0.0 0.0 15.5
 In personal current taxes:
 Federal tax law changes 0.0 -3.2 0.0
 Refunds, settlements, and other 0.0 -8.8 0.0

NOTE: Dollar levels are from NIPA tables 2.1 and 2.2B.

IVA Inventory valuation adjustment

CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment

(1.) "Real" estimates are in chained (2000) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures.

Quarterly estimates in the NIPAs are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized.

(2.) Brent R. Mouhon and Eugene P. Seskin, "Preview of the 2003 Comprehensive Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts: Changes in Definitions and Classifications," SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 83 (June 2003): 17-34; and Baoline Chen and Dennis J. Fixler, "Measuring the Services of Property-Casualty Insurance in the NIPAs: Changes in Concepts and Methods," SURVEY 83 (October 2003): 10-26.

(3.) For an explanation of how the NIPAs are affected by disasters, see <www.bea.gov/bea/faq/national/disasters.htm> on BEA's Web site.

(4.) In this article, "consumer spending" is shorthand for the NIPA series "personal consumption expenditures," "inventory investment" is shorthand for "change in private inventories," and "government spending" is shorthand for "government consumption expenditures and gross investment."

(5.) The personal saving rate is measured as personal saving as a percentage of current-dollar disposable personal income. Estimates of the national saving rates (measured as gross saving and net saving as a percentage of gross national income) will be available at the end of November along with the "preliminary" estimates of the NIPAs for the third quarter.

(6.) More information on the market-based measures is available on BEA's Web site at <www.bea.gov/bea/faq/national/markbsdPCE.htm>.

(7.) The effects of the hurricanes on corporate profits and other income-side components of the NIPAs are available on BEA's Web site at <www.bea.gov/bea/dn/hurricane.htm>.

Third-Quarter 2004 Advance NIPA Estimates: Source Data and Assumptions

The "advance" estimates for the third quarter are based on the following major source data; as more and better data become available, the estimates will be revised. (The number of months for which data were available is shown in parentheses.)

Personal consumption expenditures: Sales of retail stores (3), unit auto and truck sales (3), and consumers' shares of auto and truck sales (3);

Nonresidential fixed investment: Unit auto and truck sales (3), construction put in place (2), manufacturers' shipments of machinery and equipment other than aircraft (3), shipments of civilian aircraft (2), and exports and imports of machinery and equipment (2);

Residential investment: Construction put in place (2), single-family housing starts (3), and sales of new and existing houses (3);

Change in private inventories: Trade and nondurable manufacturing inventories (2), durable manufacturing inventories (3), and unit auto and truck inventories (3);

Net exports of goods and services: Exports and imports of goods and services (2);

Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: Federal outlays (3), state and local construction put in place (2), and state and local employment (3);

GDP prices: Consumer price indexes (3), producer price indexes (3), U.S. import and export price indexes (3), and values and quantities of petroleum imports (2).

BEA made assumptions for source data that were not available. Table A shows the assumptions for key series; a more comprehensive list is available on BEA's Web site at <www.bea.gov/bea/dn/home/gdp.htm>.

Table A. Summary of Major Source Data and Assumptions for Advance
Estimates, 2004:III

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

 2004

 April May June

Private fixed investment:
 Nonresidential structures:
 Value of new total private
 construction put in place
 less residential (including
 improvements) 221.6 220.9 220.4
 Equipment and software:
 Manufacturers' shipments of
 complete aircraft 24.6 31.3 25.7
 Residential structures:
 Value of new residential
 construction put in place:
 Single family 360.0 369.0 370.4
 Multifamily 37.8 38.5 39.3
Change in private inventories:
 Change in inventories for
 nondurable manufacturing 6.3 13.7 21.9
 Change in inventories for
 merchant wholesale and retail
 industries other than motor
 vehicles and equipment 34.9 72.0 58.6
Net exports: (2)
 Exports of goods:
 US exports of goods, inter-
 national-transactions-
 accounts basis 791.4 824.3 776.1
 Excluding gold 787.9 820.6 772.8
 Imports of goods:
 US imports of goods, inter-
 national-transactions-
 accounts basis 1,427.2 1,442.0 1,485.5
 Excluding gold 1,423.4 1,439.2 1,482.3
 Net exports of goods -635.9 -617.7 -709.4
 Excluding gold -635.5 -618.6 -709.4
Government:
 State and local:
 Structures:
 Value of new construction
 put in place 221.1 219.2 220.5

 2004

 July August September (1)

Private fixed investment:
 Nonresidential structures:
 Value of new total private
 construction put in place
 less residential (including
 improvements) 225.3 227.0 226.2
 Equipment and software:
 Manufacturers' shipments of
 complete aircraft 27.4 23.4 20.8
 Residential structures:
 Value of new residential
 construction put in place:
 Single family 372.8 380.7 381.2
 Multifamily 39.6 40.0 40.0
Change in private inventories:
 Change in inventories for
 nondurable manufacturing 16.6 7.2 15.6
 Change in inventories for
 merchant wholesale and retail
 industries other than motor
 vehicles and equipment 49.6 47.2 64.8
Net exports: (2)
 Exports of goods:
 US exports of goods, inter-
 national-transactions-
 accounts basis 809.5 808.7 823.4
 Excluding gold 804.9 804.8 819.8
 Imports of goods:
 US imports of goods, inter-
 national-transactions-
 accounts basis 1,466.7 1,498.0 1,513.1
 Excluding gold 1,462.3 1,494.6 1,509.5
 Net exports of goods -657.1 -689.3 -689.7
 Excluding gold -657.5 -689.8 -689.7
Government:
 State and local:
 Structures:
 Value of new construction
 put in place 222.4 220.2 221.3

(1) Assumption.

(2.) Nonmonetary gold is included in balance-of-payments-basis exports
and imports but is not used directly in the estimation of national
income and product account (NIPA) exports and imports.