文章基本信息

标题：A Simulation Model for the Risk of Fetal Exposure Originated by the Zika Virus (VIZK)
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作者：Dalia M. Muñoz Pizza ; Anibal Muñoz Loaiza ; Oscar A. Manrique Arias 等
期刊名称：Health
印刷版ISSN：1949-4998
电子版ISSN：1949-5005
出版年度：2016
卷号：08
期号：12
页码：1178-1186
DOI：10.4236/health.2016.812121
语种：English
出版社：Scientific Research Publishing
摘要：It is set and analyzed a simulation model based on non-linear ordinary differential equations to interpret the dynamics of the microcephaly incidence caused by the Zika virus in a risk group of pregnant women. This one is induced by a population of men in a reproductive age. Also, some parameters of the model were estimated for an average temperature of 23℃ and by using the adjusted functions from references [1] [2]. All system simulations were done with the Maple software and parameters values obtained from several sources (estimated, hypothetic, and form literature). It has been found that the application of contraceptive measures impacts the population of sexually active women. As result, the exposure to congenital abnormalities increases, particularly, microcephaly.
关键词：Model;Microcephaly;Zika Virus;Basic Reproduction Number;Risk Group;Incidence