文章基本信息

标题：Discussion and Application Study on GDP Combination Forecasting Method
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作者：Yan LU
期刊名称：Management Science and Engineering
印刷版ISSN：1913-0341
电子版ISSN：1913-035X
出版年度：2014
卷号：8
期号：4
页码：27-31
DOI：10.3968/5622
语种：English
出版社：Canadian Research & Development Center of Sciences and Cultures
摘要：A combination model of GM (1, 1) model, nonlinear and chaotic dynamics model, and nonlinear quadratic autoregressive model for forecasting GDP has been built. As the GDP data for the test in 2012 of Henan Province, results showed that the three prediction models having higher prediction accuracy can be used for long-term GDP forecasts. Then GDP in 2013-2022 of Henan Province was forecasted by these three forecasting models and the GDP forecast results in 2013-2022 of Henan Province with geometric average of the forecasting outcome of these three forecasting models was given.
其他摘要：A combination model of GM (1, 1) model, nonlinear and chaotic dynamics model, and nonlinear quadratic autoregressive model for forecasting GDP has been built. As the GDP data for the test in 2012 of Henan Province, results showed that the three prediction models having higher prediction accuracy can be used for long-term GDP forecasts. Then GDP in 2013-2022 of Henan Province was forecasted by these three forecasting models and the GDP forecast results in 2013-2022 of Henan Province with geometric average of the forecasting outcome of these three forecasting models was given.
关键词：GDP;GM (1; 1) model;Logistic mapping;Nonlinear autoregressive model