文章基本信息

标题：Predicting Malaria in a Highly Endemic Country using Environmental and Clinical Data Sources
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作者：Kate Zinszer ; Ruth Kigozi ; Katia Charland 等
期刊名称：Online Journal of Public Health Informatics
电子版ISSN：1947-2579
出版年度：2014
卷号：6
期号：1
语种：English
出版社：University of Illinois at Chicago
摘要：The objective of the research was to identify the most accurate models for forecasting malaria at six different sentinel sites in Uganda, using environmental and clinical data sources. We generated short-term, intermediate, and long-term forecasts of malaria prevalence at weekly intervals. The model with the most accurate forecasts varied by site and by forecasting horizon. Treatment predictors were retained in the most accurate models across all clinical sites and forecasting horizons. These results demonstrate the utility of using treatment predictors in conjunction with environmental covariates to predict malaria burden.