Advance estimates for the second quarter of 2004.

Larkins, Daniel

ECONOMIC growth slowed in the second quarter of 2004, according to the "advance" estimates of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs).

* Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.0 percent after increasing 4.5 percent in the first quarter (table 1 and chart 1). (1)

[GRAPHIC OMITTED]

* Gross domestic purchases increased 3.0 percent after increasing 5.0 percent.

* Real disposable personal income increased 2.9 percent after increasing 3.2 percent.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.5 percent--about the same as in the first quarter. Excluding the relatively volatile prices of food and energy, the price index increased 2.4 percent, also about the same as in the first quarter.

NIPA estimates for the first quarter of 2004, along with estimates for 2001-2003, have been revised as part of the regular annual revision of the accounts. (2)

The deceleration in GDP growth in the second quarter mainly reflected a slowdown in consumer spending, but a slowdown in inventory investment also contributed.

* Consumer spending increased 1.0 percent and contributed 0.73 percentage point to GDP growth after contributing 2.90 percentage points to first-quarter growth. (3) Purchases of nondurable goods changed little after increasing, purchases of durable goods turned down, and purchases of services slowed.

* Inventory investment contributed 0.28 percentage point to GDP growth in the second quarter after contributing 1.17 percentage points in the first. Inventory stocks increased more in the second quarter than in the first ($47.5 billion, compared with $40.0 billion), but this step-up was much smaller than the step-up from the fourth quarter of 2003 to the first quarter of 2004 (from $8.6 billion to $40.0 billion).

The slowdowns in consumer spending and inventory investment were partly offset by step-ups in exports, in residential investment, and in nonresidential fixed investment.

* Exports increased 13.2 percent and contributed 1.25 percentage points to GDP growth after contributing 0.70 percentage point. All the major categories of goods and most categories of services were stronger than in the first quarter. (Imports, which are subtracted in the calculation of GDP, subtracted 1.33 percentage points from second-quarter GDP growth after subtracting 1.46 percentage points.)

* Residential investment increased 15.4 percent and contributed 0.81 percentage point to GDP growth after contributing 0.27 percentage point; the bigger contribution in the second quarter mainly reflected a step-up in brokers' commissions on house sales.

* Nonresidential fixed investment increased 8.9 percent and contributed 0.87 percentage point to GDP growth after contributing 0.42 percentage point. Structures increased after a first-quarter decrease, and equipment and software increased somewhat more than in the first quarter.

The advance estimates for the second quarter also show the following:

* Government spending increased 2.3 percent and contributed 0.43 percentage point to GDP growth after contributing 0.48 percentage point. A slowdown in spending by the Federal Government was largely offset by a pickup in spending by state and local governments.

* Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less the change in private inventories) increased 2.8 percent after increasing 3.3 percent (table 2).

* The production of goods and of services slowed, while the production of structures accelerated.

* Motor vehicle output turned down sharply. Excluding motor vehicles, real GDP increased 4.2 percent after increasing 4.3 percent.

* Final sales of computers increased somewhat after little change. Excluding these sales, real GDP increased 3.0 percent after increasing 4.5 percent.

* The personal saving rate increased from 1.2 percent to 1.7 percent. (4)

Prices

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.5 percent in the second quarter after increasing 3.4 percent in the first (table 3). Food prices accelerated, while energy prices increased almost as much as in the first quarter; excluding the prices of food and energy, the price index increased 2.4 percent after increasing 2.5 percent (chart 2). A Federal pay raise for military and civilian personnel had added about 0.3 percentage point to the first-quarter increase in prices. (5)

[GRAPHIC OMITTED]

Prices of goods and services purchased by consumers increased 3.3 percent, the same as in the first quarter; food prices stepped up, and energy prices increased about as sharply as in the first quarter. Excluding food and energy, prices paid by consumers increased 1.8 percent after increasing 2.1 percent.

Prices of private nonresidential fixed investment increased 1.5 percent after increasing 0.3 percent. Prices of structures increased 1.0 percentage point more than in the first quarter, and prices of equipment and software increased slightly after decreasing.

Prices paid by government increased 4.0 percent after increasing 5.1 percent. The slowdown was more than accounted for by prices paid by the Federal Government; in the first quarter, those prices had reflected the pay raise for civilian and military personnel. Prices paid by state and local governments increased 4.7 percent in the second quarter, 0.5 percentage point more than in the first.

The GDP price index, which measures the prices paid for goods and services produced in the United States, increased 3.2 percent, 0.3 percentage point less than the price index for gross domestic purchases. The smaller increase in the GDP price index reflected a smaller increase in export prices (which are included in the GDP price index) than in import prices (which are included in the price index for gross domestic purchases).

Personal Income

Real disposable personal income (DPI) increased 2.9 percent in the second quarter after increasing 3.2 percent in the first (chart 3 and table 4). The small slowdown was accounted for by a slowdown in current-dollar DPI (defined as personal income less personal current taxes); the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures (which is used to deflate DPI) increased at the same rate as in the first quarter.

[GRAPHIC OMITTED]

Personal income, which is measured only in current dollars, increased $149.4 billion (or 6.5 percent) after increasing $135.4 billion (5.9 percent). The step-up was mainly due to proprietors' income, but income receipts on assets also contributed.

Proprietors' income increased $30.7 billion after increasing $7.4 billion. The step-up mainly reflected a step-up in the commissions earned by real estate brokers and an upturn in incomes of farm proprietors that mainly reflected an upturn in livestock output.

Income receipts on assets increased $14.8 billion after increasing $11.3 billion. Dividend income and interest income both contributed to the small step-up.

The step-ups in proprietors' income and in income receipts on assets were partly offset by slowdowns in current transfer receipts, in rental income, and in wage and salary disbursements.

Current transfer receipts increased $21.8 billion after increasing $28.3 billion. The larger first-quarter increase had included a cost-of-living adjustment to social security payments.

Rental income increased $1.0 billion after increasing $5.7 billion. The slowdown reflected a step-up in expenses, which are subtracted in the calculation of rental income.

Wage and salary disbursements increased $69.6 billion after increasing $72.1 billion. Disbursements by government slowed; first-quarter disbursements had reflected the Federal pay raise. Disbursements by private industries increased more than in the first quarter; services-producing industries more than accounted for the step-up.

A deceleration in supplements to wages and salaries mainly reflected a slowdown in employer contributions for government social insurance. The larger first-quarter increase had reflected an increase in the maximum taxable wage base. (6)

Personal current taxes increased $19.9 billion after increasing $1.0 billion. An upturn in Federal taxes primarily reflected an upturn in nonwithheld income taxes; the estimate reflected data from the Mid-Session Review of the 2005 Budget and data on monthly collections through June 2004. A step-up in state and local taxes reflected monthly collections data from a sample of states and tax law changes in three states.

Table 1. Real Gross Domestic Product and Components

[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

 Change from preceding quarter
 (percent)

 2003 2004

 III IV I

 Gross domestic product (GDP) 7.4 4.2 4.5
Personal consumption expenditures 5.0 3.6 4.1
 Durable goods 16.5 3.9 2.2
 Nondurable goods 6.9 5.1 6.7
 Services 1.9 2.8 3.3
Gross private domestic investment 22.4 13.9 12.3
 Fixed investment 18.0 10.5 4.5
 Nonresidential 15.7 11.0 4.2
 Structures -1.3 7.9 -7.6
 Equipment and software 21.7 12.0 8.0
 Residential 22.4 9.6 5.0
 Change in private inventories
Net exports of goods and services
 Exports 11.3 17.5 7.3
 Goods 10.1 16.1 9.1
 Services 14.1 20.6 3.4
 Imports 2.8 17.1 10.6
 Goods 0.0 18.4 12.7
 Services 17.9 11.1 1.2
Government consumption expenditures and
 gross investment 0.1 1.6 2.5
 Federal -3.3 4.8 7.1
 National defense -7.7 11.6 10.6
 Nondefense 5.8 -7.5 0.2
 State and local 2.2 -0.1 0.0

 Change Contribution
 from to percent
 preceding change in
 quarter real GDP
 (percent) (percentage
 points)

 2004 2003

 II III IV

 Gross domestic product (GDP) 3.0 7.4 4.2
Personal consumption expenditures 1.0 3.58 2.50
 Durable goods -2.5 1.38 0.33
 Nondurable goods -0.1 1.38 1.01
 Services 2.3 0.83 1.15
Gross private domestic investment 12.8 3.16 2.04
 Fixed investment 11.1 2.59 1.57
 Nonresidential 8.9 1.50 1.07
 Structures 5.2 -0.03 0.18
 Equipment and software 10.0 1.53 0.89
 Residential 15.4 1.09 0.50
 Change in private inventories 0.57 0.47
Net exports of goods end services 0.64 -0.66
 Exports 13.2 1.02 1.55
 Goods 14.6 0.64 1.00
 Services 10.0 0.39 0.56
 Imports 9.3 -0.39 -2.22
 Goods 8.7 0.00 -1.96
 Services 12.7 -0.39 -0.26
Government consumption expenditures and
 gross investment 2.3 0.03 0.31
 Federal 2.7 -0.23 0.33
 National defense 1.9 -0.36 0.50
 Nondefense 4.3 0.13 -0.18
 State and local 2.1 0.26 -0.02

 Contribution
 to percent
 change in Share of
 real GDP current-
 (percentage dollar
 points) GDP
 (percent)

 2004 2004

 I II II

 Gross domestic product (GDP) 4.5 3.0 100.0
Personal consumption expenditures 2.90 0.73 69.9
 Durable goods 0.19 -0.21 8.3
 Nondurable goods 1.33 -0.01 20.2
 Services 1.39 0.95 41.4
Gross private domestic investment 1.86 1.97 16.2
 Fixed investment 0.69 1.68 15.9
 Nonresidential 0.42 0.87 10.2
 Structures -0.19 0.12 2.3
 Equipment and software 0.61 0.75 7.9
 Residential 0.27 0.81 5.7
 Change in private inventories 1.17 0.28 0.4
Net exports of goods and services -0.76 -0.08 -4.8
 Exports 0.70 1.25 10.2
 Goods 0.60 0.96 7.1
 Services 0.10 0.29 3.0
 Imports -1.46 -1.33 15.0
 Goods -1.43 -1.03 12.5
 Services -0.03 -0.03 2.5
Government consumption expenditures and
 gross investment 0.48 0.43 18.7
 Federal 0.48 0.19 6.9
 National defense 0.47 0.09 4.6
 Nondefense 0.00 0.10 2.3
 State and local 0.00 0.24 11.7

NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 1.1.1, and contributions
to percent change are from NIPA table 1.1.2. Shares are from NIPA
table 1.1.10.

Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product by Type of Product

[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

 Change from preceding
 period
 (percent)

 2003 2004

 III IV I II
 Gross domestic
 product (GDP) 7.4 4.2 4.5 3.0
 Final sales of domestic
 product 6.8 3.7 3.3 2.8
 Change In private
 inventories
Goods 17.7 5.8 8.2 2.5
Services 1.1 3.1 3.0 1.9
Structures 13.9 5.4 0.7 11.8
Addenda:
 Motor vehicle output 26.3 2.9 8.8 -25.5
 GDP excluding motor
 vehicle output 6.8 4.2 4.3 4.2
 Final sales of computers 93.7 29.0 0.1 3.8
 GDP excluding final sales of
 computers 6.8 4.0 4.5 3.0

 Contribution to percent
 change in real GDP
 (percentage points)

 2003 2004

 III IV I II
 Gross domestic
 product (GDP) 7.4 4.2 4.5 3.0
 Final sales of domestic
 product 6.84 3.71 3.32 2.76
 Change In private
 inventories 0.57 0.47 1.17 0.28
Goods 5.45 1.90 2.65 0.83
Services 0.67 1.77 1.76 1.10
Structures 1.29 0.52 0.07 1.11
Addenda:
 Motor vehicle output 0.84 0.11 0.30 -1.01
 GDP excluding motor
 vehicle output 6.57 4.08 4.18 4.06
 Final sales of computers 0.64 0.26 0.00 0.04
 GDP excluding final sales of
 computers 6.77 3.93 4.48 3.00

 Share of
 current-
 dollar
 GDP
 (percent)

 2004

 II

 Gross domestic
 product (GDP) 100.0
 Final sales of domestic
 product 99.6
 Change In private
 inventories 0.4
Goods 32.7
Services 57.3
Structures 10.0
Addenda:
 Motor vehicle output 3.3
 GDP excluding motor
 vehicle output 96.7
 Final sales of computers 1.0
 GDP excluding final sales of
 computers 99.0

NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 1.2.1, and contributions to
percent change are from NIPA table 1.2.2. Shares are calculated from
NIPA table 1.2.5.

Table 3. Price Indexes

[Percent change at annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted index
numbers (2000=100)]

 Change from preceding period
 (percent)

 2003 2004

 III IV I II

 Gross domestic purchases 1.7 1.4 3.4 3.5
Personal consumption expenditures 1.6 1.2 3.3 3.3
 Durable goods -4.4 -4.3 0.0 -0.1
 Nondurablegoods 3.5 0.5 5.3 6.7
 Services 2.0 2.7 3.0 2.3
Gross private domestic investment 1.2 2.7 2.1 3.6
 Fixed investment 1.2 2.8 2.0 3.4
 Nonresidential 0.3 1.2 0.3 1.5
 Structures 1.3 1.4 4.8 5.8
 Equipment and software 0.0 1.2 -1.1 0.2
 Residential 3.1 5.8 5.4 7.0
 Change in private inventories
Government consumption expenditures
 and gross investment 2.2 1.0 5.1 4.0
 Federal 1.1 1.0 6.6 2.9
 National defense 1.1 1.3 5.7 3.4
 Nondefense 1.0 0.3 8.3 1.8
 State and local 2.9 1.0 4.2 4.7
Addenda:
Gross domestic purchases:
 Food 2.7 4.1 2.8 4.2
 Energy goods and services 10.6 -7.1 27.0 25.2
 Excluding food and energy 1.2 1.5 2.5 2.4
Personal consumptions expenditures:
 Food 2.8 3.9 2.6 3.9
 Energy goods and services 11.0 -8.5 26.7 27.0
 Excluding food and energy 0.9 1.3 2.1 1.8
Gross domestic product 1.4 1.6 2.8 3.2

 Contribution to percent change
 in gross domestic purchases prices
 (percentage points)

 2003 2004

 III IV I II

 Gross domestic purchases 1.7 1.4 3.4 3.5
Personal consumption expenditures 1.10 0.82 2.19 2.19
 Durable goods -0.37 -0.37 0.00 -0.01
 Nondurablegoods 0.67 0.11 1.00 1.26
 Services 0.80 1.08 1.20 0.93
Gross private domestic investment 0.17 0.40 0.32 0.55
 Fixed investment 0.18 0.40 0.30 0.51
 Nonresidential 0.03 0.12 0.03 0.15
 Structures 0.03 0.03 0.10 0.13
 Equipment and software 0.00 0.09 -0.08 0.02
 Residential 0.15 0.29 0.28 0.36
 Change in private inventories -0.01 -0.01 0.02 0.04
Government consumption expenditures
 and gross investment 0.40 0.18 0.89 0.71
 Federal 0.07 0.06 0.42 0.19
 National defense 0.05 0.06 0.25 0.15
 Nondefense 0.02 0.01 0.18 0.04
 State and local 0.33 0.11 0.47 0.52
Addenda:
Gross domestic purchases:
 Food 0.25 0.38 0.27 0.40
 Energy goods and services 0.39 -0.29 0.98 0.96
 Excluding food and energy 1.01 1.31 2.16 2.10
Personal consumptions expenditures:
 Food
 Energy goods and services
 Excluding food and energy
Gross domestic product

NOTE. Most percent changes are from NIPA table 1.6.7; percent changes
for personal consumption expenditures on energy goods and services and
for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy are
calculated from index numbers in NIPA table 2.3.4. Contributions to
percent change are from NIPA table 1.6.8.

Table 4. Personal Income and Its Disposition

[Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

 Level Change from
 preceding quarter

 2004 2003

 II III IV

Compensation of employees,
 received 6,602.0 77.7 82.0
 Wage and salary disbursements 5,330.6 55.3 60.3
 Private industries 4,407.2 51.9 56.4
 Goods-producing industries 1,055.6 6.1 19.8
 Manufacturing 697.8 2.5 14.2
 Services-producing industries 3,351.6 45.7 36.7
 Trade, transportation, and
 utilities 892.9 7.8 11.3
 Other services-producing
 industries 2,458.7 38.0 25.5
 Government 923.4 3.3 3.9
 Supplements to wages and salaries 1,271.4 22.4 21.7
Proprietors' income with IVA
 and CCAdj 902.8 26.3 12.7
 Farm 18.6 0.7 -0.1
 Nonfarm 884.2 25.6 12.8
Rental income of persons
 with CCAdj 173.8 4.7 18.3
Personal income receipts on
 assets 1,351.9 -10.3 11.4
 Personal interest income 941.2 -9.6 9.2
 Personal dividend income 410.6 -0.7 2.2
Personal current transfer
 receipts 1,400.8 13.1 4.5
Less: Contributions for
 government social insurance 816.5 7.8 8.3
Equals: Personal Income 9,614.8 103.6 120.7
Less: Personal current taxes 1,030.3 -8.0 67.7
Equals: Disposable personal
 income 8,584.5 192.6 52.9
Less: Personal outlays 8,442.5 124.9 101.6
Equals: Personal saving 142.0 67.7 -48.7
Addenda: Special factors in
 personal income:
 In government wages and salaries:
 Federal pay raise 5.5 0.0 0.0
 Federal civilian retroactive pay 1.5 -1.6 0.0
 Reservists' pay 8.1 -0.8 -1.0
 In supplements to wages and
 salaries:
 Employer contributions for social
 insurance 7.2 0.0 0.0
 In contributions for social
 insurance:
 Changes in premium for
 supplementary medical
 insurance 3.2 0.0 0.0
 In personal current transfer
 receipts:
 Social security retroactive 0.0 0.0 2.5
 payments
 Cost-of-living adjustments in
 Federal transfer programs 11.9 0.0 0.5
 Earned-income tax credit 2.7 0.0 0.0
 In personal current taxes:
 Federal tax law changes -0.3 0.0 0.0
 Refunds, settlements, and other -0.8 0.0 0.0

 Change from
 preceding quarter

 2004

 I II

Compensation of employees,
 received 104.6 90.7
 Wage and salary disbursements 72.1 69.6
 Private industries 59.7 63.6
 Goods-producing industries 15.9 14.1
 Manufacturing 9.7 8.0
 Services-producing industries 43.8 49.5
 Trade, transportation, and
 utilities 11.1 9.8
 Other services-producing
 industries 32.6 39.7
 Government 12.3 6.1
 Supplements to wages and salaries 32.6 21.0
Proprietors' income with IVA
 and CCAdj 7.4 30.7
 Farm -6.8 0.7
 Nonfarm 14.2 30.0
Rental income of persons
 with CCAdj 5.7 1.0
Personal income receipts on
 assets 11.3 14.8
 Personal interest income 4.2 5.0
 Personal dividend income 7.1 9.7
Personal current transfer
 receipts 28.3 21.8
Less: Contributions for
 government social insurance 21.9 9.6
Equals: Personal Income 135.4 149.4
Less: Personal current taxes 1.0 19.9
Equals: Disposable personal
 income 134.5 129.5
Less: Personal outlays 142.2 90.9
Equals: Personal saving -7.7 38.6
Addenda: Special factors in
 personal income:
 In government wages and salaries:
 Federal pay raise 5.2 0.3
 Federal civilian retroactive pay 0.3 1.2
 Reservists' pay 0.9 -0.9
 In supplements to wages and
 salaries:
 Employer contributions for social
 insurance 7.2 0.0
 In contributions for social
 insurance:
 Changes in premium for
 supplementary medical
 insurance 3.2 0.0
 In personal current transfer
 receipts:
 Social security retroactive -2.5 0.0
 payments
 Cost-of-living adjustments in
 Federal transfer programs 11.4 0.0
 Earned-income tax credit 2.7 0.0
 In personal current taxes:
 Federal tax law changes -0.3 0.0
 Refunds, settlements, and other -8.8 0.0

NOTE. Dollar levels are from NIPA tables 2.1 and 2.1B.

IVA Inventory valuation adjustment

CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment

Second-Quarter 2004 Advance NIPA Estimates: Source Data and Assumptions

The "advance" estimates for the second quarter are based on the following major source data; as more and better data become available, the estimates will be revised. (The number of months for which data were available is shown in parentheses.)

Personal consumption expenditures: Sales of retail stores (3), unit auto and truck sales (3), and consumers' shares of auto and truck sales (3);

Nonresidential fixed investment: Unit auto and truck sales (3), construction put in place (2), manufacturers' shipments of machinery and equipment other than aircraft (3), shipments of civilian aircraft (2), and exports and imports of machinery and equipment (2);

Residential investment: Construction put in place (2), single-family housing starts (3), and sales of new and existing houses (3);

Change in private inventories: Trade and nondurable manufacturing inventories (2), durable manufacturing inventories (3), and unit auto and truck inventories (3);

Net exports of goods and services: Exports and imports of goods and services (2);

Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: Federal outlays (3), state and local construction put in place (2), and state and local employment (3);

GDP prices: Consumer price indexes (3), producer price indexes (3), U.S. import and export price indexes (3), and values and quantities of petroleum imports (2).

BEA made assumptions for source data that were not available. Table A shows the assumptions for key series; a more comprehensive list is available on BEA's Web site at <www.bea.gov>.

Table A. Summary of Major Source Data and Assumptions for Advance
Estimates, 2004: II

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

 2004

 January February
Private fixed investment:
 Nonresidential structures:
 Value of new total private construction 210.1 215.7
 put in place less residential (including
 improvements)
 Equipment and software:
 Manufacturers' shipments of complete aircraft 26.8 26.6
 Residential structures:
 Value of new residential construction put in
 place:
 Single family 348.0 348.1
 Multifamily 35.6 36.8
Change in private inventories:
 Change in inventories for nondurable
 manufacturing 13.4 17.9
 Change in inventories for merchant wholesale and
 retail industries other than motor vehicles
 and equipment 1.0 53.0
Net exports: (2)
 Exports of goods:
 U.S. exports of goods, international-
 transactions-accounts basis 740.2 779.2
 Excluding gold 735.1 775.3
 Imports of goods:
 U.S. imports of goods, international-
 transactions-accounts basis 1,335.3 1,376.4
 Excludinq gold 1,331.2 1,372.0
 Net exports of goods -595.1 -597.2
 Excluding gold -596.2 -596.7
Government:
 State and local:
 Structures:
 Value of new construction put in place 205.4 204.5

 2004

 March April
Private fixed investment:
 Nonresidential structures:
 Value of new total private construction 216.5 219.7
 put in place less residential (including
 improvements)
 Equipment and software:
 Manufacturers' shipments of complete aircraft 27.7 24.6
 Residential structures:
 Value of new residential construction put in
 place:
 Single family 353.5 360.1
 Multifamily 37.6 37.5
Change in private inventories:
 Change in inventories for nondurable
 manufacturing 8.7 6.3
 Change in inventories for merchant wholesale and
 retail industries other than motor vehicles
 and equipment 41.0 34.9
Net exports: (2)
 Exports of goods:
 U.S. exports of goods, international-
 transactions-accounts basis 807.6 791.4
 Excluding gold 803.5 787.9
 Imports of goods:
 U.S. imports of goods, international-
 transactions-accounts basis 1,424.5 1,427.2
 Excludinq gold 1,420.7 1,423.4
 Net exports of goods -616.9 -635.9
 Excluding gold -617.3 -635.5
Government:
 State and local:
 Structures:
 Value of new construction put in place 218.1 219.9

 2004

 May June (1)
Private fixed investment:
 Nonresidential structures:
 Value of new total private construction 218.9 219.3
 put in place less residential (including
 improvements)
 Equipment and software:
 Manufacturers' shipments of complete aircraft 31.3 23.7
 Residential structures:
 Value of new residential construction put in
 place:
 Single family 364.9 361.3
 Multifamily 37.7 37.4
Change in private inventories:
 Change in inventories for nondurable
 manufacturing 10.5 11.9
 Change in inventories for merchant wholesale and
 retail industries other than motor vehicles
 and equipment 60.8 36.2
Net exports: (2)
 Exports of goods:
 U.S. exports of goods, international-
 transactions-accounts basis 824.5 822.6
 Excluding gold 820.8 819.0
 Imports of goods:
 U.S. imports of goods, international-
 transactions-accounts basis 1,434.2 1,452.7
 Excludinq gold 1,431.4 1,449.1
 Net exports of goods -609.7 -630.0
 Excluding gold -610.6 -630.0
Government:
 State and local:
 Structures:
 Value of new construction put in place 219.7 219.8

(1.) Assumption.

(2.) Nonmonetary gold is included in balance-of-payments-basis exports
and imports but is not used directly in the estimation of NIPA exports
and imports.

(1.) "Real" estimates are in chained (2000) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures.

Quarterly estimates in the NIPAs are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized.

(2.) See Eugene P. Seskin and Shelly Smith, "Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts: Annual Estimates, 2001-2003, and Quarterly Estimates, 2001:I-2004:I" in this issue.

(3.) In this article, "consumer spending" is shorthand for the NIPA series "personal consumption expenditures; "inventory investment" is shorthand for "change in private inventories," and "government spending" is shorthand for government consumption expenditures and gross investment."

(4.) The personal saving rate is measured as personal saving as a percentage of current-dollar disposable personal income. Estimates of the national savings rates (measured as gross saving and net saving as a percentage of gross national income) will be available at the end of August along with the "preliminary" estimates of the NIPAs for the second quarter.

(5.) In the NIPAs, an increase in the rate of Federal employee compensation is treated as an increase in the price of employee services purchased by the Federal Government.

(6.) "Employer contributions for government social insurance" is shown in NIPA table 2.1, line S. These contributions do not affect personal income. They are part of "supplements to wage and salaries," but they are substracted (along with employee and serf-employed contributions) in "contributions for government social insurance" line 24.