文章基本信息

标题：The Total Fertility Rate in Germany until 2040 - A Stochastic Principal Components Projection based on Age-specific Fertility Rates
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作者：Patrizio Vanella
期刊名称：Diskussionspapiere / Universität Hannover
印刷版ISSN：0949-9962
出版年度：2016
卷号：2016
出版社：Hannover
摘要：Demographic change is one of the greatest challenges faced by Germany as well as a large part of Europe today. One of the main drivers of this change is the low fertility level, often referred to as the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), since the early 1970s. Therefore, on the one hand, while the total population is expected to decline, on the other hand, the relative share of the elderly in the total population is expected to increase. This poses a great challenge for the society in a wide range of aspects, most notably in the statutory pension fund. Therefore, it is important to gain an understanding of the future demographic development, in our case, the course of the TFR. Official forecasts often assume that the TFR will remain at a low level of 1.4 in the long run, which was already proven wrong in the publication of the 2014 data, which shows a TFR of 1.47. However, separate analysis of age-specific fertility lead to expected increases of the future TFR
关键词：Fertility Projection; Applied Principal Component Analysis; Applied Time Series Analysis