Preview of the 2015 annual revision of the national income and product accounts.
McCulla, Stephanie H. ; Smith, Shelly
ON JULY 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its
annual update of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) in
conjunction with the advance estimate for the second quarter of 2015. As
is usual for annual NIPA revisions, the revised estimates will
incorporate newly available source data that are more complete, more
detailed, and otherwise more reliable than those that were previously
incorporated. The major source data that will be incorporated as part of
this year's annual revision are shown in table A.
This year's annual revision will introduce the following:
* An improved treatment of federal refundable tax credits in the
personal income and outlays account and the government receipts and
expenditures account
*Two new aggregates--the average of gross domestic product (GDP)
and gross domestic income (GDI) and final sales to private domestic
purchasers--that will facilitate the analysis of macroeconomic trends
*Improvements to the seasonal adjustment of GDP components,
including federal defense spending on services, and of the source data
underlying several other NIPA components
*An expanded presentation of payments and receipts of transfers and
taxes between the United States and the "rest of world" that
will harmonize the NIPA presentation of these transactions with the
presentation in BEA's international transactions accounts (ITAs)
*An improved presentation of exports and imports that provides
detail on exports of petroleum and products that will align the NIPA
presentation of trade in industrial supplies and materials with the
presentation in the ITAs
The timespan of the revisions will be generally limited to 2012
through the first quarter of 2015 with two exceptions. First, the new
treatment of federal refundable tax credits will revise some series,
including personal income, government current receipts, and government
current expenditures, back to 1976. Second, the updated presentation of
the transfer and tax flows between the United States and the rest of the
world will result in changes to the estimates back to 1999. None of the
changes will affect the current reference year (2009) for price and
quantity measures; the revisions to GDP and its components will be
limited to 2012 and later.
The effects of these changes and other changes to the NIPA tables
are itemized in "Table B. Upcoming Changes to the NIPA Tables"
at the end of this article.
Federal refundable tax credits
Federal income tax credits allow taxpayers who meet certain
eligibility criteria to reduce the amount they are required to pay in
federal income taxes. A tax credit is considered to be
"refundable" if any excess of the tax credit over a
taxpayer's total tax liability is paid to the taxpayer as a refund.
In contrast, tax credits are considered to be "nonrefundable"
if taxpayers can only claim the credit up to the amount of their tax
liability. (1) Examples of refundable tax credits include the earned
income tax credit and the temporary "Making Work Pay" tax
credit (see table C).
Current treatment. In the NIPAs, the portion of refundable tax
credits that is not directly paid to taxpayers as refunds (that is, the
amount up to, but not exceeding, the total liability) is recorded as a
reduction in the income taxes paid by persons to the federal government,
and the portion that is paid to taxpayers as refunds (that is, any
excess of the credit over the liability) is recorded as a government
social benefit. This treatment provides an accurate picture of actual
tax revenues and payments, but it obscures the full costs and benefits
of government tax policies; that is, households not only receive the
amount by which tax credits exceed their tax liabilities--but they are
also relieved of the associated liabilities. Similarly, the government
not only pays the refunds, but it also relinquishes its claim on the
associated tax liabilities.
New treatment. As part of this annual revision, the NIPAs will
record the full value of the liabilities and the credits associated with
refundable tax credit programs administered by the federal government in
the accounts for personal income and outlays and for federal government
receipts and expenditures. (2) This change will improve the consistency
of the NIPAs with the System of National Accounts 2008, the
international guidelines for national economic accounts, which
recommends that the total value of refundable tax credits, not just the
amount paid to persons, be recognized as a transfer from the government
to the household sector. (3) As a result, estimates of federal
government social benefit payments to persons will be revised up to
reflect the total amount of the refundable tax credits, and estimates of
personal current taxes paid to the federal government will be revised up
by an equal amount to reflect the total tax liability of taxpayers
(which does not include the refunds).
Effects on the accounts. Within the personal income and outlays
account, current transfer receipts of government social benefits will
increase; these increased benefits will result in increases to personal
income. As personal current tax payments will increase by the same
amount, disposable personal income, derived as personal income less
personal current taxes, will not be affected. In addition, estimates of
personal saving and the personal saving rate will be unrevised by this
change. Within the government receipts and expenditures account, equal
increases in government social benefits and in personal current taxes
will result in equal increases in government current expenditures and
current receipts. As a result, government saving will not be affected.
(4)
This change will be carried back to 1976, reflecting the
introduction of the earned income tax credit, which is the earliest
major refundable tax credit program. Revisions will range from less than
$1 billion in early years to about $70 billion (0.5 percent of personal
income) in 2008, when the rebate payments from the Economic Stimulus Act
of 2008 were made. Annual estimates through 2013 will be based on
Internal Revenue Service (IRS) data; for years when IRS data are
unavailable, the estimates will be based on projections of fiscal-year
tax expenditures for the relevant credits produced by the Office of
Management and Budget and the Treasury Department's Office of Tax
Analysis. These preliminary estimates will be updated as part of a
future NIPA annual revision when the final IRS data are available. For
quarterly and monthly estimates, in most cases, the total amount of the
estimated tax liability for each year and the total amount of the tax
credit will be spread evenly across the 12 months of that year. (5)
New aggregates
This year's annual revision will introduce two new statistics
to the suite of NIPA products: one that presents the average of GDP and
GDI and one that presents final sales to private domestic purchasers
(sometimes referred to as "private domestic demand").
Average of GDP and GDI. Several studies in recent years have
compared the reliability of two of BEA's measures of
production--GDP, which is derived as the sum of final expenditures, and
GDI, which is derived as the sum of incomes generated in production.
Some of these studies have concluded that an average of these measures
would better reflect the economic growth in a particular period by
recognizing known measurement inconsistencies between the two
statistics, such as timing differences, gaps in underlying source data,
and survey measurement errors.(6) The average of GDP and GDI is also one
of the macroeconomic indicators used by the National Bureau of Economic
Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee when determining turning
points in the U.S. business cycle.(7) With this annual revision, BEA
will present this supplemental measure of economic growth, simply
labeled "Average of GDP and GDI," along with the existing
measures of GDP and GDI.
The new series will be calculated in current dollars and in chained
dollars. Current-dollar measures will be derived as the equally weighted
average of GDP and GDI for any given quarter or year. Chained-dollar, or
real, measures will be derived by deflating the current-dollar values by
the GDP price index. Measures of the percent change in the
current-dollar and chained-dollar estimates will also be provided.
Annual estimates will be available beginning with 1929, and quarterly
estimates will be available beginning with the first quarter of 1947.
The series will be presented in a number of NIPA tables (see table B on
pages 7 and 8).
Final sales to private domestic purchasers. This new measure will
provide users with a new statistic for analyzing private demand in the
domestic economy. The current-dollar measure will be derived as the sum
of consumer spending and private fixed investment. Chained-dollar
measures and price and volume indexes will be calculated using
BEA's standard methodologies for Fisher-weighted, chain-type
indexes. (8) Measures of the percent change in the estimates will also
be provided. Annual estimates will be available beginning with 1929, and
quarterly estimates will be available beginning with the first quarter
of 1947. The series will be presented in a number of NIPA tables (see
table B on pages 7 and 8).
Seasonal adjustment
Seasonal adjustments remove recurring seasonal variations
(variations that occur in the same month or quarter each year) from
economic series so that the remaining movements in the series better
reflect underlying trends in economic activity. Many of the data series
used by BEA to estimate GDP are seasonally adjusted by the source data
agencies. For series that are not seasonally adjusted by the source data
agency, BEA adjusts some series using the X-12 ARIMA process. (9) In
other cases, relatively new source data cannot be seasonally adjusted
with conventional methods until the time series is sufficiently long
(usually, at least 5 years) to adequately capture seasonal variations.
In general, the seasonal adjustment techniques used by BEA and its
source data agencies successfully remove seasonal patterns from the
estimates. However, for a variety of reasons, including differences
between monthly and quarterly seasonal patterns and the aggregation of
data from different sources, residual seasonality may arise, as
discussed in the box "Seasonality in the National Income and
Product Accounts (NIPAs)." Each year, BEA and its source data
agencies update the estimated seasonal factors and review and update
seasonal adjustment procedures to account for changes in seasonal
patterns and to address residual seasonality emerging over time.
As part of this year's annual revision, BEA will begin
seasonally adjusting several of the indicators used to estimate two
components: personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for services and
change in private inventories. Additionally, BEA has identified, and
will address, residual seasonality in its measures of federal government
defense spending on services. If additional changes are necessary for
this annual revision, they will be described in future articles or on
BEA's Web site.
Quarterly measures of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for
services. BEA uses data from the Census Bureau's quarterly services
survey (QSS) as quarterly indicators in the estimation of many of the
detailed components within the PCE categories for health care,
transportation, recreation, financial services, and components of
"other" services (specifically, communication, education,
professional, personal care and clothing, household maintenance, and
social services). QSS data are also used as indicators in the estimation
of the final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving
households. (10)
For several of the detailed components within these PCE
categories--such as hospitals and nursing homes, garbage and trash
collection, and legal services--the QSS data are seasonally adjusted,
either by the Census Bureau or by BEA. For many other components, the
underlying QSS data became available more recently and only now have a
time series of sufficient length for calculating seasonal factors. (11)
As part of this annual revision, BEA will seasonally adjust the QSS data
series for which reliable seasonal patterns have been identified, and it
will apply the seasonally adjusted indicators to corresponding PCE
components beginning with the first quarter of 2012; the effects on
overall PCE and GDP will vary. (12) Previously, BEA used four-quarter
moving averages to smooth possible seasonal variations in these source
data and will continue to do so for those QSS data for which reliable
seasonal patterns have not been identified or for which additional
observation is warranted. The seasonally adjusted indicators will be
incorporated for periods before 2012 as part of the next comprehensive
revision of the NIPAs.
Change in private inventories. Similarly, beginning with the first
quarter of 2012, BEA will begin seasonally adjusting inventory data from
the Census Bureau's Quarterly Financial Report (QFR) that are used
to derive quarterly estimates of the change in inventories for the
mining and information industries. (13) Mining is included in
"mining, utilities, and construction," and information is
included in "other" industries.
Federal defense consumption expenditures. BEA's measures of
federal defense consumption expenditures and gross investment are
constructed from detailed expenditures data from the Department of
Defense and from data from the Treasury Department. BEA makes a number
of adjustments to these data for coverage and timing, but in recent
years, a seasonal pattern has become apparent in the Treasury data that
does not reflect the accrual-based accounting method that BEA uses for
estimating federal defense expenditures for services.
As part of this year's annual revision, BEA will seasonally
adjust the estimates of defense expenditures on services beginning with
the first quarter of 2012. Initial research suggests that the
fourth-quarter growth rates are currently understated, while the
third-quarter growth rates are overstated; preliminary estimates
indicate most of the revisions will occur between the third and fourth
quarters of each year.
Improved prices for financial services
BEA will improve its price measures for two components of PCE for
financial services charges, fees, and commissions: portfolio management
and investment advice services and trust, fiduciary, and custody
activities. Currently, prices for portfolio management and investment
advice services are derived using Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data
on employment, hours, and earnings. Prices for trust services are
implicitly derived using expenditure data from the Federal Deposit
Insurance Corporation's Call Report and quantity data based on the
BLS productivity index for commercial bank trust services. Beginning
with the first quarter of 2012, BEA will replace these prices with BLS
producer price indexes (PPIs) that are conceptually more closely aligned
with these services.
Specifically, prices for portfolio management and investment advice
services will be based on a weighted average of PPIs for portfolio
management and for investment advice. Prices for trust services will be
based on the PPI for commercial bank services. These PPIs show faster
price growth than previously estimated for both of these financial
services, which implies slower growth in price-adjusted, or real,
portfolio management and investment services and in trust services.
Changes in presentation
Two significant changes in presentation will be introduced with
this annual revision: an improved presentation of current transfers and
taxes to and from the rest of the world as well as additional detail on
exports and imports of goods. In addition, other changes to the NIPA
tables are itemized in table B on pages 7 and 8.
Improved presentation of transfers and taxes to and from the rest
of the world. As part of the 2014 annual revision of the NIPAs, BEA
incorporated several changes to reflect the recommendations of the 6th
edition of the Balance of Payments Manual and International Investment
Position Manual (BPM6) and to maintain consistency with BEA's
international transactions accounts (ITAs), which incorporated most of
the BPM6 recommendations as part of its 2014 comprehensive restructuring
of the accounts. (14) This year, the NIPAs will incorporate an
additional change--to show transfers and taxes to and from the rest of
the world on a gross basis--in accordance with these recommendations and
with the ITAs.
Currently, the NIPAs present current transfer and tax payments to
the rest of the world net of the transfers and taxes received from the
rest of the world. The BPM6 recommends that these transfers be shown on
a gross basis as "secondary" income payments and receipts. The
ITAs made this change in 2014; this year, the NIPAs will adopt a similar
presentation, which will be carried back to the first quarter of 1999.
The effects of these changes on specific NIPA tables are noted in table
B on pages 7 and 8.
Improved presentation of exports and imports of industrial supplies
and materials. As part of this annual revision, BEA will improve the
NIPA presentation of net exports by providing additional detail on
exports of petroleum and petroleum products--a frequent request of data
users--and by aligning the presentations of exports and imports of
industrial supplies and materials. Specifically, NIPA table group 4.2
will add new lines--"Petroleum and products" and
"Nondurable goods excluding petroleum"--to the
"Nondurable goods" category of exports under "Industrial
supplies and materials." Currently, detail on petroleum and
petroleum products is presented only for imports. Additionally, the
presentation of imports in table group 4.2 will present the aggregate
measure of "Industrial supplies and materials" that will
correspond to the measure that is currently provided for exports; the
detail under this aggregate will mirror the new detail for exports.
Currently, the NIPAs present import measures of "Industrial
supplies and materials, except petroleum and products" and of
"Petroleum and products." (15)
New data for exports and imports of goods for advance GDP estimates
BEA's estimates of exports and imports of goods are based
primarily on data from the joint BEA-Census Bureau report "U. S.
International Trade in Goods and Services." For advance GDP
estimates, Census Bureau data previously were available for the first
and second months of the quarter, and BEA made assumptions for the
missing third month of data. However, on July 30 (the same day the
advance GDP report for the second quarter of 2015 will be issued), the
Census Bureau will begin publishing an advance report on U.S.
international trade in goods. The new trade report will feature
statistics on exports and imports of goods for the most recent month;
for example, it will feature new trade statistics for June.
Beginning in July, the Census Bureau will provide BEA access to
this report in advance of the official publication date to allow BEA to
incorporate the data into its estimates of exports and imports for the
advance GDP estimates. Replacing BEA's trade in goods assumptions
with data from the new Census Bureau report will significantly improve
the advance estimates of GDP and is expected to reduce the size of
revisions to GDP growth in the second estimates. (16)
By Stephanie H. McCulla and Shelly Smith
(1.) In contrast to refundable and nonrefundable tax credits, tax
allowances, exemptions, and deductions are subtracted in the calculation
of taxable income, reducing the amount of the original liability.
(2.) Refundable tax credits are also offered by some state
governments, but source data are not currently available for estimating
the value of these credits, and no change will be made to their
treatment in the NIPAs at present. Preliminary BEA research suggests
that the value of state government credits is much smaller than the
value of federal credits, and for most state and local tax credit
programs, the full value is already captured in the NIPA estimates of
government social benefit payments.
(3.) See European Commission, International Monetary Fund,
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, United Nations,
and World Bank, System of National Accounts 2008 (New York: United
Nations, 2009), paragraphs 22.95-22.98.
(4.) Similarly, net lending or net borrowing of the federal
government will be unrevised.
(5.) Consistent with other NIPA estimates of tax settlements and
refunds, revisions will be made to estimates for the year following the
year of tax liability (for example, a tax credit earned for 1996 will be
recognized in the NIPAs for 1997, the year in which the taxes are
filed).
(6.) Several studies have suggested the use of a weighted average
of GDP and GDI; see Dennis J. Fixler, Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy, and Bruce
T. Grimm, "The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major
Components," SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 94 (August 2014); S.
Boragan Aruoba, Francis X. Diebold, Jeremy Nalewaik, Frank Schorfheide,
and Dongho Song, "Improving GDP Measurement: A Forecast Combination
Perspective," in Causality, Prediction, and Specification Analysis:
Recent Advances and Future Directions: Essays in Honor of Halbert L.
White Jr., edited by Xiaohong Chen and Norman R. Swanson (New York, NY:
Springer, 2012): 1-26; and William D. Nordhaus, "Income,
Expenditures, and the 'Two Map Problem'" (paper presented
at the BEA Advisory Committee Meeting, Washington, DC, November 4,
2011). These papers suggested using weighted averages of GDP and GDI and
propose various criteria for determining the weights. The weights
proposed in these papers are generally between 0.3 and 0.7. BEA will
present an equally weighted average because according to the criteria
specified in these papers, the estimates appear to be similar with
respect to accuracy, and the equally weighted average will avoid the
complications associated with updating and revising the weights.
(7.) See the announcement of September 20, 2010, from the National
Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee on
its Web site.
(8.) For more information on BEA's estimating methodology for
chain-type indexes, see "Chapter 4. Estimating Methods" in
Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts on
BEA's Web site.
(9.) X-12 ARIMA is a software program developed by the Census
Bureau to identify and remove seasonal effects from a time series; for
more information, see the Census Bureau Web site. In cases where a
series lacks a sufficient timespan to derive seasonal factors, BEA often
uses smoothing techniques, such as moving averages, to reduce
seasonality in the data.
(10.) QSS data are used as indicators to estimate over 42 percent
of the quarterly measures of PCE for services.
(11.) The QSS was first conducted in 2004, and the data were
introduced as indicators as part of the 2005 annual revision. Since
then, as the Census Bureau has expanded the survey's coverage, BEA
has expanded the use of QSS data for an increasing number of NIPA
components. For example, see Eugene P. Seskin and Alyssa E. Holdren,
"Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts,"
SURVEY 92 (August 2012): 26.
(12.) Detailed PCE series for which seasonally adjusted QSS data
and not seasonally adjusted QSS data are currently used to derive the
quarterly estimates are listed in a spreadsheet linked to the BEA FAQ
"How is BEA using the Census Bureau's quarterly services
survey in its estimates of personal consumption expenditures?" With
the release of the annual revision in July, this spreadsheet will be
updated to reflect the current use of seasonally adjusted QSS data.
(13.) For the mining industry, the QFR data are used for the
estimates beginning with the second quarter of 2010. For the information
industry, the QFR data are used beginning with the second quarter of
2012.
(14.) For information on the BPM6 and the restructuring of the
ITAs, see Balance of Payments and International Investment Position
Manual, 6th ed. (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2009) and
Maria Borga and Kristy L. Howell, "The Comprehensive Restructuring
of the International Economic Accounts: Changes in Definitions,
Classifications, and Presentations," SURVEY 94 (March 2014). For
information on the changes incorporated during the 2014 annual revision
of the NIPAs, see Stephanie H. McCulla, Alyssa E. Holdren, and Shelly
Smith, "The 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product
Accounts," SURVEY 94 (August 2014).
(15.) The same changes will be made to the corresponding underlying
detail tables (table group 4.2U).
(16.) For more information, see BEA's FAQ "How will the
Census Bureau's new advance trade report impact BEA's GDP
estimate?"
Seasonality in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs)
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) removes seasonal patterns
from its estimates by using seasonally adjusted source data whenever
possible and by regularly reviewing and updating its adjustment
procedures. BEA prefers using seasonally adjusted source data because
this approach maintains the transparency of BEA's estimating
methods, allowing users to trace the estimating process--from the
incorporation of the initial source data to the publication of NIPA
estimates.
Recently, several reports have noted that over the last decade,
first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) has tended to grow, on
average, at a slower pace than in the other quarters. Analysts have
debated the extent to which this phenomenon reflects special factors,
such as unusually harsh winter weather, or if it reflects
"residual" seasonality in the seasonally adjusted GDP
estimates. (1)
While BEA has not taken a position in this debate, it is aware that
its approach to the measurement of GDP introduces the potential for
residual seasonality. Residual seasonality is a manifestation of
seasonal patterns in data that have already been seasonally adjusted. It
can result for a variety of reasons. Seasonal patterns may change over
time, and it may take time for statistical adjustment techniques to
identify the new patterns. Residual seasonality may result when
seasonally adjusted individual series are aggregated. Source data that
are seasonally adjusted at one frequency (such as monthly) may exhibit
seasonality when aggregated to another frequency (such as quarterly).
Finally, when seasonally adjusted current-dollar values are deflated by
seasonally adjusted prices, the resulting real estimates may exhibit
seasonality.
While BEA constructs seasonally adjusted estimates of GDP using
seasonally adjusted source data, some countries use unadjusted source
data and apply techniques to remove seasonality only after the detailed
estimates have been aggregated. While this approach eliminates the
potential for residual seasonality, users are unable to replicate the
estimates without also replicating the seasonal adjustment process. In
some cases, BEA does not have access to the unadjusted data because of
gaps in the availability of high frequency (quarterly and monthly)
source data.
BEA works closely with its source data agencies to improve seasonal
adjustment techniques. For example, when residual seasonality was
identified in estimates of real petroleum imports, which had been
derived by deflating seasonally adjusted current-dollar estimates by
seasonally adjusted price indexes, BEA worked with the Census Bureau to
seasonally adjust the data on the quantity of petroleum imported;
improved estimates were introduced as part of the 2011 annual revision
of the NIPAs. (2) BEA has expanded its efforts to address seasonality in
its GDP statistics. As part of this year's annual revision, BEA
will do the following: (1) adopt new methods to seasonally adjust the
indicators that it uses to estimate personal consumption expenditures
for services and the change in private inventories and (2) seasonally
adjust its measure of federal defense spending on services, beginning
with the first quarter of 2012. BEA also plans to implement technology
improvements in processing systems for the GDP estimates that will allow
faster aggregate-level reviews for residual seasonality.
In addition, BEA is developing a comprehensive strategy to review
the estimation methods it currently uses to derive seasonally adjusted
GDP. First, a component-by-component review will identify the origins of
residual seasonality within the BEA's source data used to derive
GDP. The results of this analysis will help BEA and its source data
agencies to develop improved seasonal adjustment techniques and
estimation procedures that mitigate residual seasonality in estimates of
quarterly GDP. Second, BEA will develop a not seasonally adjusted GDP
series that will be released in parallel with BEA's quarterly GDP
estimates.(3) This unadjusted series will facilitate analyses of
BEA's seasonally adjusted GDP estimates and may provide earlier
indications of changes in seasonal patterns.
(1.) See, for example, Jason Furman, "Second Estimate of GDP
for the First Quarter of 2015," Council of Economic Advisers Blog,
May 29, 2015; and Charles E. Gilbert, Norman J. Morin, Andrew D.
Paciorek, and Claudia R. Sahm, "Residual Seasonality in GDP,"
FEDS Notes, May 14, 2015.
(2.) See Eugene P. Seskin and Shelly Smith, "Annual Revision
of the National Income and Product Accounts," SURVEY 91 (August
2011): 27.
(3.) BEA previously published not seasonally adjusted estimates of
GDP and its major components, in current dollars only, for quarters
within published years. These estimates were provided annually at the
time of the annual revisions of the NIPAs. Estimates for current
quarters were not included, and neither were not seasonally adjusted
estimates of real GDP. The not seasonally adjusted GDP estimates were
discontinued in 2008 in response to budget cuts.
Table A. Major Source Data To Be Incorporated as Part of the 2015
Annual Revision
Agency Data
Census Bureau Annual survey of wholesale trade
Annual survey of retail trade
Annual survey of manufactures
Economic census
Monthly indicators of manufactures,
merchant wholesale trade, and retail
trade
Service annual survey
Annual surveys of state and local
government finances
Monthly survey of construction
spending (value put in place)
Quarterly services survey
Current population survey/housing
vacancy survey
Office of Management and Budget Federal Budget
Internal Revenue Service Tabulations of tax returns for
corporations
Tabulations of tax returns for sole
proprietorships and partnerships
Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly census of employment and
wages
Department of Agriculture Farm statistics
Bureau of Economic Analysis International transactions accounts
Years covered
and vintage
Census Bureau 2012 (revised) and 2013 (new)
2012 (revised) and 2013 (new)
2013 (new)
2012 (new)
2012-2014 (revised)
2012 and 2013 (revised) and 2014
(new)
Fiscal years 2012 (revised) and 2013
(new)
2013-2014 (revised)
2012-2014 (revised)
2012 and 2013 (revised) and 2014
(new)
Office of Management and Budget Fiscal years 2014 and 2015 (revised)
Internal Revenue Service 2012 (revised) and 2013 (new)
2013 (new)
Bureau of Labor Statistics 2012-2014 (revised)
Department of Agriculture 2012-2014 (revised)
Bureau of Economic Analysis 2012-2014 (revised)
Table C. Federal Refundable Tax Credit Programs
Major programs Program dates
Earned Income Tax Credit 1975-present
Additional Child Tax Credit 1998-present
2008 Economic Stimulus Payments 2008
American Opportunity Tax Credit 2009-present
Making Work Pay Tax Credit 2010-2011
Health Insurance Premium Assistance Credits 2014-present
Table B. Upcoming Changes to the NIPA Tables
Table
number Table title
Section 1. Domestic Product and Income
1.1.11 Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Quarter One
Year Ago
1.4.1 Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic
Product, Real Gross Domestic Purchases, and Real Final Sales
to Domestic Purchasers
1.4.3 Real Gross Domestic Product, Real Gross Domestic Purchases, and
Real Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers, Quantity Indexes
1.4.4 Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product, Gross Domestic
Purchases, and Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers
1.4.5 Relation of Gross Domestic Product, Gross Domestic Purchases,
and Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers
1.4.6 Relation of Real Gross Domestic Product, Real Gross Domestic
Purchases, and Real Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers,
Chained Dollars
1.7.1 Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic
Product, Real Gross National Product, and Real Net National
Product
1.7.5 Relation of Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, Net
National Product, National Income, and Personal Income
1.7.6 Relation of Real Gross Domestic Product, Real Gross National
Product, and Real Net National Product, Chained Dollars
1.17.1 Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic
Product, Real Gross Domestic Income, and Other Major NIPA
Aggregates
1.17.5 Gross Domestic Product, Gross Domestic Income, and Other Major
NIPA Aggregates
1.17.6 Real Gross Domestic Product, Real Gross Domestic Income, and
Other Major NIPA Aggregates, Chained Dollars
Section 3. Government Current Receipts and Expenditures
3.1 Government Current Receipts and Expenditures
3.2 Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures
3.3 State and Local Government Current Receipts and Expenditures
3.7 Government Current Transfer Receipts
3.19 Relation of State and Local Government Current Receipts and
Expenditures in the National Income and Product Accounts to
Census Bureau "Government Finances" Data, Fiscal Years
3.20 State Government Current Receipts and Expenditures
3.21 Local Government Current Receipts and Expenditures
3.22 Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures, Not
Seasonally Adjusted
3.23 State and Local Government Current Receipts and Expenditures,
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Section 4. Foreign Transactions
4.1 Foreign Transaction in the National Income and Product Accounts
(NIPAs)
4.2.1 Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Exports and in
Real Imports of Goods and Services by Type of Product
4.2.2 Contributions to Percent Change in Real Exports and in Real
Imports of Goods and Services by Type of Product
4.2.3 Real Exports and Imports of Goods and Services by Type of
Product, Quantity Indexes
4.2.4 Price Indexes for Exports and Imports of Goods and Services by
Type of Product
4.2.5 Exports and Imports of Goods and Services by Type of Product
4.2.6 Real Exports and Imports of Goods and Services by Type of
Product, Chained Dollars
4.3B Relation of Foreign Transactions in the National Income and
Product Accounts to the Corresponding Items in the
International Transactions Accounts (ITAs)
Section 7. Supplemental Tables
7.7 Business Current Transfer Payments by Type
7.12 Imputations in the National Income and Product Accounts
Table
number Major changes
Section 1. Domestic Product and Income
1.1.11 New aggregates "final sales to private domestic purchasers" and
"average of gross domestic product (GDP) and gross domestic
income (GDI)" will be added to the addenda.
1.4.1
1.4.3
A new aggregate "final sales to private domestic purchasers"
1.4.4 will be added to the addenda.
1.4.5
1.4.6
1.7.1 A new aggregate "average of GDP and GDI" will be added to the
addenda.
1.7.5 In table 1.7.1, the addenda will also present the percent change
in current-dollar GDI.
1.7.6 In table 1.7.5, the addenda will also present the statistical
discrepancy as a percentage of GDP.
1.17.1
Under "production in the United States," a new aggregate
1.17.5 "average of GDP and GDI" will be added.
Under "final expenditures by U.S. residents," a new aggregate
1.17.6 "final sales to private domestic purchasers" will be added.
Section 3. Government Current Receipts and Expenditures
3.1 "Contributions for government social insurance" will now show
3.2 receipts "from persons" and "from the rest of the world."
world."
"Other current transfer payments to the rest of the world" will
no longer be presented net of current transfer receipts.
3.3 "Current transfer receipts" will now show receipts "from the
rest of the world."
In "current expenditures," a new aggregate "current transfer
payments" that will show "government social benefit payments to
persons" and "current transfer payments to the rest of the
world" will be added.
3.7 "Current transfer receipts from the rest of the world" will now
show total government, "federal," and "state and local"
receipts "from the rest of the world."
3.19 New "statistical difference" lines will be added to account for
differences between Census Bureau revenues and NIPA current
receipts and to account for differences between Census Bureau
expenditures and NIPA current expenditures.
3.20 "Current transfer receipts" will now show receipts "from the
3.21 rest of the world."
In "current expenditures," a new aggregate "current transfer
payments" that will show "government social benefit payments to
persons," "grants-in-aid to state governments," and "current
transfer payments to the rest of the world" will be added.
3.22 "Other current transfer payments to the rest of the world" will
no longer be presented net of current transfer receipts.
3.23 See changes for table 3.3.
Section 4. Foreign Transactions
4.1 In "current receipts from the rest of the world," a new
aggregate "current taxes, contributions for government social
insurance, and transfer receipts from the rest of the world"
will be added. This aggregate will also present details on
receipts "to persons," "to business," and "to government."
In "current payments to the rest of the world," "current taxes
and transfer payments" "from persons," "from government," and
"from business" will no longer be presented net of current
receipts.
4.2.1
In "exports of goods," "industrial supplies and materials" will
4.2.2 present additional detail under "nondurable goods": "petroleum
and products" and "nondurable goods, excluding petroleum and
4.2.3 products."
In "imports of goods," a new aggregate "industrial supplies and
4.2.4 materials" will be added. This aggregate will present details
on "durable goods" and "nondurable goods," which will now show
4.2.5 "petroleum and products" and "nondurable goods, excluding
4.2.6 petroleum and products."
4.3B Two new sections will be added. One will present the
reconciliation of ITA "secondary income receipts" with NIPA
"current taxes, contributions for government social insurance,
and transfer receipts from the rest of the world."
The other will present the reconciliation of ITA "secondary
income payments" with NIPA "current taxes and transfer payments
to the rest of the world."
Section 7. Supplemental Tables
7.7 In "payments to the rest of the world (net)," the new lines
"current transfer payments to the rest of the world" and
"current transfer receipts from the rest of the world" will be
added.
7.12 In "current receipts from the rest of the world," a new
aggregate"current taxes, contributions for government social
insurance,and transfer receipts from the rest of the world"
will be added.
"Current taxes and transfer payments to the rest of the world"
will no longer be presented net of current receipts.
