文章基本信息

标题：UM NOVO MODELO DE PREVISÃO DE INSOLVÊNCIA PARA O SETOR DA CONSTRUÇÃO CIVIL
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作者：Pablo Pulhese Perim ; Danilo Soares Monte-Mor ; Marco Aurélio dos Santos Sanfins 等
期刊名称：Contextus
印刷版ISSN：1678-2089
电子版ISSN：2178-9258
出版年度：2016
卷号：14
期号：2
页码：143-169
语种：Portuguese
出版社：Universidade Federal do Ceará
摘要：This study aims to propose a model that estimates insolvency risk for real estate companies through an approach that considers, in addition to the assets' quality, the mismatches between assets and liabilities on time, as well as different risks within the sector. Through Monte Carlo simulations and hypothetical examples, we show that the proposed model was able to capture mismatches between assets and liabilities and the effects of changes in the risks of credit, liquidity and engineering. In addition, our results suggest that the absence of a harmonious distribution of assets and liabilities leads to increasing insolvency risks even when the present value of total assets is greater than the present value of total liabilities.
关键词：Real Estate Sector;Insolvency risk;Monte Carlo Simulation.;Industria de la construcción. Simulación de Monte Carlo. Riesgo de insolvencia.