文章基本信息

标题：The Important Role of Bayesian Statistics in the Decision Making Process and Management of Insurance Companies
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作者：Eva Kotlebová ; Ľudovít Pinda
期刊名称：International Scientific Journal of Management Information Systems
印刷版ISSN：1452-774X
出版年度：2013
卷号：8
期号：2
页码：003-007
出版社：University of Novi Sad
摘要：The article deals with the Bayesian statistics, which is appropriate in situations when there is lack of available statistical data, so that another source of information must be included into the analysis. The main mathematical principle of Bayesian approach is described. We focused on the analysis of variance, which is usually (in classical statistics) used for deciding whether the factor influences the quantitative variable. Besides this decision, The Bayesian approach also provides the possibility of estimating the groups means, different from the classical approach. Such kind of estimation (Bayesian shrinkage point estimation) is more precise, and therefore more valuable for consequential analyses and decisions. Processing real data of car insurance, the rate of influence of engine performance for the claim amount was shown and the groups means were estimated. Such estimation may be used for suggesting the insurance rate in each group for the next period.
关键词：Bayesian approach; prior distribution; posterior distribution; conjugate family; analysis of variance; shrinkage point estimation; insurance rate