文章基本信息

标题：Real-time Forecasting of the 2014 Dengue Fever Season in Thailand
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作者：Nicholas G. Reich ; Krzysztof Sakrejda ; Stephen A. Lauer 等
期刊名称：Online Journal of Public Health Informatics
电子版ISSN：1947-2579
出版年度：2015
卷号：7
期号：1
语种：English
出版社：University of Illinois at Chicago
摘要：Real-time surveillance of an infectious disease in a third world country poses many problems that are not conventionally confronted by statistical researchers. As the first ones - to our knowledge - to attempt real-time forecasts of dengue fever in Thailand, we have faced these problems head-on in our quest to build a model that accurately predicts case counts in the presence of erratic reporting, shifting population dynamics, and potential climate change.