文章基本信息

标题：Forecast of Sarima Models: Αn Application to Unemployment Rates of Greece
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作者：Chaido Dritsaki
期刊名称：American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
印刷版ISSN：2328-7306
电子版ISSN：2328-7292
出版年度：2016
卷号：4
期号：5
页码：136-148
DOI：10.12691/ajams-4-5-1
出版社：Science and Education Publishing
摘要：The low unemployment rate is one of the main targets of macroeconomic policy for each government. Forecasting unemployment rate is of great importance for each country so as the government can draw up strategies for fiscal policy. The aim of the paper is to find the most suitable model which is adjusted on unemployment rates of Greece using Box-Jenkins methodology and to examine the precision of forecasting on this model. Models’ estimation was made using the non-linear Maximum likelihood optimization methodology (maximum likelihood–ML), whereas covariance matrix is estimated with OPG method using the numerical optimization of Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) algorithm. Forecasting unemployment rate was made both with dynamic and static process using all criteria of forecasting measures.
关键词：unemployment; SARIMA; Box-Jenkins methodology; forecasting; Greece