文章基本信息

标题：The Macroeconomics of Flood: A Case Study of Pakistan
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作者：Nooreen Mujahid
期刊名称：Journal of Environment and Earth Science
印刷版ISSN：2225-0948
电子版ISSN：2225-0948
出版年度：2016
卷号：6
期号：5
页码：67-80
语种：English
出版社：The International Institute for Science, Technology and Education (IISTE)
摘要：Climate change is a real threat explicitly for developing economies as large unexpected natural disasters generate destruction for economic and socio-economic factors. We use Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) cointegration model to figure out the dynamic response of output growth to flood shocks, using time series data for Pakistan between 1981 and 2014. The aim of the paper is to assess the long and short run dynamics of floods for economic growth. The results confirm a suitable long run relationship among GDP growth and its determinants: agriculture growth, non-agriculture growth, investment and affected areas by flood. We conclude that in case of Pakistan, we have a positive and significant effect of flood shocks on GDP growth and this impact is larger and more significant in the agriculture sector.
关键词：natural disasters; GDP growth; ARDL; long run; short run; dynamics.