文章基本信息

标题：A Bayesian Approach to Absent Evidence Reasoning
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作者：Christopher Lee Stephens
期刊名称：Informal Logic
印刷版ISSN：0824-2577
出版年度：2011
卷号：31
期号：1
语种：English
出版社：Informal Logic
摘要：Normal 0 0 1 85 487 UBC 4 1 598 11.773 0 0 0 Under what conditions is the failure to have evidence that p evidence that p is false? Absent evidence reasoning is common in many sciences, including astronomy, archeology, biology and medicine. An often-repeated epistemological motto is that “the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” Analysis of absent evidence reasoning usually takes place in a deductive or frequentist hypothesis-testing framework. Instead, I develop a Bayesian analysis of this motto and prove that, under plausible assumptions about the nature of evidence, the absence of evidence is evidence of absence.
关键词：absence of evidence;arguments from ignorance;Bayesianism;evidence, evidence of absence